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Old 09-09-2021, 09:49 AM   #1
SailinAway
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Originally Posted by FlyingScot View Post
I have not seen Win's numbers, but his interpretation is basically correct if the world does not change over the next year or if the changes sort of cancel each other out. The odds do stack up against you over time.
For me personally, the logical corollary to those odds is that I do whatever I can to mitigate them: go grocery shopping at 6:30 a.m., wear two masks (found in studies to offer more protection), practice social distancing. Although the emotional terror of the pandemic isn't the same as it was in spring 2020, I'm treating the risk as the same now as it was then. Yes, I'm vaccinated but as the effectiveness of the vaccine declines to 50% over 6 months, vaccination alone isn't enough to mitigate the odds. These other measures will be the norm for me for the foreseeable future.
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Old 09-09-2021, 11:56 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by SailinAway View Post
For me personally, the logical corollary to those odds is that I do whatever I can to mitigate them: go grocery shopping at 6:30 a.m., wear two masks (found in studies to offer more protection), practice social distancing. Although the emotional terror of the pandemic isn't the same as it was in spring 2020, I'm treating the risk as the same now as it was then. Yes, I'm vaccinated but as the effectiveness of the vaccine declines to 50% over 6 months, vaccination alone isn't enough to mitigate the odds. These other measures will be the norm for me for the foreseeable future.
I agree with your corollary--fewer potential exposures definitely translates to reduced odds to getting sick.

I think you may be too pessimistic when you say efficacy declines to 50%. The numbers I've seen are mid 70s or 80s for Pfizer--still quite good--and maybe no decline for Moderna.
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Old 09-15-2021, 07:56 PM   #3
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I think you may be too pessimistic when you say efficacy declines to 50%. The numbers I've seen are mid 70s or 80s for Pfizer--still quite good--and maybe no decline for Moderna.
You're right and I stand corrected.
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Old 09-19-2021, 03:18 PM   #4
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