Official Ice-Out 2014 Thread

[Island Girl]

This is the official 2014 Ice-Out Thread. If you reply to this thread all of the information about this year's ice-out will be easily accessible to our forum friends.

Post your observations, concerns, pictures and whatever else comes to mind re: ice-out. Did I say pictures? We love your pictures.

The Ice-Out page is up at http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm. There you will find all of the images to watch the ice melt as well as links to special ice out features such as Saunder's Bay daily picture with information about previous year's ice out. (I will post link when it is available)

Ice-out has occured in recent years from 39-41 degrees as reported by the Winnipesaukee Dataphone at the Lakeport Dam.

Many anticipate a late ice-out this year, so we need some rain dancers... and some warming up to prove them wrong.


Island Girl

....... Make Lemonade

[MAXUM]

Let me be the first to post, there is still a lot of ice out there

However it's amazing how much the ice receded around the docks at Sheps just between Saturday and Sunday. It's definitely started.

[Chaselady]

27 inches reported on 19 mile bay today....

[Blue Thunder]

I was thinking you were waiting until April 1st.....just because you could....

[Frosty]

Should I wear a life vest? After all this rain and higher temps - has this made a dent in the ice at all?

[Bear Island South]

Originally Posted by Frosty

Should I wear a life vest? After all this rain and higher temps - has this made a dent in the ice at all?

The shoreline is probably the questionable part, if you can find a place to get on and off the ice you should be OK. Always a good idea to wear your ice picks when venturing on to the ice.

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by Bear Island South

The shoreline is probably the questionable part, if you can find a place to get on and off the ice you should be OK. Always a good idea to wear your ice picks when venturing on to the ice.

thanks BIS - a new adventure every day - that's what keeps us young

[RLW]

Frosty, I just noticed that you are fairly new to posting on the forum and glad you have joined us. Have fun and enjoy the Winni Forum while making many new friends.

Where there is a will there is a way to do it. Just do it safely and enjoy yourself doing it. I heard from ice fishermen that the ice is still very thick close to 18".

Have fun

[Grant]

Regardless of the date, with two-plus feet of ice offshore on April 1, there's gonna be some sizeable 'bergs moving around and causing all sorts of dock damage.

[Rich]

I'm just hoping we see Ice Out before June!

[Merrymeeting]

I hope I'm wrong, but we could see a lot of damage over the next few days.

Going outside, the sound of rushing streams is everywhere. The dog can't figure out what's going on. She just stands there and keeps looking around trying to figure out what it is and where it's coming from.

Unfortunately, this means the lake levels will probably start rising quickly, while everything is still locked in 24+ inches of ice.

Let's hope the edges and rocks open up as quickly.

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

I hope I'm wrong, but we could see a lot of damage over the next few days.

Going outside, the sound of rushing streams is everywhere. The dog can't figure out what's going on. She just stands there and keeps looking around trying to figure out what it is and where it's coming from.

Unfortunately, this means the lake levels will probably start rising quickly, while everything is still locked in 24+ inches of ice.

Let's hope the edges and rocks open up as quickly.

The lake has only risen by about an inch and a half in that 24 hr period. Perhaps by not getting as much rain as had been predicted, damage caused by the lake rising while still ice covered will be minimal.

Back to ice out itself.

[ishoot308]

April 1st and still solid as a rock on Welch island. No signs of melting anywhere around my dock or the edges even after all this rain...

[meredith weekender]

WOW, What a difference in less than a week.

[Island Girl]

I have only been watching ice for 14 years.... young compared to some of you. It has been my observation that the color of the ice in the spring tells a lot about the condition of the ice. A foot of gray punky ice can go very fast with a little rain, some warm temps and wind. The crystals bang against each other and dissipate.

The lake can appear to be socked in, but a very dark gray and then be completely liquid in two days. This happened about 6-7 years ago when the great predictor said it would be two more weeks and it was two more days.

