Curious About Reported COVID-18 Numbers

[Major]

We need to resume to normalcy ASAP. This is no worse than a bad flu season. A complete overreaction!


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[Not to Worry]

Originally Posted by Major

We need to resume to normalcy ASAP. This is no worse than a bad flu season. A complete overreaction!


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As the body count grows you are still holding your uninformed position? Your post makes we wonder if you are serious of just trolling...I think that later is more likely.

From Barrons "“We’re getting closer,” President Donald Trump said on Wednesday. “We’re getting much closer to getting our country back to the way it was.”

White House officials are reportedly pushing to begin reopening the country on May 1, though top officials, including Surgeon General
Jerome Adams, have said that the target remains unlikely for most of the U.S.

Opening the gates and telling the nation to go about its business as if Covid-19 were a mild flu is one option. A paper from academics at Harvard and Columbia universities, published by Harvard’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, suggests that such an approach would kill two million people in the U.S. by the fall.

[Major]

Originally Posted by Not to Worry

As the body count grows you are still holding your uninformed position? Your post makes we wonder if you are serious of just trolling...I think that later is more likely.

From Barrons "“We’re getting closer,” President Donald Trump said on Wednesday. “We’re getting much closer to getting our country back to the way it was.”

White House officials are reportedly pushing to begin reopening the country on May 1, though top officials, including Surgeon General
Jerome Adams, have said that the target remains unlikely for most of the U.S.

Opening the gates and telling the nation to go about its business as if Covid-19 were a mild flu is one option. A paper from academics at Harvard and Columbia universities, published by Harvard’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, suggests that such an approach would kill two million people in the U.S. by the fall.

I'm not trolling at all. The models that caused us to shutter in place have been wrong. The Chinese coronavirus is nothing more than a bad flu year. In 2017-18, the U.S. suffered between 46,000 and 85,000 deaths from the flu with 500,000 hospitalized. The combined deaths from Chinese coronavirus and normal flu will fall within this range. What did we do in 2017-18? Nothing! This is a media- and social media-driven event. Yes, it is to be taken seriously, especially for people who have compromised immune systems, but we cannot shutter our economy and effect everyone.

We need to follow Sweden's model, and get all Americans back working. If you or someone you love is compromised, then be careful, while the rest of us get back to work.

[WinnisquamZ]

Originally Posted by Major

I'm not trolling at all. The models that caused us to shutter in place have been wrong. The Chinese coronavirus is nothing more than a bad flu year. In 2017-18, the U.S. suffered between 46,000 and 85,000 deaths from the flu with 500,000 hospitalized. The combined deaths from Chinese coronavirus and normal flu will fall within this range. What did we do in 2017-18? Nothing! This is a media- and social media-driven event. Yes, it is to be taken seriously, especially for people who have compromised immune systems, but we cannot shutter our economy and effect everyone.



We need to follow Sweden's model, and get all Americans back working. If you or someone you love is compromised, then be careful, while the rest of us get back to work.

Major, many of us here agree with your take on this event. For me, patience is running thin. No time in history have we quarantined the healthy. Those at high risk should be the ones we protect under quarantine. I believe, this week plans will start to be identified that will allow us all to get back to living our life’s



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[ApS]

Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ

Major, many of us here agree with your take on this event. For me, patience is running thin. No time in history have we quarantined the healthy. Those at high risk should be the ones we protect under quarantine. I believe, this week plans will start to be identified that will allow us all to get back to living our lives.

Professor Knut Wittowski, epidemiologist, says "Get the kids in school now".

https://www.nujournal.com/opinion/le...and-shepherds/

[JEEPONLY]

Originally Posted by Major

I'm not trolling at all. The models that caused us to shutter in place have been wrong. The Chinese coronavirus is nothing more than a bad flu year. In 2017-18, the U.S. suffered between 46,000 and 85,000 deaths from the flu with 500,000 hospitalized. The combined deaths from Chinese coronavirus and normal flu will fall within this range. What did we do in 2017-18? Nothing! This is a media- and social media-driven event. Yes, it is to be taken seriously, especially for people who have compromised immune systems, but we cannot shutter our economy and effect everyone.

