Official 2013 Ice-Out Thread

[Merrymeeting]

Certainly a long stretch of well below normal temps, and it's going to last until Wednesday or Thursday! No March ice-out this year!

[Just Sold]

This winds were clearing the lake of snow today but there will be plenty of snow added on Tuesday. I was in Alton Bay and even the Merrymeeting River entering the Bay had a thin skim of ice around noon today. Ice Out is a ways off.

[dippasan]

My wife and I walked over to Sleepers Isl yesterday (Saturday) with the dog from near the West Alton sandbar area. The ice was snow covered so the walking was easy and took no more than 10 mins or so. We didn't drill any holes but I used a heavy ice scraper to check it. It sure looked as though the ice was plenty thick the whole way across. Honestly, we probably could have drove over in the truck!!!! We felt that safe. Ice out will probably be a while sorry to say.

Anyway is was good to get out there and check things out and think about the season to come.

[Winnisquamguy]

This is from the Farmer Almanac...I always just like to look at it.

March 2013
16th-19th. Unsettled, gusty winds, with mixed rain and wet snow.
20th-23rd. A major coastal storm with strong winds and heavy precipitation.
24th-27th. Showers from Virginia and Maryland to New England, then fair.
28th-31st. Another coastal storm! More wind, rain and snow, just in time for Easter.

April 2013
1st-3rd. No fooling: very unsettled Mid-Atlantic States through New England, then fair.
4th-7th. More wetness.
8th-11th. Pleasant spell.
12th-15th. Rain unfortunately coincides with Patriot's Day in Massachusetts and Maine.
16th-19th. Sunny skies.
20th-23rd. Windy and showery; squalls along the coast; heavy rain for Mid-Atlantic States. Followed by improving weather.
24th-27th. Sunny and pleasantly mild.
28th-30th. Heavy rains, followed by fair skies.

May 2013
1st-3rd. Fair and dry.
4th-7th. Scattered thunderstorms for Mid-Atlantic States; showers into New England; all followed by clearing.
8th-11th. Very unsettled; widespread thunderstorm activity for Maryland, Virginia.
12th-15th. Clearing and pleasant.

[This'nThat]

Daytime highs in the lower 30's, nighttime lows of 10-15 simply isn't good ice-out weather lately, is it? I'm beginning to wonder which will come first -- ice-out, or bike week?

[Resident 2B]

I made the worse Ice-Out Guess I have ever made. Most weather models show a much colder than normal period for the next ten days with two snow storms possible within the next week.

At this point, if the models are correct, ice out will likely be after April 20.

R2B

[Belmont Resident]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

I made the worse Ice-Out Guess I have ever made. Most weather models show a much colder than normal period for the next ten days with two snow storms possible within the next week.

At this point, if the models are correct, ice out will likely be after April 20.

R2B

Ya that is what they have been saying for the last week now. Below normal temps through the end of the month.
I'm thinking May something.

[Happy Gourmand]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

I made the worse Ice-Out Guess I have ever made. Most weather models show a much colder than normal period for the next ten days with two snow storms possible within the next week.

At this point, if the models are correct, ice out will likely be after April 20.

R2B

Of course...I just bought a new boat!!!

[upthesaukee]

You are forgetting the ancient mantra of New England weather..If you don't like it, wait a few minutes...it is bound to change.

[Jeanzb1]

To Phantom Gourmand: We bought our first boat in mid-October and haven't put it in the water yet. We are CHOMPING AT THE BIT for an early ice-out, too. Can't bear hearing late April or early May....ay yi yi.

[This'nThat]

Originally Posted by upthesaukee

You are forgetting the ancient mantra of New England weather..If you don't like it, wait a few minutes...it is bound to change.

Most people tend to attribute that saying to Mark Twain, although I've not seen this confirmed. However, he did give a speech about New England weather at the New England Society's 71st annual dinner, NYC, Dec 22 1876. Here's an excerpt, for your entertainment:

Mark Twain: I reverently believe that the Maker who made us all makes everything in New England but the weather. I don't know who makes that, but I think it must be raw apprentices in the weather-clerk's factory who experiment and learn how, in New England, for board and clothes, and then are promoted to make weather for countries that require a good article, and will take their custom elsewhere if they don't get it.

There is a sumptuous variety about the New England weather that compels the stranger's admiration -- and regret. The weather is always doing something there; always attending strictly to business; always getting up new designs and trying them on the people to see how they will go. But it gets through more business in spring than in any other season.

