When does it end? How can it?

[VitaBene]

Originally Posted by lakewinnie

I appreciate all of the details on the medical issues that are communicated in the President's daily press briefings, but for the life of me, I cannot understand why there has been little, if any, discussion on the grocery supply issues? There has been little focus on this by the President and by the press. For God's sake, stop asking questions about the impeachment and ask Trump when we are going to get our toilet paper.

Is it because we are facing a food supply shortage and they don't want to freak us out?

We are not facing a shortage but virtually every person in this country is buying more, in many cases much more, of many items than they normally do.

The supply chain needs to catch back up, but also remember that the chain is weaker due to illness and businesses being shut down.

[TheProfessor]

Originally Posted by VitaBene

We are not facing a shortage but virtually every person in this country is buying more, in many cases much more, of many items than they normally do.

The supply chain needs to catch back up, but also remember that the chain is weaker due to illness and businesses being shut down.

Yes. Many businesses are shut down. Only "essential" businesses are open.

Here in New Hampshire Governor Sununu has proclaimed 27 Emergency Orders. And they keep coming. Other states may be doing the same which does impact the supply chain. Sometimes with unintended consequences.

[TiltonBB]

Four benchmarks for a return to normalcy

Researchers recently outlined some markers:

1. Hospitals must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care. That means having adequate beds, ventilators and staff.

2. The authorities must be able to test everyone who has symptoms, and to get reliable results quickly. That would be well more than 750,000 tests a week in the U.S.

3. Health agencies must be able to monitor confirmed cases, trace contacts of the infected, and have at-risk people go into isolation or quarantine.

4. There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days, because it can take that long for symptoms to appear.

[Orion]

[/B]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Four benchmarks for a return to normalcy

Researchers recently outlined some markers:

1. Hospitals must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care. That means having adequate beds, ventilators and staff.

2. The authorities must be able to test everyone who has symptoms, and to get reliable results quickly. That would be well more than 750,000 tests a week in the U.S.

3. Health agencies must be able to monitor confirmed cases, trace contacts of the infected, and have at-risk people go into isolation or quarantine.

4. There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days, because it can take that long for symptoms to appear.

The above is true from purely a medical perspective, but I would add one more.... a prophylactic drug of some sort. Whether this is Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine or something else will remain to be seen. Given that, we can't wait for the "normal" complete drug assessment to be completed since there are people dying daily. And as I would be assessing for myself in that case, "what do I have to lose" in taking a long-available drug. At least one Democrat Congresswomen is eternally grateful for the President shedding light on these drugs.

Outside of the medical issues here, this is truly a classic risk assessment evaluation that must be performed to determine when we start to return to normal. While Faucci and Birx are focused on minimizing deaths from the virus, there are other very real risks in keeping the government shut down, many that will also increase deaths. In a risk assessment model, you weigh probabilities vs. consequence. If something has a low probability of occurring, we can live with a bit more sever consequence. If it is a high probability of occurring, we need to reduce the consequence. Right now this virus has given us high probability and high consequence. The quarantines have aimed at reducing the probability but we need to focus on reducing the consequences to be able to ease up on the quarantine. A vaccine would do that but that is at least a year out. If we had a prophylactic drug available to be taken, or a quick cure, or a prior-exposure test, or all three were available, the risk would drop down to minimal and we could get back to work.

The bottom line is that the President has a very tough set of decisions to make and it can not be totally the call of the doctors. This is an unprecedented complex medical and economic situation and there is very little history to use to climb out of it. But rest assured, whatever decision he makes will be questioned, right or wrong.

[ApS]

Maybe not too far off...

A COVID-19 vaccine that "piggy-backs" on the vaccine for rabies.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/jefferso...-philadelphia/

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by Orion

[/B]

The above is true from purely a medical perspective, but I would add one more.... a prophylactic drug of some sort. Whether this is Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine or something else will remain to be seen. Given that, we can't wait for the "normal" complete drug assessment to be completed since there are people dying daily. And as I would be assessing for myself in that case, "what do I have to lose" in taking a long-available drug. At least one Democrat Congresswomen is eternally grateful for the President shedding light on these drugs.