We need to follow Sweden's model, and get all Americans back working. If you or someone you love is compromised, then be careful, while the rest of us get back to work.

If I'm hearing you correctly, many more people have died during "bad flu years" than will die during this pandemic.
So... maybe logic would dictate that every year we should practice social distancing, unless, of course, you want to accept a menial 46k-85k U.S. deaths per year!

My point?- No, don't just accept a death count- If you aren't part of the solution, you are part of the problem!

[chachee52]

So, here's another way of looking at the "numbers". I will be the first to tell everyone that I do NOT get the flu shot. The numbers for the flu are also skewed (not trying to start another debate on that). But the numbers for the flu are for an entire year, not 2-3 months. So to compare the numbers of the flu and Covid right now just can't be done . As others have said, opinions are opinions. As I am telling everyone the best strategy is to take the info that is given to us and come up with your own gut instinct that works best for you. But in doing so you have to respect someone else's gut instinct be cause right now, there is NOright answer!!

[Flylady]

The modeling first presented show worse case scenario, no social distancing, then with social distancing at 50% compliance and this greater levels of compliance. The number of infected and deaths dropped substantially by the level of increased compliance.

The flue data is an annual number. If the worse case scenario (no nothing) projected 3000 deaths per day, that would be 180,000 in 2 months and would increase incrementality each month.

So the good news is with social distancing the numbers are averaging 1000 deaths per day. That is 60,000 in two months or 180,000 in 6 months.

I think it is much to early to state the models got it wrong. Also, as previously stated, China's numbers can not be trusted. In the U.S. people that have died in nursing homes or at home from Covid 19 or related causes are NOT being included in the numbers as of yet, although CDC has issued updated guidelines about death certificate completions.

[TheProfessor]

Some folks get the complexity and enormity of this disease whilst others do not.

One analogy is the Black Death Plague of the Middle Ages. Scientifically, not the same. To some the consequences potentially could be similar.

This disease began in November 2019 in China. Identifying it and naming it came later.

Governor Sununu now has 30 Emergency Orders.
He has access to information from his own staff. The scientific community. Other governors. And the federal government.

[VitaBene]

Originally Posted by JEEPONLY

So... maybe logic would dictate that every year we should practice social distancing, unless, of course, you want to accept a menial 46k-85k U.S. deaths per year!

Yes, as long as you are OK with decimating the world economy. But the US will not have the money to spread around the globe doing good during a depression. Call me naive but I do believe we do more good than bad.

This is classic risk versus reward. We do it everyday. I know that it is way safer to sit in my garage typing this than it is to take an old motorcycle for a ride (which I will do when I hit send) or jump on a boat and head out on the lake to fish or go to an island home.

I'm not saying I disagree with what we did, I agree. I am also fortunate to be able to work from home, but usually would be in the field 40%. We need to restart our economy in a measured fashion.

[Billy Bob]

Originally Posted by Not to Worry

As the body count grows you are still holding your uninformed position? Your post makes we wonder if you are serious of just trolling...I think that later is more likely.

From Barrons "“We’re getting closer,” President Donald Trump said on Wednesday. “We’re getting much closer to getting our country back to the way it was.”

White House officials are reportedly pushing to begin reopening the country on May 1, though top officials, including Surgeon General
Jerome Adams, have said that the target remains unlikely for most of the U.S.

Opening the gates and telling the nation to go about its business as if Covid-19 were a mild flu is one option. A paper from academics at Harvard and Columbia universities, published by Harvard’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, suggests that such an approach would kill two million people in the U.S. by the fall.

Has to be a troll. You can’t be as uninformed and as rigid in your thinking as this guy pretends to be.

[Seaplane Pilot]

Originally Posted by Billy Bob

Has to be a troll. You can’t be as uninformed and as rigid in your thinking as this guy pretends to be.

So just because Major (and many others) disagree with your position, that makes him a troll? Typical lame argument from the left. “We’re right, everyone else is wrong”.

[Not to Worry]

Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot

So just because Major (and many others) disagree with your position, that makes him a troll? Typical lame argument from the left. “We’re right, everyone else is wrong”.