While I agree that we will be later than average this year.... I am watching the color as an indication over thickness. Now.. if I saw two feet of solid black ice... I would be thinking June!

[Slickcraft]

Yes IG color does give us a good hint as to what is going on. I have posted this in prior years, from Minnesota but lake ice is lake ice. It is normal for the last stage go quickly with a strong wind, leaving those clinking "ice candles". We are quite a ways from that but lots of bright sunny days can make quick work.

http://www.minnesotawaters.org/group...lake-ice-melts

How Lake Ice Melts

In the late fall, the lake loses heat to the atmosphere, and then on a day or night when the wind is not blowing, ice forms. The ice gets thicker as long as the lake can continue to lose heat.
In most Januaries and Februaries, snow both reflects sunlight and insulates the lake. With a thick snow layer, the lake neither gains nor loses heat. The bottom sediment is actually heating the lake water slightly over the winter, from stored summer heat.
Around March, as the air warms and the sun gets more intense, the snow melts, allowing light to penetrate the ice. Because the ice acts like the glass in a greenhouse, the water beneath it begins to warm, and the ice begins to melt FROM THE BOTTOM.
When the ice thickness erodes to between 4 and 12 inches, it transforms into long vertical crystals called "candles." These conduct light even better, so the ice starts to look black, because it is not reflecting much sunlight.
Warming continues because the light energy is being transferred to the water below the ice. Meltwater fills in between the crystals, which begin breaking apart. The surface appears grayish as the ice reflects a bit more light than before.
The wind comes up, and breaks the surface apart. The candles will often be blown to one side of the lake, making a tinkling sound as they knock against one another, and piling up on the shore. In hours, a sparkling blue lake, once again

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Panorama looking south across Paugus Bay. Christmas and Pixie Islands on the left and the start of the Weir's canal on the right.

More progress...

[Island Girl]

I just love that clinking sound... for the lovely sound it makes and for the promise it brings.

Originally Posted by Slickcraft

Yes IG color does give us a good hint as to what is going on. I have posted this in prior years, from Minnesota but lake ice is lake ice. It is normal for the last stage go quickly with a strong wind, leaving those clinking "ice candles". We are quite a ways from that but lots of bright sunny days can make quick work.

http://www.minnesotawaters.org/group...lake-ice-melts

[Blue Thunder]

Barry Uicker just tweeted out the Silver Sands daily picture...

http://nhboat.com/Nhboat/Features/ice/ice-out2014.htm

[Grant]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

Barry Uicker just tweeted out the Silver Sands daily picture...

http://nhboat.com/Nhboat/Features/ice/ice-out2014.htm

Hahaha -- I was checking almost daily, and just saw it was up and was going to post it here. One of my favorite annual sites...

[ApS]

Originally Posted by Slickcraft

Yes IG color does give us a good hint as to what is going on. I have posted this in prior years, from Minnesota but lake ice is lake ice. It is normal for the last stage go quickly with a strong wind, leaving those clinking "ice candles". We are quite a ways from that but lots of bright sunny days can make quick work.

http://www.minnesotawaters.org/group...lake-ice-melts

A close-up of one "ice candle" resting on a 2x4—more "ice candles" in the background:

[Webbsatwinni]

So exciting to see the ice give up. A great community of webcams and local pictures make it possible to enjoy it from CT while waiting to put the boat in. Here is my contribution today.

[Merrymeeting]

The next few days will be interesting. Very high temps tomorrow with lots of wind. I noticed the ice pack in front of my house moved significantly for the first time this morning. Unfortunately, this could also mean lots of damage as these large chunks of ice move around in the wind.

But mid-week we're going to have temps below freezing for a few nights. That will slow things down again.

[CoastalWx]

I know some don't want to hear it, but the Lakes region has the chance of a bit of snow and sleet tonight.

[meredith weekender]

According to the Lakeport Dam data phone the water temp has risen to 37degrees. Hoping that this will start to melt the lake from the bottom up.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by meredith weekender

According to the Lakeport Dam data phone the water temp has risen to 37degrees. Hoping that this will start to melt the lake from the bottom up.

