Official 2015 Ice-Out Thread

[Island Girl]

This is the official 2015 Ice-Out Thread. If you reply to this thread all of the information about this year's ice-out will be easily accessible to our forum friends.

Today is the first day of Spring (6:45 PM EDT)

Post your observations, concerns, pictures and whatever else comes to mind re: ice-out. Did I say pictures? We love your pictures.

The Ice-Out page is up at http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm. There you will find all of the images to watch the ice melt as well as links to special ice out features such as Saunder's Bay daily picture with information about previous year's ice out. (I will post link when it is available. this link if for 2014 and previous years)

Ice-out has occurred in recent years when the lake temperature is from 39-41 degrees as reported by the Winnipesaukee Dataphoneat the Lakeport Dam. Today the temp is 33 degrees. Previous years include 2014-35 degrees, 2013-37 degrees and in 2012-41 degrees! We have a lot of warming up to do.

Many anticipate a late Ice-out this year, so we need some rain dancers... and some warming up to prove them wrong.

Let's get on with our favorite activity ... Ice-Out!

[smith point boater]

If we could get some warm temps to go along with todays wind we wouldn't have to worry about a late ice out!!! Very windy out there today 3 degrees here with wind chill

[trfour]

My ice out guess date, since FOREVAH, has been May 5th and it's look'in good so far this year. The last Ice Out Date on May 5th was back in 1956 when Global Warming was just a glimmah in Al G's eye.
Funny how two of my Brother's that live, one in North Carolina, and the other lives in Georgia got snowed in this winter. So who knows, but if I should win I'll be donating my prize to one of the earlier guess contendahs...

Terry
________________________________

[Paugus bay girl]

A lot of rain, wind and warm temps forecasted for Wed night/ Thursday into Friday. This will certainly speed up the ice/snow melt. Bring on summer! I have been ready since November!

[Chaos]

shows the lake temps rising. Looks to be almost 2 degrees at both depths since last week!

[Katy D]

I am going with April 22nd

[gokart-mozart]

If you picked March 25 - you lost!

[Rattlesnake Gal]

The ice is starting to look different!

Lake Winnipesaukee Weathercam

Water Temperature at 2 ft: 34.8°F

Water Temperature at 10 ft: 36.8°F

[Chaos]

chunks of ice moving around on the Weirs Cam and Anchor Marine Cam Time lapse videos. Even if they are small ones.

[Accipiter290]

Echo Shores time lapse cam shows the edge of the ice slowly but consistently receding! I have high hopes that it won't be a record late ice-out.

[Grant]

Definitely getting the splotchy, mottled look. Puddles. Clock is ticking. When will the Silver Sands annual cam go live? I keep checking.

[DRH]

Originally Posted by Accipiter290

Echo Shores time lapse cam shows the edge of the ice slowly but consistently receding! I have high hopes that it won't be a record late ice-out.

The Echo Shores Webcam time-lapse feature allows the user to select the time frame to be displayed. The default setting is "Today", but you can also select "24 hours", "Yesterday", "One Week" or "One Month".

Give the "One Week" and "One Month" settings a try - they are quite interesting!

[nhcatrider]

The ice on the Merrimuck river in Concord disappeared over the last 24 hours, so it shouldn't be much longer.

[LadyJane]

my April 27 guess isn't looking too bad

[Irish Choppers]

April 22nd!

[Paugus bay girl]

Wow looking at the lake today, looks still solid as a rock. I have a feeling the Mount will have to cancel or postpone its Mothers Day cruise this year.This is outside my house on Paugus Bay at 4:30 today.

[GodSmile]

Despite the dire comments still hoping for an April ice out. A little global warming wouldn't hurt

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

All it takes is a few mild days and some rain and wind. Last year proved that.

[2DAMTS]

Wow looking at the lake today, looks still solid as a rock. I have a feeling the Mount will have to cancel or postpone its Mothers Day cruise this year.This is outside my house on Paugus Bay at 4:30 today.


Sheesh! Still waiting for my pool to have ice out! Still one solid block of ice!

[Merrymeeting]

Originally Posted by GodSmile

Despite the dire comments still hoping for an April ice out. A little global warming wouldn't hurt

Like this? Warmer than New Durham today!

http://www.examiner.com/article/anta...place-on-earth

[Happy Gourmand]

Ice out was declared this morning at 8:13 AM. Let summer begin!!