I do not believe anyone has ever said I am from the left. I try to deal in facts versus fiction. I think that just makes me informed versus right or left. Today too many define news that they do not like or agree with as fake. Very few of those people check into the story to find the hard core facts to back up their believes. Not sure what you would call a person who does this but maybe just uninformed. The world is facing a pandemic and people are dying. How many? Who knows since China and Russia are not telling the truth and even in the US our numbers are not accurate, since all agree that those who are infected are a much higher number than is reported.

People are dying and the ENTIRE worlds governments are responding (albeit too slow in the US) The experts all agree that if we reopen too soon more will die that do not need to die. This is simply a fact. There is nothing to argue. What that does to the economy I doubt we can accurately predict. I fear just like anyone with a brain, that we
would could end up in a depression but that is the price we will pay for China's arrogance in not dealing the virus when maybe it could have been contained.

[Major]

Originally Posted by Not to Worry

I do not believe anyone has ever said I am from the left. I try to deal in facts versus fiction. I think that just makes me informed versus right or left. Today too many define news that they do not like or agree with as fake. Very few of those people check into the story to find the hard core facts to back up their believes. Not sure what you would call a person who does this but maybe just uninformed. The world is facing a pandemic and people are dying. How many? Who knows since China and Russia are not telling the truth and even in the US our numbers are not accurate, since all agree that those who are infected are a much higher number than is reported.

People are dying and the ENTIRE worlds governments are responding (albeit too slow in the US) The experts all agree that if we reopen too soon more will die that do not need to die. This is simply a fact. There is nothing to argue. What that does to the economy I doubt we can accurately predict. I fear just like anyone with a brain, that we
would could end up in a depression but that is the price we will pay for China's arrogance in not dealing the virus when maybe it could have been contained.

There’s a lot to argue. The numbers speak for themselves, and the earlier models on which we based our decisions were wrong.

There is a socio-economic impact to this. Like it or not, there is dignity in work. Most of our self esteem comes from doing well at our jobs. What we are experiencing now is the left’s dream - replacing the dignity of work with a government check.

I am disgusted by our response to this.


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[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by Major

There’s a lot to argue. The numbers speak for themselves, and the earlier models on which we based our decisions were wrong.

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Were the earlier models wrong, or are data used to initiate the models different now due to social distancing? How many runs do they perform, changing the initial conditions to determine what different inputs have on the outcome? Looks like I need to find those modeling websites.

I do agree that the economy needs to start running soon. Disagree that we should just turn the switch back on.



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[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by gillygirl

Were the earlier models wrong, or are data used to initiate the models different now due to social distancing? How many runs do they perform, changing the initial conditions to determine what different inputs have on the outcome? Looks like I need to find those modeling websites.

I do agree that the economy needs to start running soon. Disagree that we should just turn the switch back on.



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Agreed with the two above. I think there's a balance to be found between mitigating risk and shutting the country down.

I was at Home Depot yesterday, and they seemed to strike the perfect balance: it's open but minimizing the number of people in the store and making sure people keep distance (floor markings) and employees are safe (gloves/masks/barriers).

I'm wondering if that works for restaurants and other businesses as well: every other table, cleaning supplies available, shortened hours to thoroughly clean overnight...

I'd be interested to know what the business owners on here think—I don't know that I've seen their opinions on their opinions for their businesses.

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[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I'm wondering if that works for restaurants and other businesses as well: every other table, cleaning supplies available, shortened hours to thoroughly clean overnight...


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That’s how Florida started out with restaurants. 50% capacity. It worked great, but of course it’s hard to drink or eat through a mask.


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[kawishiwi]

Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot

So just because Major (and many others) disagree with your position, that makes him a troll? Typical lame argument from the left. “We’re right, everyone else is wrong”.

Actually, "We're right, everyone else is wrong" could be YOUR username.

[Seaplane Pilot]

Originally Posted by kawishiwi

Actually, "We're right, everyone else is wrong" could be YOUR username.

I didn’t see comedians on the Governor’s list of essential businesses. Please go back to “cowering in place”. CNN is calling.

[The Real BigGuy]

Originally Posted by Major

We need to resume to normalcy ASAP. This is no worse than a bad flu season. A complete overreaction!


