It's gonna be a long winter...

[8gv]

Originally Posted by MeredithMan

Who's Brandon?

Google "Let's go Brandon"

[MeredithMan]

Originally Posted by 8gv

Google "Let's go Brandon"

I guess I'm not hip with the pop culture Biden metaphors....

[John Mercier]

''Because U.S. LNG exports have grown faster than domestic natural gas production, inventories are lower than average. As of the end of September, EIA estimates that total U.S. natural gas inventories are 5.5% below the five-year (2016–2020) average. EIA forecasts that U.S. inventories of natural gas will begin the winter heating season on November 1 at 3,572 Bcf, or 4.8% below the five-year average. Lower U.S. inventories could contribute to more natural gas price volatility, particularly if any area in the United States experiences a severe cold snap, which makes the price outlook for this winter very uncertain.''

US companies are seeing higher demand for LNG overseas, so their customer base is broader and they can make more exporting.

[SAB1]

$3.79 a gallon on my fill up yesterday.

[BroadHopper]

Don't forget the NIMBYs play into this. No gas lines in their backyards. Lots of gas at the wellheads but no distribution channels. Also, grassroots organizations are against using natural gas. I'd rather stop burning coal and oil and switch to cleaner natural gas for the time being until renewables catch up!

There were plans in the works for decades to switch the Bow plant that burns coal to LNG, but the NIMBYs stop the pipelines from Portsmouth.

[8gv]

So...

Let's say one has a prepaid contract for propane at $1.68 per gallon with enough to cover the heating season.

Did the contracted company lock in a price that allows a profit despite the rising prices that we now see?

If so, did the next company up the line have a contracted price from the well head?

At what point does the communication come out saying "We can no longer honor the contracted price."

Does all of the price escalation fall to the customers that don't have contracts?

Decades ago I recall some oil delivery companies in CT going broke as a result of supplier price increases and fixed price contracts with their customers.

Many of those customers had prepaid contracts and their money evaporated.

After they lost their money, the customers had to go find oil for a much higher price.

Hang on; the seas are about to get rough!

[TiltonBB]

It has already happened in New Hampshire.

In November 2014, Fred Fuller Oil, the largest supplier of home heating oil in New Hampshire, filed for bankruptcy.

In January of 2014 Fuller was inundated with calls from automatic delivery customers who were running low or and running out of oil. At that time Fuller blamed a “perfect storm” of bad circumstances – unseasonably cold weather following a severe storm and a phone system malfunction.

In January, 2015, the state Attorney General’s office set up an emergency hotline due to the volume of customers worried about the status of their pre-paid accounts and lack of oil.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by 8gv

So...

Let's say one has a prepaid contract for propane at $1.68 per gallon with enough to cover the heating season.

Did the contracted company lock in a price that allows a profit despite the rising prices that we now see?

If so, did the next company up the line have a contracted price from the well head?

At what point does the communication come out saying "We can no longer honor the contracted price."

Does all of the price escalation fall to the customers that don't have contracts?

Decades ago I recall some oil delivery companies in CT going broke as a result of supplier price increases and fixed price contracts with their customers.

Many of those customers had prepaid contracts and their money evaporated.

After they lost their money, the customers had to go find oil for a much higher price.

Hang on; the seas are about to get rough!

They were unregulated at the time. They were allowed to take the pre-buy money and not buy futures contracts to lock in the price. This allowed them to gamble on the price going lower and then keeping the extra. NH RSA 339:79 was adopted to make the practice illegal.

[baygo]

About six hours ago, Jack Dorsey authored a Twitter post That stated America is about to enter into a period of hyper inflation. Can anybody describe what hyper inflation is to me? Thanks.

[Irish mist]

Originally Posted by baygo

About six hours ago, Jack Dorsey authored a Twitter post That stated America is about to enter into a period of hyper inflation. Can anybody describe what hyper inflation is to me? Thanks.

Just remember back to the Carter years & that's what we will be experiencing.

[baygo]

Originally Posted by Irish mist

Just remember back to the Carter years & that's what we will be experiencing.

No… Actually Carter was in office during inflation. Hyper inflation took place in Weimer Germany, and Venezuela.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by BroadHopper

Don't forget the NIMBYs play into this. No gas lines in their backyards. Lots of gas at the wellheads but no distribution channels. Also, grassroots organizations are against using natural gas. I'd rather stop burning coal and oil and switch to cleaner natural gas for the time being until renewables catch up!

There were plans in the works for decades to switch the Bow plant that burns coal to LNG, but the NIMBYs stop the pipelines from Portsmouth.

Increasing the demand would not lower the price. The price was lower in the past because the means to compress the gas to liquid (LNG) and thus transport it to Europe did not exist in the same capacity.

That capacity now exists, so even though natural gas production is up, it hasn't increased enough to cover the extra level of export.