Official 2013 Ice-Out Thread
 

This is the official 2013 Ice-Out thread. If you reply to this thread all of the information about this year's ice-out will be easily accessible. Post your observations, concerns, pictures and whatever else comes to mind re: ice-out.

The Ice-Out page is up at http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm. There you will find all of the images to watch the ice melt as well as links to special ice out features such as Saunder's Bay daily picture with information about previous year's ice out.

Ice-out has occured in recent years from 39-41 degrees as reported by the Winnipesaukee Dataphone at the Lakeport Dam. You can also observe the 2 ft and 10 ft temps rising at http://www.blackcatnh.com/ (just under the Black Cat Island Weather Cam picture)

Thanks IG....you're the best.

Tick, rock
 

Now it officially begins. Met with island neighbors and friends tonight and planned first island party for right after Ice Out to begin season. can't wait

It will be a while.
 

Channel 7 yesterday said to expect below normal temps and above normal precipitation through the end of this month. It is only March!
Possible major snow or rain storm for Monday into Tuesday.
16 degrees out here in Belmont as I head out to my morning gym routine.

Lets hope for rain...I am sticking with my guess of April 8th for ice-out.

I like the aggressive pick my friend. I really hope it happens...

By the looks of today's ice, it doesn't look good but change can happen quickly.

Well, we're planning on leaving Florida on April 4th and arriving at the lake on the 5th -- weather permitting! As long as there is no snow on our little private road, we'll be there! Do you think we're nuts?

No one coming to the lake is crazy
 

Our passion knows no bounds! Then again, you might want to bring a shovel. This is New England!

"T" minus 10 and counting!
 

Just knowing the ice out thread is on the forum is enough to get me excited.

Counting the days

I was thinking April 13th a few days ago but if the long range predictions stick it could drop back into the April 20s. I didn't get my guess into the contest this year because the link never showed on the Ice Out page...bummer.

Let's hope for some heavy rain this week coming up...

Ice
 

With the temps as cold as they were last night I noticed areas around Black Cat that were open refroze and the ice looked pretty thick.
Looking at the next week the ice should be rebuilding with those temps down in the mid to low teens at night and only on the mid to low 30's during the day. :eek:
As for the storm a lot of us are still looking for that money that last winter shorted us. I'm hoping for a couple of more storms myself. :D

My guess for ice-out is April 17

I drilled a hole in Alton Bay this morning and there was still 16" of solid ice...

I'd say its gonna be a while before ice out!

Certainly a long stretch of well below normal temps, and it's going to last until Wednesday or Thursday! No March ice-out this year!

This winds were clearing the lake of snow today but there will be plenty of snow added on Tuesday. I was in Alton Bay and even the Merrymeeting River entering the Bay had a thin skim of ice around noon today. Ice Out is a ways off. :(

Walked to Sleepers
 

My wife and I walked over to Sleepers Isl yesterday (Saturday) with the dog from near the West Alton sandbar area. The ice was snow covered so the walking was easy and took no more than 10 mins or so. We didn't drill any holes but I used a heavy ice scraper to check it. It sure looked as though the ice was plenty thick the whole way across. Honestly, we probably could have drove over in the truck!!!! We felt that safe. Ice out will probably be a while sorry to say.

Anyway is was good to get out there and check things out and think about the season to come.

This is from the Farmer Almanac...I always just like to look at it.

March 2013
16th-19th. Unsettled, gusty winds, with mixed rain and wet snow.
20th-23rd. A major coastal storm with strong winds and heavy precipitation.
24th-27th. Showers from Virginia and Maryland to New England, then fair.
28th-31st. Another coastal storm! More wind, rain and snow, just in time for Easter.

April 2013
1st-3rd. No fooling: very unsettled Mid-Atlantic States through New England, then fair.
4th-7th. More wetness.
8th-11th. Pleasant spell.
12th-15th. Rain unfortunately coincides with Patriot's Day in Massachusetts and Maine.
16th-19th. Sunny skies.
20th-23rd. Windy and showery; squalls along the coast; heavy rain for Mid-Atlantic States. Followed by improving weather.
24th-27th. Sunny and pleasantly mild.
28th-30th. Heavy rains, followed by fair skies.

May 2013
1st-3rd. Fair and dry.
4th-7th. Scattered thunderstorms for Mid-Atlantic States; showers into New England; all followed by clearing.
8th-11th. Very unsettled; widespread thunderstorm activity for Maryland, Virginia.
12th-15th. Clearing and pleasant.