[Island Girl]

The last time the lake temp was this low on April 1 was in 2001 (4-2-01 34 degrees)

Ice-Out that year was May 2.

We could use some incredibly warm days. The 10-day forecast is not promising for 03810.

[JakeLake]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

The last time the lake temp was this low on April 1 was in 2001 (4-2-01 34 degrees)

Ice-Out that year was May 2.

We could use some incredibly warm days. The 10-day forecast is not promising for 03810.

Friday Into Saturday holds some promise.. sustained winds around 20MPH for a couple hours in Laconia on Saturday following a warm Friday.. Still a long way to go. (May 5th-10th )

[Steveo]

I wish this was an April's Fools joke but it is not...

Pictures taken from scenic view on Rt 11 in Alton and my home in the middle of Alton Bay. This stuff will never melt, at least a month to go:

[Chaos]

Just checked the BlackCat cam and the water temp is trending nicely upward. I realize the sun has a big effect, but at these temps, the ice has to be melting from below, please someone agree

[Island Girl]

Chaos, I agree that the ice will melt from the bottom as well as the top. The rising temps indicate we are on the way... a slow start for sure. The reading from the Winnipesaukee Data Phone is 34 degrees. That is up a degree from earlier in the week.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Mild and raining last night after a sunny day. Today we come close to 70 with sun and more rain to follow tonight. Lots of wind tomorrow afternoon, 30mph+ and some sun. Temps for next week are in the 40's with the pattern turning milder towards weeks end.
Patriot's Day is looking better and better for ice out.
Lake temp up a couple degrees since last week. Lake level rising too.

[Blue Thunder]

Great write up by Barry at Silver Sands.
http://nhboat.com/Nhboat/Features/ice/ice-out2015.htm
BT

[Paugus bay girl]

Was out by Paugus today you could see the heat waves rising off the ice! Sign of serious melting, then rain and wind tonight and early morning tomorrow!

[Steveo]

I look forward to Silver Sands cam shots and Barry's forecast every year and can't wait to follow the evolving cam shots. I really appreciate that they show the previous years so you get excited that it might happen earlier than it is looking.

Thanks Barry and Silver Sands!!!

[Blue Thunder]

Today's MODIS view shows just a hint of darkening on the Big Lake. Sebago, however is looking way ahead at this point with a couple of areas of open water visible in the center of Big Bay.

[meredith weekender]

we seem to be making progress. the top pick is from today and the bottom pic from the beginning of the week.

[Merrymeeting]

While the daytime temps this week will continue to be below normal, the nights are going to stay above, or slightly below, freezing. The melting does accelerate when there is little to no refreezing during the nights. The water temps below also continue to rise (up a degree, to 35, yesterday).

Three weeks from today, April 27th, that's my plan! :-)

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

While the daytime temps this week will continue to be below normal, the nights are going to stay above, or slightly below, freezing. The melting does accelerate when there is little to no refreezing during the nights. The water temps below also continue to rise (up a degree, to 35, yesterday).

Three weeks from today, April 27th, that's my plan! :-)

That's my plan too ;-) It may actually be sooner.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

While the daytime temps this week will continue to be below normal, the nights are going to stay above, or slightly below, freezing. The melting does accelerate when there is little to no refreezing during the nights. The water temps below also continue to rise (up a degree, to 35, yesterday).

Three weeks from today, April 27th, that's my plan! :-)

Some rain/wind in the forecast will also help. I noticed the overnight lows are favorable for melting. That's a big factor.
The forecast is much warmer and sunnier starting Saturday through next week.

The lake has risen a few inches over the past few days and Lakeport reports water temp at 36.

These floats were not visible a week ago. The snow atop Paugus is gone and the ice is being eaten both above and below. I still say April 20, Patriot's Day, will be the day.

[Water Camper]

Was up to the lake yesterday, no ice along shore line. Looking good, I may be too much of an optimist, but I'm sticking with April 15th.

Maybe wishful thinking,
Bill

[MDoug]

Got our reservation to fly up May 2 on Jet Blue!

[Misha888]

snowmobiling in and out of Smith Cove, as of yesterday. Brave souls.

[Paugus bay girl]

The Weather Cam shows 39 degrees at 10 ft! Ice out happens not long after we reach that point.