In the spring I have counted one hundred and thirty-six different kinds of weather inside of four-and-twenty hours. It was I that made the fame and fortune of that man that had that marvelous collection of weather on exhibition at the Centennial, that so astounded the foreigners. He was going to travel all over the world and get specimens from all the climes. I said, "Don't you do it; you come to New England on a favorable spring day." I told him what we could do in the way of style, variety, and quantity. Well, he came and he made his collection in four days. As to variety, why, he confessed that he got hundreds of kinds of weather that he had never heard of before. And as to quantity -- well, after he had picked out and discarded all that was blemished in any way, he not only had weather enough, but weather to spare; weather to hire out; weather to sell; to deposit; weather to invest; weather to give to the poor.

Yes, one of the brightest gems in the New England weather is the dazzling uncertainty of it. There is only one thing certain about it: you are certain there is going to be plenty of it -- a perfect grand review; but you never can tell which end of the procession is going to move first. You fix up for the drought; you leave your umbrella in the house and sally out, and two to one you get drowned. You make up your mind that the earthquake is due; you stand from under, and take hold of something to steady yourself, and the first thing you know you get struck by lightning. These are great disappointments; but they can't be helped. The lightning there is peculiar; it is so convincing, that when it strikes a thing it doesn't leave enough of that thing behind for you to tell whether-- Well, you'd think it was something valuable, and a Congressman had been there.

And the thunder. When the thunder begins to merely tune up and scrape and saw, and key up the instruments for the performance, strangers say, "Why, what awful thunder you have here!" But when the baton is raised and the real concert begins, you'll find that stranger down in the cellar with his head in the ash-barrel.

[chasedawg]

Time to retire Punxutawney Phil.

According to folklore, if a groundhog emerges from its burrow and see its shadow, then six more weeks of winter weather is on the way.
But if it comes out and sees no shadow, spring is expected to come early.

Here is what happened this year. He did not see his shadow thus the prediction for early spring. WRONG!

NYC Mayor Curses the Groundhog.

Punxsutawney, the Pennsylvania town that is home to one of the most famous weather-predicting groundhogs, Punxsutawney Phil, has been carrying on the tradition of Groundhog Day since the 1800s.

[Winnisquamguy]

Originally Posted by chasedawg

Time to retire Punxutawney Phil.

According to folklore, if a groundhog emerges from its burrow and see its shadow, then six more weeks of winter weather is on the way.
But if it comes out and sees no shadow, spring is expected to come early.

Here is what happened this year. He did not see his shadow thus the prediction for early spring. WRONG!

NYC Mayor Curses the Groundhog.

Punxsutawney, the Pennsylvania town that is home to one of the most famous weather-predicting groundhogs, Punxsutawney Phil, has been carrying on the tradition of Groundhog Day since the 1800s.

I went to google to see what I could find out about just how accurate he is. Here is part of the article.

According to Stormfax.com, Punxsutawney Phil has only been correct approximately 39% of the time. Of course, long range forecasts can be difficult to predict for the human forecaster. For example, the 2012-2013 winter outlook for the United States was supposed to have equal chances to see a wet/dry and cold/warm winter as the lack of an El Niño and La Niña made the forecast rather difficult to predict.
As of February 1, 2013, 49% of the United States is covered in snowfall. At this time in 2012, only 19.2% of the nation had snow. So with regard to winter activity, 2013 has definitely been a better snow-maker than 2012. For most winters, everyone typically hopes Phil does not see his shadow in hopes of an early spring. But this year, it seems like many places haven’t had their average snowfall for the winter, so many people might be hoping Phil will see his shadow. It might become a celebration for the skiing resorts if Phil does see his shadow, which statistically, has happened roughly 87% of the time.
Groundhog via Rick LaClaire
Here’s another question to ask: Can we be more specific? For instance, there are multiple we groundhogs in various states that get used to predict whether we’ll see an early spring. Shouldn’t we have one designated groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil to make it official? I mean, that’s not a polite way to treat Phil! If meteorologists use various silly “numbers” that rate your weather day or use random tornado indexes, then mass confusion would occur. We need one set of rules, and Phil should be the official one. Right?


To read the rest he is the website.http://earthsky.org/earth/groundhog-...xsutawney-phil

[upthesaukee]

...they talked about the lake being free of ice and the seacoast beaches being crowded...temps in the 70's.

What a difference a year makes.

[Belmont Resident]

Originally Posted by upthesaukee

...they talked about the lake being free of ice and the seacoast beaches being crowded...temps in the 70's.

What a difference a year makes.

A year or two of mild winters and people forget what a good old fashioned New England winter really is.

[chasedawg]

Just think, we opened our place for the summer a year ago today. It was the earliest Ice-Out ever March 23, 2012. A year later, we may challenge the latest Ice-Out ever which was May 12, 1888. Could it happen? It sure looks that way.
You just don't know.

I knew we shouldn't have ordered that new boat