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Not that long ago you were saying what’s the big deal, we didn’t over react like this when H1N1 hit in 2009. We’ll, H1N1 gave us (US) about 18,500 deaths in a little over a year and we are now CV-19 is over 20,000 in about 4 months. Is your next comparison going to be to the Black Plague?


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[AB_Monterey]

Originally Posted by Major

We need to resume to normalcy ASAP. This is no worse than a bad flu season. A complete overreaction!


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No, it's not.

[iw8surf]

Someone said this wont stop until we get a vaccine.... Well we cant even get people to give their kids "required" vaccines for school you think we will be able to the entire world to get a vaccine? Nope

[Newbiesaukee]

Originally Posted by iw8surf

Someone said this wont stop until we get a vaccine.... Well we cant even get people to give their kids "required" vaccines for school you think we will be able to the entire world to get a vaccine? Nope

Although I understand what you are saying, it is not quite accurate.

We know that no vaccine prevents any disease 100%. Not everyone will get vaccinated. However, the idea is if a percentage of the population is immune, it greatly lowers the chance of the virus spreading. The higher the percentage vaccinated, the less the risk of spread.

Philosophically, it will be interesting to see the priorities established in who gets vaccinated first....the most susceptible ( such as the elderly ) or those of future generations ( the young who seem to be less susceptible or less likely to die)? Or, those deemed most valuable to society....health care workers, truck drivers, etc? Not trying to start another argument just too much time to think.

[Paugus Bay Resident]

My wife and I we're watching the 10 Commandments over the weekend. Charlton Heston (as Moses) made a somewhat timely speech, "The strong produce many, the weak produce few and the dead produce nothing."

Agree that the economy needs to be cranked up, just not smart enough to figure out how.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by iw8surf

Someone said this wont stop until we get a vaccine.... Well we cant even get people to give their kids "required" vaccines for school you think we will be able to the entire world to get a vaccine? Nope

The people who don't get their kids vaccinated are very small extraordinarily gullible groups (spread across the political and socio-economic spectrum). A dim witted Hollywood actor or cult-like religious leader reads something from an internet quack, and then persuades his neighbors. These neighbors, like all young parents, are terrified of anything that hints at danger for their babies, so they vulnerable. The reason it gets press is that our herd immunity starts for fail when we fall below 90% compliance.

Also keep in mind that with covid, we are coming from the other direction in terms of the problem--we are not fighting to eradicate something very rare, such as measles or mumps; we are fighting to slow the spread of something rampant. So a vaccine that has a relatively low compliance rate will still help a lot.

[ApS]

Originally Posted by Major

We need to resume to normalcy ASAP. This is no worse than a bad flu season. A complete overreaction

Found on the Internet this morning, , and thought member Major would agree:

"Open the damned economy. If you're old and frail, keep on socially distancing yourself, but you don't get to dictate the loss of livelihoods to the rest of the citizenry, nor burden the rest of us with fascism".

[Bear Islander]

So it seems the argument is that the shut down is an over reaction.

These people have it wrong

President Trump
The Governor of New Hampshire
CDC
All Democratic Leaders
Almost all Republican leaders
All the doctors, nurses and health care professionals

However a handful of people on this forum have it right???

If you want me to take you even a little bit seriously, point me to some medical doctors that agree with your position.

[ApS]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

So it seems the argument is that the shut down is an over reaction.

These people have it wrong

President Trump
The Governor of New Hampshire
CDC
All Democratic Leaders
Almost all Republican leaders
All the doctors, nurses and health care professionals

However a handful of people on this forum have it right???

If you want me to take you even a little bit seriously, point me to some medical doctors that agree with your position.

This MD?

"Most economies, including that of the US, can’t survive the strong lockdown medicine for a whole year. Let’s use data from serology tests to get a full picture of the iceberg, craft policies that protect the elderly and avoid an economic catastrophe that will negatively impact public health for years."

Ariel Pablos-Mendez, M.D., MPH
(US Agency for International Development (USAID)
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/arch...erd-mentality/

[Newbiesaukee]

Originally Posted by ApS

This MD?

"Most economies, including that of the US, can’t survive the strong lockdown medicine for a whole year. Let’s use data from serology tests to get a full picture of the iceberg, craft policies that protect the elderly and avoid an economic catastrophe that will negatively impact public health for years."