[Merrymeeting]

I was on my waterfront for a short time this afternoon. While on the surface, the ice looks solid, and there is little to no indication of melting along the shoreline, the ice was making noises like I haven't heard since it first formed. Lots of gurgling and expansion noises. Something is changing...

[CoastalWx]

No way by April 15th. Enjoy the snow tomorrow night too. My guess is close to last year.

[Mink Islander]

My ip camera caught this group of geniuses passing in front of my place on Mink Island this morning. Yeah yeah, plenty of ice... Well not so much over by Mark Island in the channel they're heading towards. And Cattle Landing is quite sketchy at this point too. And no snow to lube the track or cool the engine. What could possibly go wrong?

Nice view of Mount Washington this morning, however....

[Pine Island Guy]

Doesn't look like we can get out to the island this weekend... but with predicted temps over 60 degrees and sunny all next week... maybe next weekend!

today's shot looking down the Pine/Bear channel -PIG

[Mr Cooke's Crew]

My guess is April 29.

[Winnisquamguy]

Ice out May 1 @ 10:40 am

[Merrymeeting]

In the FWIW dept. If anyone is interested in following ice-out on a lake other than Winni, you can follow the Merrymeeting one here, www.mmlake.org

At the very bottom of the page are links to two prior years for comparison.

[AmericanBoatClub]

Rain and warm temps coming are going to do some real damage as you all know. Mix in a little wind.

It is sorta creepy and beautiful out this afternoon

[Paugus bay girl]

I highly doubt it will happen in May, this week is going to be almost in the 60's, with a couple days close to 70. A lot can happen with just a week of warm temps. Also, the long range looks like the warm temps will stay.Lets hope!

[GodSmile]

My original guess, and I think with the forecast that's still a good one. Lake seems to be rising nicely as well over the last week or so
.

[Merrymeeting]

Took some pictures while walking the Cotton Valley Rail Trail from Wolfeboro this morning.

The 1st is Back Bay, along the trail toward the end. You can see open water at the top where the Smith River enters the Bay. The river is flowing strongly and the Bay is open on both ends.

The 2nd photo shows Crescent Lake, between Back Bay and Lake Wentworth, beginning to open up. The 3rd photo is also on Crescent, capturing four of everyone's favorite birds. I didn't take pictures, but when we drove by Wentworth, I didn't see any openings.

4th - Back Bay heading to bridge out to Wolfeboro Bay.
5th - other side of bridge
6th - More of the favorite birds off the Wolfeboro docks.
7th - looking down the bay toward Goodhue Hawkins Marina

[Chaos]

Shows the 2 Ft temp higher than the 10 Ft for the first time that I've seen. The weather is working its magic! The pond I use as a 2 week ice out measuring stick should ice out today. April 25 looks good still

[Just Sold]

Originally Posted by Chaos

Shows the 2 Ft temp higher than the 10 Ft for the first time that I've seen. The weather is working its magic! The pond I use as a 2 week ice out measuring stick should ice out today. April 25 looks good still

Which that pond be Long Pond?

[Chaos]

Just Sold,
Nameless man made pond on 111 in Atkinson.

[rrr]

Merrymeeting - is the rail trail snow free for walking?

[Slickcraft]

Belknap Point today, ice is getting darker. We'll see some real changes over the next few days.

[Merrymeeting]

Originally Posted by rrr

Merrymeeting - is the rail trail snow free for walking?

Not quite. It is mostly clear, but the places that get little to no sun (eg: the stretch from the WWII museum to Crescent Lake) still have a small layer of ice/snow. But I wouldn't be surprised if it's clear by tomorrow.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Lake temp 38/39 degrees. 70's tomorrow and rain Tuesday. All it takes is a week of favorable weather, and this is the week.

[pjard]

Very dark ice between Belknap Point and Welch...very dark! Looks like it could open up anytime.

[Lakegeezer]

Looks like a tilted line of melt on Winnipesaukee. From MODIS Government web site

[Pine Island Guy]

here's the image from this morning... good steady progress showing on the melt-o-meter!!

We will be heading out to the island this weekend for sure, maybe earlier

According to our totally unscientific historical models... ice-out is declared 4 days and 7 hours after the first time we can get to our dock on Pine Island... hahahaha

-PIG

[Accipiter290]

Time Lapse view on the Echo Shores cam for today shows the ice darkening up pretty significantly in a matter of just a few hours! Changes are going to start happening very quickly

[dippasan]

I declare ice out when I bring my first bag of "ice out" to the island and pour a cocktail. Can't wait!!!!