Last year today we were at 38-39 degrees, so not too far off...lots more to melt this time.

[sbtgregg]

Just joining the thread

[party.of.five]

This is the current view from my webcam. I'm not sure if those dark spots are standing water on top of the ice or what, but they are directly next to or over the rocks we have out there.

But that's definitely floating ice, so there's that, and today is the first day I've seen the beach since October. It's slow, but it's happening.

(this is channel between moultonborough bay and green's basin if you don't remember my post from a few weeks ago)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[party.of.five]

Might help if I attach the picture. Oops.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Webbsatwinni]

Looks to be pulling away from the shore. Still a while to go, but any hope, is still hope!

[Misha888]

The wind is working its magic. The temps dipping down in the 20's is working against them, though.

[meredith weekender]

Stevens Pond in Manchester was officially iced out yesterday and that is typically a two week indicator for Winni. Here's to hoping for some warm sunshine and strong winds.

[ishoot308]

I was talking to friend who was out on the lake snowmobiling yesterday afternoon and while the edges are giving way, he said he cut a couple holes in Sanders bay and there is still 18"- 20" of ice...

Near 80 degrees on Monday followed up by a day of rain should do a number on it...

Dan

[Webbsatwinni]

A lot darker today, or wishful thinking?

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Webbsatwinni

A lot darker today, or wishful thinking?

Yup...because it's cloudy.

[Happy Gourmand]

Hasn't one of the indicators for ice out for Winni been Lily Pond in Gilford?

[SIKSUKR]

Stevens pond is almost always about the same day as the pond across the street from my house which was almost out today.I usually add about 2 weeks for Winni.I'll add a little for the excess ice and say.......April 29.

[mhtranger]

Originally Posted by The Phantom Gourmand

Hasn't one of the indicators for ice out for Winni been Lily Pond in Gilford?

Yes it is usually two weeks after Lily goes out. My guess is it will be longer this year.

[itchin for fishin]

My pool has been a good two week indicator. Since 1999, I have always had the cover off by this date. Today, I went to check, it is at least 10 days out, maybe longer. It will be a May Ice-Out this year.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

I have been keeping track of Silver Lake in Hollis for the last ten years now in relation to the the big lake's ice-out. Silver Lake's ice was out this morning. If the last ten years hold true, Winnipesaukee will be next Friday. I hope! Snake Eyes is looking very promising!

[ishoot308]

I just went by Lilly pond and it's still locked up solid...

Dan

[Merrymeeting]

It's going to be a different ice-out from what we've been used to in the last few years. Most of the melting has been from the bottom up, and rather than receding from the edges, it seems to be going all at once, all over.

I sense that we will have ice pack one day, then it will soften/get porous, and disappear all at once when we least expect it.

I'm with RG...sometime in the next 7-8 days.

[meredith weekender]

Let's just settle on another 10 days and ice out will be my Birthday present this year. Lol.

[Lakegeezer]

The "three week till iceout" indicator that I've used for over 20 years started showing last Monday, which would put iceout on April 28'th. The ice changed a lot this past week, and is starting to look gray. However, where it pulled away from the shore, there is a foot or more of clear ice showing. The lake level rose over a foot in the past week, and moving the ice around will accelerate melting. I wouldn't be surprised if it holds out till May 1'st, but don't think it will be setting records. If a new iceout contest opened today, I'd go with Monday, April 28'th.

[Slickcraft]

The ice between Ellacoya and South Welch appears to be on the Last In First Out track.

Looking out from Belknap Point, the ice in general is getting darker in color, evidence that the ice candles are forming. I expect a lot of color change in the next few warm days.

[Merrymeeting]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

It's going to be a different ice-out from what we've been used to in the last few years. Most of the melting has been from the bottom up, and rather than receding from the edges, it seems to be going all at once, all over.