Outside of the medical issues here, this is truly a classic risk assessment evaluation that must be performed to determine when we start to return to normal. While Faucci and Birx are focused on minimizing deaths from the virus, there are other very real risks in keeping the government shut down, many that will also increase deaths. In a risk assessment model, you weigh probabilities vs. consequence. If something has a low probability of occurring, we can live with a bit more sever consequence. If it is a high probability of occurring, we need to reduce the consequence. Right now this virus has given us high probability and high consequence. The quarantines have aimed at reducing the probability but we need to focus on reducing the consequences to be able to ease up on the quarantine. A vaccine would do that but that is at least a year out. If we had a prophylactic drug available to be taken, or a quick cure, or a prior-exposure test, or all three were available, the risk would drop down to minimal and we could get back to work.

The bottom line is that the President has a very tough set of decisions to make and it can not be totally the call of the doctors. This is an unprecedented complex medical and economic situation and there is very little history to use to climb out of it. But rest assured, whatever decision he makes will be questioned, right or wrong.

These 5 things make sense. One thing to keep in mind on the hydroxychloroquine. I have not seen even anecdotal data on efficacy (such as, out of 100 people given the drug...). But if this is given to a few thousand people likely to be exposed, the data will pile up very fast to suggest it is effective or just a wish.

[CanisLupusArctos]

"When Will This End?"

Or... "HOW will this end?"

Go to YouTube to look at videos from all different media outlets worldwide. Read the comment threads (skim or speed-read) to gauge the general attitude of the viewers.

Apply knowledge of world history, particularly past crises.

The US isn't the only country full of upset citizens. The Brits are just as divided. Police and soldiers enforcing quarantine in many other countries are doing a better job angering the masses and abusing power than they are at accomplishing the matter at hand. It was to be expected. This situation is every control freak's wildest dreams.

That sort of thing, and other problems like the spike in domestic abuse reported by UK and French news, are sending the world's masses into a mental health tailspin.

A very large number of people have suddenly become economically hopeless. Psychologists believe that has caused a bunch of new domestic abuse in addition to toxic relationships that existed before.

History says that when the world's masses suddenly lose all the things they enjoyed, become angry, opinionated and divided, economically hopeless and abusive, crowds become desperate enough to make instant celebrities out of really dark characters like Hitler, and the whole chaotic world mess turns to warfare.

German news yesterday reported their country blamed the US for "piracy" of a shipment of masks. The headline was, "International Solidarity Breaks Down."

Meanwhile the comment thread on a Sky News Australia video was lengthy and almost entirely negative opinions on the WHO, China, and US ties to both.

Note: I do NOT offer any of this post as an opinion. I do NOT make this post to express a stance. It is important to point out "what is," whether it's dark or light (and unfortunately it looks dark) and then we apply world history to get an idea of where similar situations have led in the past.

The global stress from COVID-19 could very easily lead to war. At the very least it appears headed toward revolution in a handful of places. In the US, there is a high likelihood of court cases regarding Constitutional Rights vs. Disease Prevention. No one's stance on the issue can prevent those cases from happening if there are lawyers out there who want to pursue it. Then it gets news coverage, people polarize, and who knows?

We all know what bitterly divisive issues have caused lately. Two groups, each holding picket signs and shouting, start throwing things at each other and then the riot police move in.... then copycat behavior breaks out in other places. As with a tornado watch, "the ingredients are all there for a violent situation."

Run the tabletop exercise:

"If this domino falls, what is the usual outcome based on history and human nature?" [fill in the blank.]

"What is the most likely consequence of that?" [fill in the blank]

Repeat process.

Your tabletop exercise and mine could easily produce different results, because that happens. All results based on valid steps are worth considering, with preparation priority running from "most likely outcome" to "least likely but possible and worth remembering."