Ariel Pablos-Mendez, M.D., MPH
(US Agency for International Development (USAID)
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/arch...erd-mentality/

Ignoring that the Ronpaul institute is not exactly nonpartisan, the quote itself from Dr. Pablos-Mendez seems perfectly reasonable. The problem is that the serology tests,let alone the PCR tests for the virus, are not yet widely enough used to be able to get valid data to reach any realistic decisions about when to open up the economy.

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by ApS

This MD?

"Most economies, including that of the US, can’t survive the strong lockdown medicine for a whole year. Let’s use data from serology tests to get a full picture of the iceberg, craft policies that protect the elderly and avoid an economic catastrophe that will negatively impact public health for years."

Ariel Pablos-Mendez, M.D., MPH
(US Agency for International Development (USAID)
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/arch...erd-mentality/

This doctor is NOT in agreement with your position. His position is that lockdown for a whole year would be catastrophic. I think we all agree with that. Here is another quote from the same article.

"We either save lives by going on total lockdown or we go back to business as usual and sacrifice the lives of those most at risk."

[AB_Monterey]

When someone tells you they want to open the economy now, just ask them what their number of acceptable deaths are. Just give is a number.

Go from there.

[Garcia]

I hear open the economy a lot. Just curious - what do people mean? Reopen all the schools, bars, restaurants, businesses, etc. on some predetermined day, say May 4? Is there a more gradual plan? Do we leave decisions up to individual business owners, school systems, and people to do as they please or is the government, federal, state, or local, in charge of setting parameters in place?

I'm curious to hear some concrete, tangible ideas, from just declare it a hoax and move on to clamp down even more until there are no more cases.

[gravy boat]

Originally Posted by AB_Monterey

When someone tells you they want to open the economy now, just ask them what their number of acceptable deaths are. Just give is a number.

Go from there.

Other side of the coin and a question for YOU: What is the acceptable number of US Citizens who lose their livelihood and cannot house, cloth or feed themselves or their family? What is the acceptable number - or percentage - of mortgage defaults for you? " Just give us a number. Go from there."

We are sole proprietors and our business - and income - has come to a standstill. I am not retired with known monthly income. I don't live off of the profits of selling a business. I don't live off of a trust fund. What I do rely on is companies hiring employees as we are recruiters and we get paid only when we place someone with a company.

It seems you have no problem with millions of people like me - or those worse off - losing most if not everything. You feel it's okay that I lose my business, my house, my Toyota Highlander and have to surrender my two dogs and two cats because I have no home?

Not trying to be "sassy" - well, okay, maybe a little - but I am weary of the "let's force the majority of 328 million US citizens to sacrifice everything to save thousands." Do I want anybody to die? Obviously not. But there comes a time when life goes on and risks must be accepted - and those forced to sacrifice refuse to accept it any longer. And that time will be here before you know it.


GB

[Garcia]

Originally Posted by gravy boat

Other side of the coin and a question for YOU: What is the acceptable number of US Citizens who lose their livelihood and cannot house, cloth or feed themselves or their family? What is the acceptable number - or percentage - of mortgage defaults for you? " Just give us a number. Go from there."

We are sole proprietors and our business - and income - has come to a standstill. I am not retired with known monthly income. I don't live off of the profits of selling a business. I don't live off of a trust fund. What I do rely on is companies hiring employees as we are recruiters and we get paid only when we place someone with a company.

It seems you have no problem with millions of people like me - or those worse off - losing most if not everything. You feel it's okay that I lose my business, my house, my Toyota Highlander and have to surrender my two dogs and two cats because I have no home?

Not trying to be "sassy" - well, okay, maybe a little - but I am weary of the "let's force the majority of 328 million US citizens to sacrifice everything to save thousands." Do I want anybody to die? Obviously not. But there comes a time when life goes on and risks must be accepted - and those forced to sacrifice refuse to accept it any longer. And that time will be here before you know it.


GB

Thanks! My question is how do you envision things opening back up? Do schools open but require all to wear masks? Do businesses simply open back up or must they limit the number of customers? I am really curious as to what people think is the way things should, or should not, reopen.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by Garcia

Thanks! My question is how do you envision things opening back up? Do schools open but require all to wear masks? Do businesses simply open back up or must they limit the number of customers? I am really curious as to what people think is the way things should, or should not, reopen.