I sense that we will have ice pack one day, then it will soften/get porous, and disappear all at once when we least expect it.

I'm with RG...sometime in the next 7-8 days.

Still liking my "second" guess. My official one is long gone (April 8th)

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

I just went by Lilly pond and it's still locked up solid...

Dan

Dan, I noticed a big change this morning on Lilly. The shorelines and areas around the light stations have opened. The ice is very dark. This morning's heavy rain and tomorrow's warmth should accelerate the melting.

The lake will be up close to the bottom of my docks by Tuesday. The lake rise has been very fast. The ice has receded quite a bit along the bay.

Bass boat going in Monday...it won't be long before Paugus ice out is declared.

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by meredith weekender

Stevens Pond in Manchester was officially iced out yesterday and that is typically a two week indicator for Winni. Here's to hoping for some warm sunshine and strong winds.

I use Stevens Pond as my indicator as well. I have seen it be as much as 3 weeks apart from Winni.

[salty dog]

Originally Posted by Misha888

The wind is working its magic. The temps dipping down in the 20's is working against them, though.

Very nice panorama shot.

[codeman671]

Willand Pond in Dover is typically a 2 week indicator. It will be clear most likely tomorrow. I don't see this holding true this year with 2 feet still on the lake.

[Blue Thunder]

Today's High-Res Satellite photo....the process is underway for sure.

[party.of.five]

Took a ride up to the lake today for the first time since October...the annual pilgrimage to rustle out any overwintering critters (none this year) and to get the process of opening the house started. My husband is a crazy, but he brought some ice back for inspection. Definite candling happening at the edges. Not sure how thick it is further out but we weren't going out there for a closer look lol.







Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Merrymeeting]

I just drove by Sunrise Lake in Middleton, between Farmington and Wolfeboro. Yesterday it was completely ice covered. Today there are large patches of open water and the ice seems to be disappearing fast. In fact there was more open water than ice. Quite a change from yesterday!

[AC2717]

Originally Posted by party.of.five

That is a wicked Cool Ice Breaker Boat you have there!!

[riverat]

Originally Posted by party.of.five

Took a ride up to the lake today for the first time since October...the annual pilgrimage to rustle out any overwintering critters (none this year)

I check monthly on several seasonal homes where I live for critters during the winter months, and some winters it has been a battle but this winter hardly anything disturb. Do you think it has anything to do with the harsh winter and the shortage of pinecones and acorns last fall.

[Webbsatwinni]

Darker and darker it grows!

[Fargo]

I just drove by Lilly Pond and the ice is out there. I'm thinking Winni will be out April 22 at noon.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Fargo

I just drove by Lilly Pond and the ice is out there. I'm thinking Winni will be out April 22 at noon.

I thought Lily Pond was a two week indicator??...

[Island Girl]

Nearly 6 inches in the last 6 days.

[Islander2]

Major change in ice on Echo Shores webcam today... really disappearing quickly!

[upthesaukee]

Ames Farm out towards Diamond, and a long way out.

Some open water along 11D below the scenic view.

Alton Bay out to Sandy Point.

Lake ice is changing fast, getting very black.

West Alton Marina, by the docks, is almost free of ice now. Woo Hoo...my May 1 in the water is looking great.

Lake level is holding just about a half inch below full lake.

[Island Girl]

It has been a fun day watching the cams at http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm

Places that were socked in this morning are nearly open. These few warm days have done a good job! I know there is still ice out there.. But it will be soon. It is time for making the camp opening lists.

I think we will have to get that boat washed and waxed soon.

Ah .. May this winter end.

[Merrymeeting]

Drove by Sunrise Lake again today. No sign of ice anywhere.

Merrymeeting is pretty much like Winni. Major change and movements of the ice today. Much darker, many areas open. It seems to be going fast.

[RetreatHouse]

Does anyone have pictures of ice conditions on Meredith bay Eastern shore along
area where Pleasant St. meets Wagon Wheel trail.