Cold temps just keep pushing the date further out
 

Daytime highs in the lower 30's, nighttime lows of 10-15 simply isn't good ice-out weather lately, is it? I'm beginning to wonder which will come first -- ice-out, or bike week?

I made the worse Ice-Out Guess I have ever made. Most weather models show a much colder than normal period for the next ten days with two snow storms possible within the next week.

At this point, if the models are correct, ice out will likely be after April 20.

R2B

Ya that is what they have been saying for the last week now. Below normal temps through the end of the month.
I'm thinking May something.

Of course...I just bought a new boat!!! :(

Ye of little faith....
 

You are forgetting the ancient mantra of New England weather..If you don't like it, wait a few minutes...it is bound to change. :rolleye1:

To Phantom Gourmand: We bought our first boat in mid-October and haven't put it in the water yet. We are CHOMPING AT THE BIT for an early ice-out, too. Can't bear hearing late April or early May....ay yi yi.:rolleye2:

Most people tend to attribute that saying to Mark Twain, although I've not seen this confirmed. However, he did give a speech about New England weather at the New England Society's 71st annual dinner, NYC, Dec 22 1876. Here's an excerpt, for your entertainment:

Mark Twain: I reverently believe that the Maker who made us all makes everything in New England but the weather. I don't know who makes that, but I think it must be raw apprentices in the weather-clerk's factory who experiment and learn how, in New England, for board and clothes, and then are promoted to make weather for countries that require a good article, and will take their custom elsewhere if they don't get it.

There is a sumptuous variety about the New England weather that compels the stranger's admiration -- and regret. The weather is always doing something there; always attending strictly to business; always getting up new designs and trying them on the people to see how they will go. But it gets through more business in spring than in any other season.

In the spring I have counted one hundred and thirty-six different kinds of weather inside of four-and-twenty hours. It was I that made the fame and fortune of that man that had that marvelous collection of weather on exhibition at the Centennial, that so astounded the foreigners. He was going to travel all over the world and get specimens from all the climes. I said, "Don't you do it; you come to New England on a favorable spring day." I told him what we could do in the way of style, variety, and quantity. Well, he came and he made his collection in four days. As to variety, why, he confessed that he got hundreds of kinds of weather that he had never heard of before. And as to quantity -- well, after he had picked out and discarded all that was blemished in any way, he not only had weather enough, but weather to spare; weather to hire out; weather to sell; to deposit; weather to invest; weather to give to the poor.

Yes, one of the brightest gems in the New England weather is the dazzling uncertainty of it. There is only one thing certain about it: you are certain there is going to be plenty of it -- a perfect grand review; but you never can tell which end of the procession is going to move first. You fix up for the drought; you leave your umbrella in the house and sally out, and two to one you get drowned. You make up your mind that the earthquake is due; you stand from under, and take hold of something to steady yourself, and the first thing you know you get struck by lightning. These are great disappointments; but they can't be helped. The lightning there is peculiar; it is so convincing, that when it strikes a thing it doesn't leave enough of that thing behind for you to tell whether-- Well, you'd think it was something valuable, and a Congressman had been there.

And the thunder. When the thunder begins to merely tune up and scrape and saw, and key up the instruments for the performance, strangers say, "Why, what awful thunder you have here!" But when the baton is raised and the real concert begins, you'll find that stranger down in the cellar with his head in the ash-barrel.

Ice-Out??
 

Time to retire Punxutawney Phil.

According to folklore, if a groundhog emerges from its burrow and see its shadow, then six more weeks of winter weather is on the way.
But if it comes out and sees no shadow, spring is expected to come early.

Here is what happened this year. He did not see his shadow thus the prediction for early spring. WRONG! :eek:

NYC Mayor Curses the Groundhog.

Punxsutawney, the Pennsylvania town that is home to one of the most famous weather-predicting groundhogs, Punxsutawney Phil, has been carrying on the tradition of Groundhog Day since the 1800s.

I went to google to see what I could find out about just how accurate he is. Here is part of the article.

According to Stormfax.com, Punxsutawney Phil has only been correct approximately 39% of the time. Of course, long range forecasts can be difficult to predict for the human forecaster. For example, the 2012-2013 winter outlook for the United States was supposed to have equal chances to see a wet/dry and cold/warm winter as the lack of an El Niño and La Niña made the forecast rather difficult to predict.
As of February 1, 2013, 49% of the United States is covered in snowfall. At this time in 2012, only 19.2% of the nation had snow. So with regard to winter activity, 2013 has definitely been a better snow-maker than 2012. For most winters, everyone typically hopes Phil does not see his shadow in hopes of an early spring. But this year, it seems like many places haven’t had their average snowfall for the winter, so many people might be hoping Phil will see his shadow. It might become a celebration for the skiing resorts if Phil does see his shadow, which statistically, has happened roughly 87% of the time.
Groundhog via Rick LaClaire
Here’s another question to ask: Can we be more specific? For instance, there are multiple we groundhogs in various states that get used to predict whether we’ll see an early spring. Shouldn’t we have one designated groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil to make it official? I mean, that’s not a polite way to treat Phil! If meteorologists use various silly “numbers” that rate your weather day or use random tornado indexes, then mass confusion would occur. We need one set of rules, and Phil should be the official one. Right?