I envision things opening up based on concentration levels—space and numbers. So, restaurants and shops with capacity limits, etc. I don't see schools opening for a bit just given the numbers of people in the space.

I agree with above, though, that at some point we need to figure out a solution—not just for the economy, but for America's mental and social health.

I'm incredibly interested in seeing how this changes the American way of life. Are we done shaking hands as a greeting?!

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[gravy boat]

Originally Posted by Garcia

Thanks! My question is how do you envision things opening back up? Do schools open but require all to wear masks? Do businesses simply open back up or must they limit the number of customers? I am really curious as to what people think is the way things should, or should not, reopen.

That is going to be the challenge for sure. For the rest of this year I hear schools are doing remote, which makes sense. And when restaurants open should they start with limited hours and/or number allowed at one time for 2 weeks, then more allowed for the next 2 weeks and then full capacity at week 4? Wish I had the answers.

GB

[4 for Boating]

Well everyone knows the ground rules now - keep your distance / wash your hands / wear a mask...

Seems to be working for places like Lowes / Walmart / Cumberland Farms/Mobile / Dunkin / Hardware stores / Liquor Stores... At some point this is going to have to be put into the hands of the public and small businesses to control and be smart about how they conduct themselves.

School-wise > I would not be surprised if they never go back this year as it's starting to get near the end of the school year as it is.

[Seaplane Pilot]

Originally Posted by gravy boat

Other side of the coin and a question for YOU: What is the acceptable number of US Citizens who lose their livelihood and cannot house, cloth or feed themselves or their family? What is the acceptable number - or percentage - of mortgage defaults for you? " Just give us a number. Go from there."

We are sole proprietors and our business - and income - has come to a standstill. I am not retired with known monthly income. I don't live off of the profits of selling a business. I don't live off of a trust fund. What I do rely on is companies hiring employees as we are recruiters and we get paid only when we place someone with a company.

It seems you have no problem with millions of people like me - or those worse off - losing most if not everything. You feel it's okay that I lose my business, my house, my Toyota Highlander and have to surrender my two dogs and two cats because I have no home?

Not trying to be "sassy" - well, okay, maybe a little - but I am weary of the "let's force the majority of 328 million US citizens to sacrifice everything to save thousands." Do I want anybody to die? Obviously not. But there comes a time when life goes on and risks must be accepted - and those forced to sacrifice refuse to accept it any longer. And that time will be here before you know it.


GB

I just heard a statistic on the radio by a member of the President's economic team: (paraphrasing) "For every 1,000,000 that go on unemployment, 17,000 people will die from alcoholism, drug overdoes, suicide, etc."

So at the rate we're going, 10mm unemployed will result in 170,000 deaths. Far worse than deaths from the virus. Wake up America.

I heard the Star Spangled Banner being played this morning as well. I've heard this countless times before, but the last line hit me today more than it ever has: "O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!"

Right now it appears we are neither free or brave. Sad....

[ApS]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

This doctor is NOT in agreement with your position. His position is that lockdown for a whole year would be catastrophic. I think we all agree with that. Here is another quote from the same article. "We either save lives by going on total lockdown or we go back to business as usual and sacrifice the lives of those most at risk."

I don't think I've actually stated my position; but you'll find me in favor of "herd immunity". National recovery starts with an 80% exposure, and that begins with the children.

What Massachusetts is doing is the exact opposite of what is needed! Did US media Panic drive their reaction?

Put K-12 back in school--now. The reason? They're that one third of the population that needs immunity by acquiring the disease. By far, they're also most likely to survive the COVID-19 flu. Remember the "German Measles" parties?

The workforce is composed of the people who drive this necessary economy and will need to shoulder this flu, just as they did in annual flus of the past.

The most endangered are those 65 and older; worse, if they have typical "co-morbidities".

They're the people who must stay in, must wash hands, and must not socialize.

Yesterday, I broke my isolation: Traffic was surprisingly busy. With only one exception, everyone was wearing masks, including all employees.

While not the best solution, I'd found a painters mask, glued a new elastic to it, and "looked the part". Pharmacies are out of antiseptics and masks. Groceries still stock no paper products.