[Island Girl]

It looks like a lovely warm day at the lake. The lake temp is up to 38 degrees. This is the fun part... it is melting and every hour shows progress.

[Pine Island Guy]

Originally Posted by dippasan

I declare ice out when I bring my first bag of "ice out" to the island and pour a cocktail. Can't wait!!!!

That is an excellent definition!! I'm guessing there will be many island residents that will jump on that as their new mantra

Cocktails ready to go, just waiting "ice out" -PIG

[Ms Molly McKever]

Mr Web Master, Can I change my ice out guess I have may 8. I think we will be swiming by then. Ha Ha

[Just Sold]

Just saw a Boston Whaler running around in the open water at the Wolfeboro Corinthian Yacht Club. Also saw a golden jump in from the dock after the Whaler went off camera heading toward where the boat went. There was a boy and a woman on the dock with it before it jumped in. Sorry I did not have enough time to grab the photo.

[Chaos]

Time lapse. If you look at it you can actually see the ice melt and the surface change, and it's only several hours of coverage.

[Just Sold]

Just saw a Boston Whaler running around in the open water at the Wolfeboro Corinthian Yacht Club. Also saw a golden jump in from the dock after the Whaler went off camera heading toward where the boat went. There was a boy and a woman on the dock with it before it jumped in. Sorry I did not have enough time to grab the photo.

[Rob M]

Yesterday/Last night the ice disappeared on Lake Massabesic in Manchester, this usually occurs one week before the big Lake opens up. The lake was covered yesterday morning with very little open water. With these warm temps it would not surprise me to see the big Lake broken up and navigable by this weekend.

[radar4401]

While it has been warm down in Manchester area, we have had cool nights before this week. I doubt the big lake will be navigable this weekend. Some of the coves will take more time to open up.

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

Originally Posted by island girl

this is the official 2015 ice-out thread. If you reply to this thread all of the information about this year's ice-out will be easily accessible to our forum friends.

Today is the first day of spring (6:45 pm edt)

post your observations, concerns, pictures and whatever else comes to mind re: ice-out. Did i say pictures? We love your pictures.

The ice-out page is up at http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm. There you will find all of the images to watch the ice melt as well as links to special ice out features such as saunder's bay daily picture with information about previous year's ice out. (i will post link when it is available. This link if for 2014 and previous years)

ice-out has occurred in recent years when the lake temperature is from 39-41 degrees as reported by the winnipesaukee dataphoneat the lakeport dam. Today the temp is 33 degrees. Previous years include 2014-35 degrees, 2013-37 degrees and in 2012-41 degrees! We have a lot of warming up to do.

Many anticipate a late ice-out this year, so we need some rain dancers... And some warming up to prove them wrong.

Let's get on with our favorite activity ... Ice-out!

my condo is at rocky ledge (weirs beach) facing meridith..ice is getting very dark, and moving away from irwins pier and most of the shoreline. I'm guessing another week, and we'll see some major open water.

[Island Girl]

Please post if you have news on ice-out on Lily Pond.

[Chaos]

The Echo Shores web cam now has a large ice sheet that broke off and is moving around. Also looks like the Alton Bay runway may go at any time.

[nicelydunn]

Almost time to leave my winter paradise and return to my summer paradise.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Paugus Bay is ready to go. I would be very surprised if there was any ice left on the Bay by weeks end. The ice is black/green. Yesterday and today have steady winds from the south and west. This cam shot is looking south towards Lakeport.
Water temp 39 @1.5 feet. Water level rising fast, typical of previous years.

[Just Sold]

Melvin Village Marina web cam shows some ice breaking up and moving around.
http://www.melvinvillagemarina.com/webcam.html

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Silver Lake in Hollis is almost always one week ahead of Lake Winnipesaukee. Ice-out happened overnight or early this morning. One more week!!! Winnpiesaukee Data Phone is still reporting 38° at the dam. Black Cat Island is recording 41.8° at 2 feet and 40.2° At 10 feet.

[MDoug]

How's the ice at Cattle? Anyone out that way?