One thing is for sure: This crisis IS producing a lot of psychological effects in a very large number of people that will be long-lasting. Those who get PTSD from unresolved grief or seeing too much sadness may take years to re-achieve their previous level of functioning. NH declared PTSD a "work related injury" last July (it's eligible for benefits) and many other places have done that also. That will be a major expense for some time to come. PTSD doesn't go away overnight, if at all.

The masses will not be the same, mentally, when they come out of hiding. Most peoples' pulse rates have only just returned to normal after 3 weeks of living in a sudden whirlwind apocalypse movie. As an EMT and a storm chaser I've seen horrible stuff before, and I recently suffered horrible unexpected loss (my only sibling, with whom I was close.) That conditioned me to darkness, and it still took me about a week to process the sudden new apocalypse movie around me. For the first 3 days there were times in my waking hours when I actually thought it was a dream, just for a nanosecond.

Now, if that's me and I was pre-conditioned to darkness and horrible sudden loss, I shudder to think about where many others are at, people who aren't acquainted with darkness. Today I spoke with a friend in Boston who IS darkness-acquainted, and he'd heard from people in his life who AREN'T. He said he's been getting continuous calls from them, looking for his shoulder to lean on.

That's not a good sign, if it indicates where the masses are at. From all I've learned about psychology and the effects of rapid change & loss during my journey since 2014, I'm 99% confident most people won't be the same this summer. Some are going to need more time than others, and some are going to discover some new issues by breaking down unexpectedly.

Some people will think they have no issues, they'll get back to what they know (if they can) and in the middle of it they'll have a panic attack without knowing what a panic attack is. They'll end up at the ER thinking it's a heart attack, and they'll come out with a psych referral and some prescriptions they never thought they'd need.

Keep your eyes on human psychology at individual level x population. It's going to be an interesting aftermath.

[ApS]

"Dr. Oz" has his own website, and describes his successes with HCQ (used in Lupus treatment).

'Then interviews a French doctor with his successes.

https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2020/04...cted-covid-19/

[ApS]

”If [Trump] had not been pushing it on a federal level, I would have not had access to it, and I would not be alive today,” she said.

After one doctor denied her request for the drug, the Detroit Democrat turned to Dr. Mohammed Arsiwala.

Arsiwala runs Michigan Urgent Care and says he's had 56 COVID-19 positive patients at nine Detroit-area urgent care facilities. Those who are too sick must be treated in the hospital, but 12 of them, including Whitsett, have been treated with a combination of an antibiotic and hydroxychloroquine". (HCQ).

https://www.abc12.com/content/news/D...569461601.html

[Wifi-1]

Maybe COVID-19 will be the cure for TDS ?

[Lakegeezer]

Canis paints a bleak and possible scenario, but there are positive alternatives to consider. The peaks should be over in a few weeks and in NH may never overwhelm the system. Many tests of different treatments and vaccines are underway and bound to produce something that works, soon. The forecast models are being revised downward, probably reflecting the benefit of social distancing. And, summer is coming for the northern hemisphere.

Many things will recover quickly, some more slowly. The mental trauma that we are all experiencing to some degree will pass for most, but the scars will not disappear. Some permanent changes will be ingrained in world cultures. Preparedness will again become important, along with willingness to trust in science. Just-in-time manufacturing is going to get a second look. Essential services too.

The biggest changes will be in education and medicine. While people working in these categories are learning on the fly, new ways of educating and taking care of people remotely will be figured out. The methods that work won't go away. Our schools will stream world-class instructors to augment lessons. Our health care can be delivered remotely for many interactions, meaning lower costs and better care for those that need hands-on. It won't be long before we have tele-medicine devices in our home to measure all sort of things. For many, working at home will become an attractive option.

In the past, wars were turning points that brought improvements in our cultures, at the expense of people and property. This is a world war, but with a common enemy and hopefully, shorter duration. It will impact people and businesses as all wars do, but with lower impact than an war that uses bullets and bombs. Once won, the world benefits. 2020 will be seen as a turning point, one way or other. I believe there are reasons to look at the glass as half full.