Thinking about it later, replacement elastics could be cut from clothing to keep "outdated" masks in use.

In accord with the Florida governor's direction, a sign was posted at the grocery store saying, no one will check out without proof of residency. That, I noticed, had nobody to enforce it. This isn't the "disciplined" Japan or Germany, so they're not asking for "your papers" yet.

The formerly acceptable yellow hurricane-return window-stickers, needed to enter the county after Hurricane Irma, were discovered to be mostly forged!

New York, which "cooked their books", should wait, but expect communities to open up one-by-one. Texas and Louisiana have already started.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by ApS

I don't think I've actually stated my position; but you'll find me in favor of "herd immunity".

This of course is exactly the opposite of what every expert recommends--the premise of herd immunity is that we STEEPEN the curve. I'm pretty sure Boris Johnson also thought this was a good idea...

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by ApS

I don't think I've actually stated my position; but you'll find me in favor of "herd immunity".


In accord with the Florida governor's direction, a sign was posted at the grocery store saying, no one will check out without proof of residency. That, I noticed, had nobody to enforce it. This isn't the "disciplined" Japan or Germany, so they're not asking for "your papers" yet.

Sweden is going with the “herd immunity” option. Their death rate is 9%, globally it’s 6%, and FL and NH are 2.5% and 2%, respectively. Who’s doing it right here?

Please provide the number of the executive order that DeSantis allegedly signed with regards to proof of residency. I’ve been unable to find it.


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[VitaBene]

Originally Posted by gillygirl

Sweden is going with the “herd immunity” option. Their death rate is 9%, globally it’s 6%, and FL and NH are 2.5% and 2%, respectively. Who’s doing it right here?

Please provide the number of the executive order that DeSantis allegedly signed with regards to proof of residency. I’ve been unable to find it.


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We have zero (0) clue about infection rates in any country. Trying to figure out percentages of anything when a minuscule sample has been tested is meaningless. We won't know who was "right" for years.

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by VitaBene

We have zero (0) clue about infection rates in any country. Trying to figure out percentages of anything when a minuscule sample has been tested is meaningless. We won't know who was "right" for years.

Unfortunately, I think the testing sample will always be small in most places.


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[ApS]

Originally Posted by gillygirl

Sweden is going with the “herd immunity” option. Their death rate is 9%, globally it’s 6%, and FL and NH are 2.5% and 2%, respectively. Who’s doing it right here?

Sweden never stopped their children from attending school. Denmark did, and their children start next week.

So, I guess we'll find out; that is, depending on how they've recorded their stats.

Sweden takes exceptional care of their seniors, with "welfare-checking" a frequent and automatic function; oftentimes, cared-for in individual home units.

"Closed Swedish cities", as Malmö is becoming, will skew results.

Originally Posted by gillygirl

Please provide the number of the executive order that DeSantis allegedly signed with regards to proof of residency. I’ve been unable to find it.

I won't be back at that sign for awhile, but maybe have located something helpful:

Executive Order 20-91 (1).pdf

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by ApS

I won't be back at that sign for awhile, but maybe have located something helpful:

Executive Order 20-91 (1).pdf

Nothing in there about requiring IDs. Try fact checking before you post this type of stuff. Or take a picture as proof of what you saw, because, as a result of your posting history, I think you made it up.


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[ApS]

Newbiesaukee—
Ignoring that the Ronpaul institute is not exactly nonpartisan, the quote itself from Dr. Pablos-Mendez seems perfectly reasonable. The problem is that the serology tests, let alone the PCR tests for the virus, are not yet widely enough used to be able to get valid data to reach any realistic decisions about when to open up the economy.

Ron Paul is equally objectionable to left or right.
Emirates Airlines seems to have useful serology. Will Emirates Airlines be issuing "Immunity Passes" to play doubles-tennis in Michigan?

Originally Posted by gillygirl

Nothing in there about requiring IDs. Try fact checking before you post this type of stuff. Or take a picture as proof of what you saw, because, as a result of your posting history, I think you made it up.

Actually, an ID showing residency is required to enter this County. Familiar, prominent (but fraudulent) IDs were uncovered, and you can slip-by Deputies by using a boat.