[Winni_Bay]

Hello paugusbayfirefighter
if possible when paugusbay is clear of ice post it here
what happened to our docs last year was terrible
hope we get through this year without damage
Im located at shipahoy condos 301 weirs blvd
if its ice free for saturday i will head up and get the boat lift in

Thank You
Dave

[Tired of Waiting]

Originally Posted by WINNIPESAUKEEBOB

my condo is at rocky ledge (weirs beach) facing meridith..ice is getting very dark, and moving away from irwins pier and most of the shoreline. I'm guessing another week, and we'll see some major open water.

Welcome to the forum.

Now go get a VERY BIG shaker of salt cause you'll be tossing some over your shoulder around here! Cause of folks like me.


Lots of good folks with lots of help and info.


ToW

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by Winni_Bay

Hello paugusbayfirefighter
if possible when paugusbay is clear of ice post it here
what happened to our docs last year was terrible
hope we get through this year without damage
Im located at shipahoy condos 301 weirs blvd
if its ice free for saturday i will head up and get the boat lift in

Thank You
Dave

Dave, I'll keep you updated. Hopefully the ice just dissapears. It appears to be rotting into candle ice... Crossing my fingers for both of us.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Please post if you have news on ice-out on Lily Pond.

IG. Lily Pond is BLACK. Much darker than yesterday with open water around the shore line and steel light towers. I wouldn't be surprised if Lily's ice is gone tomorrow. This picture was taken driving down the bypass, not a great shot but you get the picture!

[ishoot308]

Here's a couple pics from my deck overlooking the broads. That's Welch island in the first pic, the second is looking just east of Welch directly at the broads. No open water, just looks like it but it is very dark in places!!

[ishoot308]

Come on ice out!!!!!

[meredith weekender]

15mph winds tomorrow afternoon and night. This could definitely do some damage to the ice, hopefully not the docks.

[rgilfert]

FYI, from today's Union Leader .....

[Steveo]

Is out to the bandstand

[Chaos]

We've got an Ice breaker at Black Cat !

[PastorT]

Wow, I guess someone just can't wait till ice-out... hahahaha

[Pine Island Guy]

much more exciting than watching grass grow or paint dry

[AmericanBoatClub]

Melt!
Over looking Akwa Marina Yacht Club towards Meredith

[jazzman]

Not much melting on the Broads side of Big Barndoor Island...

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

This is Lily Pond about 1/2 an hour ago. Gusty wind out of the NE is ripping it apart. This morning it was all ice, now two thirds of Lily is water!

Winni_Bay. The ice along Weirs Blvd. is starting to break up. The winds are in your favor today although the ice is very close to your posts. The slab that's close is not huge and probably thin, the wind is helping. I'll take another look later.

[fatlazyless]

Looks like the ice sheet is getting mushy ..... changing from white to grey to black.....watched an eagle land on the ice sheet earlier this morning, about 10' from open shoreline water .... only to see it break through the slushy ice and fall into the water.....weighing maybe five pounds .....did not seem to bother the eagle one little bit....it took it all in stride....it happened again in another nearby spot and this eagle was totally nonchalant about it ..... the eagle was stepping along......slowly walking across the ice and seemed to be scanning the water depths......when all of a sudden it broke through the slushy ice......must have been stalking a fish or something to eat....at the time?


And no, it was not wearing a pfd!

[Slickcraft]

My wife was kind enough to stop by Lincoln Park today and snap some photos (while I am stuck at home with a cold). Not too long before the 1st trip out to Welch.

[Winni_Bay]

thanks for the update Paugusbayfirefighter
hope to get through this week without damage

on another note where is Lincoln Park how do you get there looks like great view from that park thanks for any info

[pjard]

Originally Posted by Winni_Bay

thanks for the update Paugusbayfirefighter
hope to get through this week without damage

on another note where is Lincoln Park how do you get there looks like great view from that park thanks for any info

It's in Gilford, Belknap Point Road.

[ishoot308]

Lily pond was 90% open when I went by just a little while ago. Should be clear by morning.

So is Lily pond a one or two week indicator of ice out?? Hopefully one!

Dan

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Lily pond was 90% open when I went by just a little while ago. Should be clear by morning.

So is Lily pond a one or two week indicator of ice out?? Hopefully one!

Dan

Week to 10 days.

[Mink Islander]

View from Mink looking north this A.M.