[Just Sold]

You know the lake is playing with us by only opening a portion and keeping the rest iced in.

[pcmc]

Better up dates here than the 5 o'clock news with a breaking story.
The humor with those anticipating the open water has been great. Now the boaters getting their quick fix is hilarious, doing what they have to, in order to float around on the lake where ever they can.

[sunsationdave]

Well the winds took out my dock today and many more along weirs blvd looking for a dock to rent docks will be repaired months from now if that. Thanks pbff For you offer to help. Most likely rent a dock for now I was watching the ice today wow it does some serious damage

[Sal]

Ice is receding from the shoreline and two (very large) loons appeared today,
swimming and diving. I hope they found some fat fish.

[Dad sold the C * C]

From the road Winnisquam looked ice free from the bridge south ( saw several boats) Got to the cabin about 8:30 AM yesterday; no ice up against the west shore. Looked like one large sheet of ice from Laconia north past Pot IS.

Once the wind picked up it really started moving south and melting. By 1 pm lots of open water south of Pot island in the wide section of the lake. It's really impressive watching these large sheets of ice move past each other .

[tis]

We saw a loon, a woodduck pair and some merganzers yesterday in the open water. It is coming!! I feel so sorry for those who are losing their docks. The heavy ice blowing around is going to make it hard on the docks this year I am afraid. Funny as we long timers said before, how mother nature makes up for things-suddenly warmer so we are not that far off from a normal ice out. It is so amazing. I just love watching the ice go out!!!
Oh, and we also saw the eagle.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by sunsationdave

Well the winds took out my dock today and many more along weirs blvd looking for a dock to rent docks will be repaired months from now if that. Thanks pbff For you offer to help. Most likely rent a dock for now I was watching the ice today wow it does some serious damage

Sorry to hear you confirm what I thought I saw yesterday.
Not sure about this season but last year they were renting out seasonal slips at Christmas Island Motel. I could try and find out some details if you want.

From the north end of Paugus it looks clear but that's not really the case. These pictures are from the Margate property and you can see lots of ice creeping on shore. Looks like the same places hurt last year are getting it again. Hopefully there's no wind in that cove today.
AC2717...so far you guys are fine, but you're living on the edge.

First 2 pictures are looking just to the east of the Margate going up Weirs Blvd. The third is The Margate docks. They already have damage and are in serious danger since the ice snapped a prop on one of the aerators overnight.
The last picture is looking south at the ice area. Yes, that beautiful dark spot is the returning loon. One end is heaven, the other not so nice.

[safe passage]

In the past two days the ice in and around Wolfeboro Bay has been getting darker and darker. As a result of shifting wind the ice in the Bay has been breaking up around the edges from Dockside all the way around to Sewall Point. It can't be long before the entire Bay is "punky" followed by open water. Temperatures are down in the 30's right now so this may retard the ice melt and some forecasts say it may snow. Not good news for those who want to see the ice leave the Bay sooner rather than later. We may not see 50 degrees during the daylight again until Saturday. Still, with the wind, longer days, higher sun, and some rain it is hard to believe that the official "Ice Out" can be more than 10 days to two weeks away. That would keep it comfortably in April, something few of the experts felt possible just a scant few days ago.

[Island Girl]

The image is poor but you can see ice in one image and waves in the next. Perhaps webbsatwinni can post a better view.

[Island Girl]

The rest of the lake still has lots of ice. But it is happening.

[ishoot308]

My dock / breakwater is taking a beating. If this wind doesn't let up, it won't be good as the ice being blown in gets thicker and thicker!

Hoping for the best...

Dan

[Island Girl]

Each cam has a different story. Thanks to all the webcam owners. This has been a tough time for the cams, so many are down. Island cams are so vulnerable because we cannot get to them to fix. This one shows the south end of the lake beginning to open up.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Do my eyes deceive me?!

Echo Shores

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Snake Eyes

[Webbsatwinni]

IG? Where did the ice go????