To read the rest he is the website.http://earthsky.org/earth/groundhog-...xsutawney-phil

On the news last night on Ch 9...
 

...they talked about the lake being free of ice and the seacoast beaches being crowded...temps in the 70's.

What a difference a year makes.

Amazing
 

A year or two of mild winters and people forget what a good old fashioned New England winter really is. :cool:

Ice-Out??
 

Just think, we opened our place for the summer a year ago today. It was the earliest Ice-Out ever March 23, 2012. A year later, we may challenge the latest Ice-Out ever which was May 12, 1888. Could it happen? It sure looks that way.
You just don't know.

I knew we shouldn't have ordered that new boat

New England's varied weather
 

How's this for an example of how different New England's weather can be from year to year...
The April Fool's Blizzard - March 31 - April 1, 1997 - dumped 27 inches at my house in Reading, MA.
One year later, almost to the day - March 30, 1998 - it was 88 degrees!

It would be really cool to set new records in back to back years for ice out.
I'm rooting for late May :eek:
Come on old man winter, don't let me down. :D

Whoa BR!!!
 

I just paid my dock fee for the summer, and boat is to go in the water the 1st week in May!!!!! :eek::D:rolleye1:

It's amazing what a year can make in the weather isn't it???:)

From this http://i52.tinypic.com/zsju6w.gif to this http://i55.tinypic.com/dvhszk.gif

Yes but
 

Ice out means the mount can go to each port. You can still have your boat in the water at the dock and watch the ice melt, drink some cold beers in your winter parka.. :D :D :D
Channel 7 just extended the below normal temps and above normal precipitation into the first week of April.

thanks BR
 

By then, I should be able to get under the bridge (hopefully) and do a chug chug cruise out to Sandy Point and back, or at least to the Bandstand and back. :laugh:

Why under the bridge and out to the bandstand is one of the first areas to open up. You will be taking mini rides while my boat is still hanging up at Fay's!

Getting "under the bridge" can be an issue for some boats when the lake level is high. That is often the case in the spring.

R2B

Yes, a year ago we had temps in the 60's and were waiting for the official word...I had just pulled the boat out of the garage to get it ready for opening day.
Here we are 3/23/12 putting the dock in. :D

And then there is today...still snowing :(

Very Interesting.......
 

While I'm not rooting for any May Ice Out.....The late time frame tends to make the Global Warming / Climate Change thing kind of a farce. When I watch some of the programming on "Nat Geo" I always wait for the political statement at the end, and they never disappoint me. We always get the "and mankind has done more to ruin the earth than any one event in the world's history" Oh please!! Just show me the tiger cubs and shut up already!!
As for Ice Out....I didn't get my guess in on time so ...My boat goes in the water May 4th. As long as I can float at my dock with a beverage in hand (mittens on or not) I think it's a win. Before too long we'll be complaining about the excessive heat and humidity:)

Wave 'cuz I'll be wavin' back
The Breeze

A sheet of ice one mile thick centered on New York City might -- and I say might -- also be an event that would ruin one's day.

What gets me are the nuts who say "Don't burn that oil" are the same ones who also complain about it getting warmer.

Frankly, there is only one thing I would miss if we never, ever had another Ice-In on Winni -- the official Ice-Out thread!

Can we PLEASE keep this thread to the joy and fun of ice-out anticipation, and take the commentary on global warming to another place and time?

Thank you. Now back to our regularly scheduled discussions about ice-out...

In a word -- no. The Webmaster is free to remove my posts at any time, and to remove me as a member of this forum. A global warming comment is as appropriate as a Punxsutawney Phil comment, and no one complained about that. We also had a comment from a person regarding their return to the lake, and one regarding New England's varied weather. No one scolded them.

So, my advice is to let it be. Stop jumping in to complain about any and all posts you don't like. Instead, complain to the web master so that all us offending people can be banned, never to be heard from again.

A little Zanex anyone?
 

