2008's first temperatures

CanisLupusArctos · 01-03-2008, 12:47 PM

It's after noontime and the temperature on Black Cat hasn't gotten above 4 degrees all day (since midnight.) This morning's low was -1, our first time below zero this season. So far it's a colder day than we had all last winter - our coldest daily max was 8 degrees, on a couple of occasions. However, it depends how the stats are broken down. On one occasion, the high of 8 was recorded at midnight and the temperature during daylight failed to reach zero.

Patches of open water remain around Black Cat Shoals, an indication that the ice should not be trusted on the open lake. Also as this season begins, beware that much of this season's ice resulted from the snowfall rather than solid ('black') ice like we had last year.

Rumors of warm air moving in are true... after today temps will rebound to more normal levels and then the models are showing incredibly warm air moving in here for the weekend and next week. I'd be inclined to tame down any forecasts for record highs though. Models don't do very well with temp forecasts when snowpack is involved. I have a hunch this warm air mass will chill off a bit, as it passes over the 18-24" snowpack we have over most of New England.. and locally... our lake ice. The same sort of effect happens when cold air moves over land that has no snow - it tends to warm up despite model predictions to the contrary.

When warm air does battle with a winter landscape we can expect fog, and any rain showers will run the risk of freezing to the roads because the snowpack may keep temps below freezing within 2 feet of the ground-- especially at night and in valleys. Forecasters would have a hard time detecting this, because most weather stations take the temperature at 4 or 5 feet off the ground.

Edit... I just realized I could've posted this in R2B's thread, 'Early Jan. 2008' D'OH!

01-03-2008, 12:47 PM	#1
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	2008's first temperatures It's after noontime and the temperature on Black Cat hasn't gotten above 4 degrees all day (since midnight.) This morning's low was -1, our first time below zero this season. So far it's a colder day than we had all last winter - our coldest daily max was 8 degrees, on a couple of occasions. However, it depends how the stats are broken down. On one occasion, the high of 8 was recorded at midnight and the temperature during daylight failed to reach zero. Patches of open water remain around Black Cat Shoals, an indication that the ice should not be trusted on the open lake. Also as this season begins, beware that much of this season's ice resulted from the snowfall rather than solid ('black') ice like we had last year. Rumors of warm air moving in are true... after today temps will rebound to more normal levels and then the models are showing incredibly warm air moving in here for the weekend and next week. I'd be inclined to tame down any forecasts for record highs though. Models don't do very well with temp forecasts when snowpack is involved. I have a hunch this warm air mass will chill off a bit, as it passes over the 18-24" snowpack we have over most of New England.. and locally... our lake ice. The same sort of effect happens when cold air moves over land that has no snow - it tends to warm up despite model predictions to the contrary. When warm air does battle with a winter landscape we can expect fog, and any rain showers will run the risk of freezing to the roads because the snowpack may keep temps below freezing within 2 feet of the ground-- especially at night and in valleys. Forecasters would have a hard time detecting this, because most weather stations take the temperature at 4 or 5 feet off the ground. Edit... I just realized I could've posted this in R2B's thread, 'Early Jan. 2008' D'OH!