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Old 12-25-2021, 02:17 PM   #1
fatlazyless
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Question NH: -3.3% gdp; 3rd qtr 2021

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept of Commerce this chart .... https://www.bea.gov/system/files/qgdpstate1221.png .... shows New Hampshire came in last, tied with North Dakota, for the third quarter, Thursday, July 1 to Thursday, September 30, 2021 with a real domestic product decrease of minus 3.3%.

"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 37 states and the District of Columbia in the third quarter of 2021, as real GDP for the nation increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent. The percentage change in real GDP in the third quarter ranged from +6.0 percent in Hawaii to -3.3 percent in New Hampshire and North Dakota."

https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-...d-quarter-2021 ..... Dec 23, 10-am

As a casual observer on the New Hampshire lakes region economy, I submit this decrease was due to all the many, many cars and trucks stuck in traffic, going nowhere at the BIG MEREDITH INTERSECTION of Routes 3 & 25 ..... you probably know it well ..... that big bad slow stoplight intersection. Is similar to that great big intersection high up in the sky, once you get there, you basically go nowhere, any more. .....

Come on now ..... how's people gonna spend any money iffn they is stuck at that stop light and is just stopped there, going nowhere? ....

If the big intersection had got rebuilt as a roundabout, say ten years ago, then you just know the GDP would have been more like Maine +1.7%, or Vermont +0.4%, or even like Massachusetts +3.7% because all three of these plus GDP states believe in the roundabout as a way to keep the traffic mooo-ving along. To make a positive GDP you need to make the traffic be mooo-ving ...... it's that simple ...... just mooove it along with a roundabout is the way to do it! ....

Ummmm ....... ya-knowwww ...... this is not exactly rocket science here ...... roundabouts are round, like a wheel, and keep the traffic mooo-ving along ..... while stop light intersections are basically a square and have a red stop light that makes the traffic come to a stop ....

This big Meredith intersection is located at almost the exact geographic center of the State of N.H. If-fn you was to measure out all the distances of the state going north, south, east and west .... out from this intersection .... to the border edges of the state .... and it's always like one big red stop light for stopping all the traffic when it could have been a roundabout, instead. Now, it will probably take another forty years of stopped traffic, there, before it actually becomes a roundabout which is too bad, but that's the way these reconstruction road projects usually mooove along ...... very slooowly ..... like 40-years slooowly untii the year 2062! ..... so's you need to get used to not going nowhere and having a negative GDP for poor little N.H. ....
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Old 12-25-2021, 09:10 PM   #2
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The real GDP is measured by relieving inflation.

NH does poorly because it is not a high commodity state, and tourism... though spoken of... is not a high driving in the state economy.

A rich commodity state would see their GDP rise as the commodity is inflated beyond the median inflationary rate.

When the price of a 2x4x8 from the local mills declined from $8 down to less than $5... this helped to create the negative GDP even though the output of the lumber may have been higher. For this quarter, the 2x4x8 has reinflated... so the real GDP should adjust upward.
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Old 12-26-2021, 05:36 AM   #3
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From the Lowe's website, it says a 2"x4"x8' lumber stud costs the same, $5.48, at both the Dedham, Massachusetts and Gilford, New Hampshire stores. $5.48 at both stores yet the gdp for Massachusetts was up +3.7% while the gdp for New Hampshire was down -3.3% at the same time, in the third quarter of 2021.

Driving around Dedham Mass and Gilford NH it takes about two seconds to notice many differences between the two areas so what's the reason why Mass was up +3.7%, and N.H. was down -3.3% ?
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Old 12-26-2021, 12:19 PM   #4
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Those are #2, or sometimes worse. They were $3.50.

NH's only real commodity is wood. Though they list ''agriculture'' as our third highest industry... it is almost all wood.

So as that item dropped from your $5.48 down to $3.50, lumber producing states took a hit on their ''agricultural'' ledger. Now that it is back up, the part of the ledger will return.

TransparentNH has the tourism number up about 8.7% over the third quarter period of 2020. If they are comparing it to the summer before the pandemic, then the numbers would be the decline due to tourism.