I thought the re-direct at the end of my post was going to cover my behind enough to at least be humorous.:D Oh well ....can't please em all. Thanks TnT

These guys couldn't wait for Ice-Out....make sure to zoom in:
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=43.58...t=h&gl=us&z=17

One year ago today we made our first 2012 trip to Welch, raised the flag and lowered the seasonal dock. Calm day maybe about 60 degrees.

Today we had a very nice time skiing on fresh powder at Gunstock. Fantastic conditions. Now we would rather have been boating over to Welch but as they say, if life gives you lemons make lemonade.

BTW, we were on the second chair at opening but we were the 1st skiers (except for ski patrol) down Gunsmoke crossing to middle Recoil. Someday I'll learn to ski in several inches of fresh powder without landing on my face at least once.:D

Slickcraft Bend the knees. Powder is a great way to ski, but you have to watch the changing conditions. I learned the hard way too, with many mothfuls of snow.

What is a mothful??

It's without "U"

It sure is a lot different this year. We had two trips in by the end of March last year. Let's hope for a warm April...

Today's Weirs Cam
 

What an amazing day at the lake today! The shot from the Weirs Cam tells it all! Way off in the distance near Eagle Island the ice looks dark and maybe water. Is there anyone out on Governors or at Dockham Shores with a view out that direction. Maybe some open water between Governors and Eagle?

The Breeze
Wave 'cuz I'll be wavin' back:D

All I can see is snow, lots of snow and ice...


Someone closed the curtain on the Varney Point Cam :D

View From Welch
 

Here's today's view from Welch... I plan on walking out this weekend as there is still plenty of ice.

Another Ice-Out Contest
 

One of our advertisers is running an Ice-Out Guess Contest with a dock installation as the prize. Click on the image below to enter.

Keep in mind though it is not just a contest, you need to book them to do work for you. If you win the contest, the job or a portion thereof depending on services desired, is free.

Thank you codeman for clarifying, it's a contest for our new and existing customers.

It also applies to mooring inspections and swim raft spring installations.

-Mike

Phil indicted for fraud
 

OK the death penalty may be a little harsh but the rascal should not get off with just a slap on the paw.

Phil
 

I heard that he is fighting extradition

I always thought that when Phil saw his shadow there wouild be 6 more weeks of winter and jf he didn't see his shadow then there would be a month and half more of winter. So far it works as good as the other way.

Historical Ice-Out Dates
 

In case anyone needs this information, this is the list of Ice-out dates since records have been kept (since 1888). We have a ways to go before we hit the normal, expected ice-out date.

Plenty of Ice
 

We are definitely looking at a late April ice-out, I just came off the ice and checked thickness in several place 12-14" of good ice.

I am switching marinas this year (no trailer) and the old one is splashing on the 11th of May. Don't want to be dodging sheets of ice going from one to the other. Late April would be great for me.

You're right. That's a hole lot of ice you showed in that picture.

18" of ice off Levitt Beach, more like mid January today than mid March. Yep it's going to be a while. Nice to get back out the camp, nice and quiet all day long.

Ice
 

Glad I scrambled to get the bob house off ... Can't win these days !

You probably did the right thing...the shoreline is not good, I fell through three times today trying to get back on shore at our place.

If you can't beat it, join in.
We had a great weekend at the island, since we couldn't enjoy a cocktail on the dock we made do with drinks on the ice where our dock would be. :D

BIS,

Would you mind sharing the source of where you got those chairs???

BT

The Country Cottage on Rte 104

http://www.countrycottagefurniture.c...ly-adirondacks

Not so beach like on the NE side of Bear, taken on Saturday. Wind was blowing hard and my sled was getting buried in a snow drift after sitting out there for about 6-7 hours. Still great to get one last trip out before the conditions don't allow for safe travel.

Looked and felt more like mid January than 3rd week in March!

Blue Thunder, I also sell Adirondack chairs that are made from 100% recycled plastic bottles, UV resistant-no color fade,Stainless hardware, made in the USA and extremely comfortable, stop by my place on Cow Island and you can try them out or stop by my show rooms in Concord or Manchester, NH. www.empirepoolsnh.com or www.seasidecasual.com [url]

I have no interest in this company other then they were neighbors in our industrial complex several years ago, but I did buy several of their outdoor furniture pieces. Adirondack chairs, and all of their furniture is made of red cedar and is simply beautiful. It also handles the outdoors great. I've been leaving my chairs out in the winter for over 5 years and they are still in great shape. Take a look. http://www.baldwinfurniture.com/

Common folks they aren't that hard to make, my Dad made a couple that are beautiful, matter of fact they are better than the "professionally" made ones I already had:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/home...orking/2919751

Sorry I digress back to ice out discussion!