So...I go by today, and the paper sign I saw yesterday is gone, and a plastic sign—posted more prominently—has a shorter message, consistent with even Michigan's restrictive regulations:

[Flylady]

Originally Posted by ApS

I don't think I've actually stated my position; but you'll find me in favor of "herd immunity". National recovery starts with an 80% exposure, and that begins with the children.

What Massachusetts is doing is the exact opposite of what is needed! Did US media Panic drive their reaction?

Put K-12 back in school--now. The reason? They're that one third of the population that needs immunity by acquiring the disease. By far, they're also most likely to survive the COVID-19 flu. Remember the "German Measles" parties?

The workforce is composed of the people who drive this necessary economy and will need to shoulder this flu, just as they did in annual flus of the past.

The most endangered are those 65 and older; worse, if they have typical "co-morbidities".

They're the people who must stay in, must wash hands, and must not socialize.

Yesterday, I broke my isolation: Traffic was surprisingly busy. With only one exception, everyone was wearing masks, including all employees.

While not the best solution, I'd found a painters mask, glued a new elastic to it, and "looked the part". Pharmacies are out of antiseptics and masks. Groceries still stock no paper products.

Thinking about it later, replacement elastics could be cut from clothing to keep "outdated" masks in use.

In accord with the Florida governor's direction, a sign was posted at the grocery store saying, no one will check out without proof of residency. That, I noticed, had nobody to enforce it. This isn't the "disciplined" Japan or Germany, so they're not asking for "your papers" yet.

The formerly acceptable yellow hurricane-return window-stickers, needed to enter the county after Hurricane Irma, were discovered to be mostly forged!

New York, which "cooked their books", should wait, but expect communities to open up one-by-one. Texas and Louisiana have already started.

So your assumption that children get immunity because they are young and less likely to die from it I guess also includes that the same children bring it home to their parents and or grandparents? Unfortunately too many adults in this country including FL. have one or more underlying conditions that put them at higher risk. Thus why the herd immunity concept would never work in the U.S.

[Mr. V]

Think of the pandemic as placing the USA onto a "wartime footing," where decisions are made to help ensure its citizens' survival above all else.

Yeah, our current response to the virus has temporarily hurt the economy but it is saving a heck of a lot of lives, lives whose value I believe eclipses 401-k growth.

We need to be selfless, not selfish, in these difficult times.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by Flylady

So your assumption that children get immunity because they are young and less likely to die from it I guess also includes that the same children bring it home to their parents and or grandparents? Unfortunately too many adults in this country including FL. have one or more underlying conditions that put them at higher risk. Thus why the herd immunity concept would never work in the U.S.

Actually a lot of kids these days are just as unhealthy - obesity and vaping are identified as possible significant risk factors. Both are widespread amongst the youth of this country.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Actually a lot of kids these days are just as unhealthy - obesity and vaping are identified as possible significant risk factors. Both are widespread amongst the youth of this country.

You forgot video games....

Dan

[Not to Worry]

Sure open things up. Let the death toll mount and then we all get to see what the USA would like if the virus spread unfettered. What is happening at Smithfield Foods is simply a "taste" of what would happen if we fully reopen.

From Time. "The world’s biggest pork producer is shuttering a major U.S. plant indefinitely after a coronavirus outbreak among employees, with the company warning that closures across the country are taking American meat supplies “perilously close to the edge” of shortfalls.

Smithfield Foods will idle its Sioux Falls, South Dakota, pork-processing facility, which accounts for 4% to 5% of U.S. production, the company said in a statement Sunday. The move comes after state officials reported more than 200 cases of Covid-19 for plant employees, adding to a spike in infections that’s seen hundreds of American meat workers get sick. Plants have been forced to shutter or reduce output.

“The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply,” Smithfield’s Chief Executive Officer Ken Sullivan said in the statement. “It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running.”

If people cannot understand and extrapolate from what is happening at Smithfield Foods when they opine this is just a bad flu then they are simply ignorant of the facts. This is not a political debate, COVID-19 is an exestential threat that as of today cannot be stopped. Efforts to contain it are working and buying the doctors and scientists of the world time to work on treatment and a vaccine.