[salty dog]

Originally Posted by Webbsatwinni

IG? Where did the ice go????

That's quite a change in less than 24 hours!

[safe passage]

Originally Posted by Rattlesnake Gal

Do my eyes deceive me?!

Echo Shores

Nope, eyes are reliable. The view from Broadside Rd at end of Wolfeboro Neck reveals the ice is free from The Broads as far as the eyes can see. Would send pics but can't figure out how to do it.

[SteveA]

The Broads are clear from LSP to the other side of the lake and all the way to Diamond and Rattlesnake. Still ice right off Lincoln Park and in Smith Cove

[RLW]

safe passage, I just noticed that you are fairly new to posting on the forum and glad you have joined us. Have fun and enjoy the Winni Forum while making many new friends.

Thanks for your input and hope to see you here quite often now that you have joined the forum crowd.

[robmac]

what a difference a day makes. it is new England though but who cares almost launch time

[Pine Island Guy]

it never ceases to amaze me about how quickly the ice goes out when it occurs... a week ago people were still predicting a record breaking mid-May ice-out, and i was hoping to be able to break through the ice to the island this weekend...

It should be an easy ride to the island, and unless all the ice piles up in a bay and the Mount can't get to one of its' ports... it looks like ice-out will be declared in the next few days or at least within a week!

Amazing... now get those boats in the water and bring on summer!!

-PIG

[dag623]

Originally Posted by Pine Island Guy

it never ceases to amaze me about how quickly the ice goes out when it occurs... a week ago people were still predicting a record breaking mid-May ice-out

-PIG

Guilty as charged
I too have been amazed at how quickly things are moving! I drive past Mt. Major through Alton on my to work every day, and "wow" is all I can say...

[ishoot308]

That wind has done and is doing some amazing work to break up that ice!! I never would have guessed a couple days ago that I would see open water in front of Welch like I do in this pic today!!

WOO HOO!!!!

Dan

[CateP]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

That wind has done and is doing some amazing work to break up that ice!! I never would have guessed a couple days ago that I would see open water in front of Welch like I do in this pic today!!

WOO HOO!!!!

Dan

Wow Dan. Good thing you have that breakwater. Your dock would be chop sticks if it weren't there.

[webmaster]

Emerson Aviation is reporting Ice-Out on Lily Pond. Ice-Out on the big lake should be 7-10 days away.

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

That wind has done and is doing some amazing work to break up that ice!! I never would have guessed a couple days ago that I would see open water in front of Welch like I do in this pic today!!

WOO HOO!!!!

Dan

Wow.... some of those chunks of ice are 8 inches thick.

[Martin6683]

Just spoke to Ernie Sr. over at Gillan Marine, he seems to think Ice Out will be "much sooner than 7-10 days"....
im excited!

[Misha888]

Windy and cold this morning.

[Misha888]

From Christmas Island

[Orion]

Am I believing my eyes on the Snake Eyes web cam? Broads look wide open!!

[Accipiter290]

this is how i feel as i see all these updates daily

[AC2717]

I'm a scared for our docks in Paugus
but good news is the water is being turned on 04/23/14

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by AC2717

I'm a scared for our docks in Paugus
but good news is the water is being turned on 04/23/14

As of 6:15 this morning your docks were all clear with ice about 25 yards off their ends. On the north end of the bay I watched the ice drift in today so you should be even better than this morning.
This will be an interesting next few days with the drifting ice.

[jazzman]

I declare "ice out" on the broads side of Big Barndoor Island...

[Massasauga]

Attached are a few photos from today 4/17/14 (views from Lock's Hill and my first trip out to Rattlesnake)... Still lots of ice on the lake but the Broads are mostly open and Rattlesnake Island is substanially accessible (note, you may need to push through some ice). Minge Cove is open. I suspect West Alton is good too. Watch out for huge-moving ice-flows which could lock you in if you are not paying attention.

[Massasauga]

Actually this is my neighbor's dock... as my dock was locked in with ice...