Skied to the island on Sunday
 

Just a quick update that the ice is still pretty thick between the Rattlesnake Island landing and the island itself. I skied out late yesterday afternoon, testing with an ice ax several times and was never able to break through. My cousin was talking with an ice fisherman in Alton Bay on Saturday who said it was about 12" in the bay.

16" on the Tuftonboro side of Cow Island about 4-5" of snow on top, Fishing was decent for the first time in a long time in our area. real quite on the Island this weekend

due to unforseen circumstances.....Ice out has been cancelled this year :laugh:

22 inches at the mouth of twenty mile bay Saturday. Trucks still on the ice.

Starting today some stronger sun and higher temps through the weekend will provide some good melting. By April 1 there shouldn't be any snow left here, in Laconia, other than some dirty snow banks (no foolin'). Last year at this time the lake was wide open after a very mild March. This weeks temps are slightly warmer than last year and the lake temp is about 4 degrees cooler. We are looking at 3 more weeks till "ice-out".

Putting the bass boat in the water Sunday. Let the pre spawn fishing begin!

so I guess my guess of April 4th is out
que the red sox theme (and even possibly the Patriots these past few years)
"there's always next year"

80 In The Sun!
 

Temps like this today in the sun will certainly speed things up!! Wish the heck I was out there!

Sat in the sun on the dock for a couple hours today. It was great seeing the lake bottom. I saw a few spiders and got buzzed by a flying insect. Two minuscule things that scream spring. Canadian geese were patrolling the shore looking for a yard to do their thing. I made sure they saw my two large Maine Coons who were inquisitively watching them.
Spring has sprung!:cool:

I do believe I heard a bat squeaking in my barn last night...the first of the year.

Going to be ROUGH trolling Monday!
 

I was just watching a man ICE FISHING, on my Paugus Bay camera. I guess that means I won't be out there in my fishing boat Good Stuff, on Monday, for opening day, trolling along, sun sparkling off the water, loving life, wondering how I got so lucky to be able to take part in the opening day expectations............LOL....

Not so fast!
 

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...-pano-1200.jpg

From a mile up over Gunstock, we shot the entire lake. I don't think you'll see much open water. Ice out does not look to be soon. The full screen version is at http://tinyurl.com/Winnipesaukee. You can scroll from Meredith to Alton.

Great picture of the entire lake - thanks Flyguy
I have a large format color copier I will try and print it out.

I second that....awesome picture. Where was something like this during ice-in :)

I have been sitting on the dock watching the two fish on the east side of Big Island since 11:00. Lots more melting today..:)

Just plotted it poster size 24" x 124" - very cool

That is an amazingly good picture. How do you put all of the images together so seamlessly? Nice job!

View from Alton Bay bridge
 

Still a long ways from the bandstand but a tiny bit of a start. Recent snow has mostly melted, still grey slush on most of the lake. Hopefully we will see some darkening of the ice soon.

It will probably be shoulder to shoulder Monday on the bridge as well as the Mt. Washington dock.

plus thee will be the inevitable 4-6 guys in canoes or yaks floating around that football field piece of open water....should be fun to watch on the cam.

Sorry Mike
 

Alton Bay cam appears to be down, and will be staying down for the foreseeable future. :(

Observing from far away....
 

That's why I put in a thank you to Slickcraft for his picture from the bridge. Being 300 miles away, I miss the Alton Bay webcam and appreciate the photos taken by those who are there year-round. Will have to wait 4-5 weeks more to see that view in person again.

Just back from a drive from Alton to Gilford and back. It's going to be awhile. Still no dark areas showing. I didn't even see any cracks that would normally be showing water seepage.

But most of the shoreline is showing retreat, and areas that have bubblers are expanding. The nice and sunny weather the next few days will help. But we most likely have 2-3 weeks to go.

First Boat of The Season
 

Saw a pontoon boat on the Wiers Cam at 10:29 AM today when you do the time lapse play back. http://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=weirscam

My local pond
 

that I use as a reference usually ices out about 3 weeks before Winni. It was ice free on Wednesday. Lets hope it's not longer!

I noticed that you live in Danville. Do you mean Long Pond?

I looked and did not see a pontoon boat, however there is a boat that shows up at the dock on the Anchor Marine Cam at 10:30.

similar sign
 

There are some nearby rocks in the middle of the lake that heat up and start a plume of melt to the south three weeks before ice-out. The plume has appeared. Looking at around the third week of April. We'll see.