Our best tourism numbers came just prior to the pandemic and have not recovered. But the largest summer tourism (3rd quarter) - which makes up the greatest share of our annual tourism - is generated by the seacoast... with the Lakes Region coming in second... and the Mount Washington Valley coming in third.

The traffic situation in Meredith seems to be generated by the location of the I93 access in New Hampton and the amount of build out of Moultonborough.
Being one of the few public boat ramps onto Lake Winnipesaukee makes it worse... and then the crosswalk from the Mill to the public docks increases the situation. Add in the location of the grocery store/etc and you get that sort of traffic snarl.

Same thing happens in Tilton between Market Basket, Walmart, and the I93 access.

I went into Bristol for lunch one day, and noticed they seem to have the same problem in downtown Bristol... though not sure of all the factors on why being new to that area.
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Old 12-26-2021, 06:10 PM   #5
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It seems that whenever I look for 2x4’s at HD and L I can only find “W” grade.




Warped…
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Old 12-26-2021, 07:01 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 8gv View Post
It seems that whenever I look for 2x4’s at HD and L I can only find “W” grade.




Warped…
When you take any lumber into a controlled environment space... it tends to warp. The lower the grade to start with the worse the warping.
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Old 12-26-2021, 07:08 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 8gv View Post
It seems that whenever I look for 2x4’s at HD and L I can only find “W” grade.




Warped…
Go to Hancock Lumber in Wolfeboro and get fir.
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Old 12-26-2021, 09:25 PM   #8
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At the Lowe's in Gilford .... waiting for you!

https://www.lowes.com/pd/Sierra-Paci...d-1/5001997955

..... if this link actually works ..... see any knots? .... this a stud with no knots .... this is totally impossible? .....

Yes, it is totally reasonable to say this one item, an eight foot stud is totally responsible for the 3.3% decline in NH-gdp in the third quarter, 2021. .....
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Old 12-26-2021, 11:03 PM   #9
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Tourism didn't decline, nor manufacturing output, according to the TransparentNH numbers. In fact tourism was up 8.7... so third quarter inflation would have need to be higher than 8.7, and much closer to 12, for tourism to create the negative.


The only thing that declined in the third quarter was the price of NH's largest commodity.

Hancock gets its lumber from the same mills that everyone else does, and it is SPF (Spruce/Pine/Fir - Fir generally being Hemlock) as they don't get separated in New England.

If you ask for FIR, most of us will think Douglas Fir from the west coast... that is special ordered through several wholesaler outlets.

https://www.thomasnet.com/articles/p...lumber-grades/

The only thing straighter than a #1 would be an engineered timberstrand.
But even those when stored inside will twist or check.
It is why all the lumberyards store it outside under cover.

Last edited by John Mercier; 12-27-2021 at 12:22 AM.
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Old 12-27-2021, 06:00 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Mercier View Post
Tourism didn't decline, nor manufacturing output, according to the TransparentNH numbers. In fact tourism was up 8.7... so third quarter inflation would have need to be higher than 8.7, and much closer to 12, for tourism to create the negative.


The only thing that declined in the third quarter was the price of NH's largest commodity.

Hancock gets its lumber from the same mills that everyone else does, and it is SPF (Spruce/Pine/Fir - Fir generally being Hemlock) as they don't get separated in New England.

If you ask for FIR, most of us will think Douglas Fir from the west coast... that is special ordered through several wholesaler outlets.

https://www.thomasnet.com/articles/p...lumber-grades/

The only thing straighter than a #1 would be an engineered timberstrand.
But even those when stored inside will twist or check.
It is why all the lumberyards store it outside under cover.
You are wrong, John. Hancock is following what Winnipesaukee Lumber did and their fir IS from the west coast ordered WAY ahead of time and delivered by railroad car to NE.
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Old 12-27-2021, 06:25 PM   #11
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Sorry. We had heard that Hancock was going to switch to Eastern Spruce Premium #1 from its own mill and go after the higher quality contractor market.
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