Lake temps/ ice in

[CanisLupusArctos]

Earlier this evening the probe at 2 feet deep went to 32. The probe at 10 feet was 35. This is the normal wintertime temp pattern when it is frozen. My guess is that the snow falling in the water, which was already at 36, lowered the temp a lot more. There's no doubt it's ready to freeze as soon as it sits still. The question is, when will it sit still?

Saturday: Windy and cold, high 19. (More chilling of the water.)

Sunday: Possible Nor'Easter, more snow. (More chilling of the water.)

Monday: Very windy and very cold, high 14. (Mega chilling of the water.)

Tuesday, maybe? Wednesday brings another storm.

[CanisLupusArctos]

This morning the water temperature at Black Cat Island is again down to 32 at the depth of 2 feet, and 33 at 10 feet. It has been trying to freeze when still, but has not been very still for the last several days. Today the northwest wind howls once again; we are gusting to 28 mph and wave heights are about 2 feet. There are several bergs of ice formed from the snow, which never melted in the lake water.

[BoulderBronco]

Anyone have any updates/info on the ice? Is meredith still iced over or has it gone away with this warmer weather? How about the rest of the lake?

[Resident 2B]

About the current ice situation:

The Good is that the water is cold, in fact cold enough to freeze on a normal night without wind.

The Bad is that it will get warmer the next day or so, likely record warmth. It will also get windy. This will break up and melt most of the thin ice that is in the coves.

The Ugly is the wind. I do not see any stretch of time where it will be cold without wind between now and about Jan 6th. There is a short period around Jan 1 and 2 that might become more promising for the ice, but right now it does not look cold enough or calm enough.

Unfortunately, it might get uglier! It is my personal opinion that from mid January to late February, it is likely to be warmer than normal. It will still be cold, this is northern New England in the winter, but compared to normal, I see it on the warmer side.

For those technical folks out there, I see the trough near the east coast moving (retro-grading) westward and holding a blocking position near the Rocky's, giving them winter and us the warmer flow found on the east side of a trough, with a ridge over us or slightly to our east enhancing the northward flow of the warm air about a month from now. That is why I think it will be above normal here from Jan 20th to late February.

I really hope that I am wrong with this, but that is the way it looks to me at this time.

R2B

[BoulderBronco]

Well I hope you are wrong. Looks like the temps are going to drop quite a bit after tonight. Looks good to me for the next week or so. Alton is still frozen which is good but I am still wondering about Meredith bay. Frozen?

[Resident 2B]

BB,

I took a ride up to Meredith this afternoon to get you an updated status of the Meredith Bay ice.

The ice is covering more of the bay than I had thought. It extends down to Grouse Point and across to Pinnacle Point. From there it is wide open. There is no ice in the area where the falls exit into the bay to the left of the launching ramp as you look out from the land.

The ice looks like it will hold and build with the cold weather the next week. Alton is also iced up well past Sandy Point.

It will be windy the next week or so, so unless the wind dies down, I do not think we will see much more new ice.

I have some photos that I hope to get up in the next day or so.

Happy New Year!

R2B

[BoulderBronco]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

BB,

I took a ride up to Meredith this afternoon to get you an updated status of the Meredith Bay ice.

The ice is covering more of the bay than I had thought. It extends down to Grouse Point and across to Pinnacle Point. From there it is wide open. There is no ice in the area where the falls exit into the bay to the left of the launching ramp as you look out from the land.

The ice looks like it will hold and build with the cold weather the next week. Alton is also iced up well past Sandy Point.

It will be windy the next week or so, so unless the wind dies down, I do not think we will see much more new ice.

I have some photos that I hope to get up in the next day or so.

Happy New Year!

R2B

Top notch report. Thanks. Thats ahead of schedule. I hope you didn't drive up there just to look at the ice for me. I assumed someone lived there. My parents are up there all this week so they will be watching. I am looking for one of those real cold winters. Where there is a "highway" down the bay and 24" of solid black ice. It's been almolst ten years since we drove our trucks out there. This year is going to be fun. Thanks again.
Chris

[Little Bear]

Once the wind stopped, ice formed from the Ames Farm area all the way out to Diamond Island and Rattlesnake Island. I saw some lights out on the southwest end of Rattlesnake last night, so if there is someone staying out there, they were iced in this morning.

[Lakegeezer]

North of Moultonborough Bay, the ice is about 3" thick and can be carefully walked on. Most of the snow has been blown off the ice once you move away from shore. Not too much human activity yet - but it was safe enough to walk out and shoot off some fireworks on the night of New Year's day. Moultonborough Bay is iced-in as far as I can see.

Jan 3 update: Ice is 6" plus. The pressure ridge at the north entrance to M'boro bay has formed.

Jan 10 update: Ran the snowmobile from the trail entrance in Smith Cove in M'boro bay up to Lees Mills and through the woods trail into Greens Basin area. The ice is very solid in all places except the typical open water going into Greens. Even both sides of Little Ganzy are solid. There is enough snow on the ice to make it great driving.

[boat_guy64]

After the wind died down last night, Meredith Bay became completely iced in. Ice formed from Grouse Point all the way out to the Weirs. I'm sure it is very thin but probably enough to protect it from any wind damage and to allow it to continue to thicken. On my way to Lowes this morning I also noticed that Paugus Bay is also iced over. A couple more cold days like we've had and a little less wind and we'll make some serious progress on ice in.

[tis]

There was one lone bob house out today in front of Libby Museum.

[Resident 2B]

It is great to see the lake getting more ice last night.

In post #48 of this thread, I mentioned that we could get a short period of little or no wind on the 1st and 2nd. That happened and we got good, but thin ice coverage. However, as expected, the calm period will be short. Tonight, we should have wind gusts back up to 20 - 30 MPH mainly from the west. Some ice will survive and some will not. It is wind from the NW or SE that do the most ice damage so west is not the worse direction for ice lovers.

We will have another period of cold weather and low winds the 6th and 7th as I expected, then another around the 10th and 11th, that might be with a bit if snow.

I still think the weather to go above normal around the 20th and lasting through Febraury. If the lake has iced up, this should not be a big deal, but open areas will likely stay open if this materializes.

Saty safe out there!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

The ice to the southeast of Black Cat Island has remained in place despite very windy weather today. Winds are currently gusting to 34 mph and are sustained at 16 mph. We have had a peak gust of 48 mph this afternoon. Yet, the ice is still there.

[Resident 2B]

I am surprised that so little new ice got eaten up by all the wind we have had for the last 12 hours or so. I think it has to do with the relatively cold water.

The Broads are still wide open, but in all the bays I saw today, and in every area except for the main part of the broads, the ice was holding. It also looks like ice that will develop into real solid ice given the cold temps we will see for the next ten to fifteen days.

Please, everyone, be safe and let Mother Nature do her job in making the ice thick before you think about going out on it.

I see a few 12 to 20 hour periods in the next week or so where it will be very cold with very little wind. Hopefully, this will allow the ice to cover most of the broads.

R2B

[Treerider]

The Nightrider and I fished on Winter Harbor today on 2" of ice!!! only in 3-4 ft of water!! we didn't see any open water looking from winter harbor towards the broads all the way to Rattlesnake!

[Resident 2B]

I realize that I have predicted a thaw of some magnitude for the last week to ten days of January. However, between now and then it is going to get very cold!

Starting Wednesday and lasting through the weekend, daytime highs will be between 8 and 14 degrees and it will be below zero at night, possibly -10F on a few nights.

This will build ice much more than any possible thaw will take it away.

All winter events, the Derby and the Carnivals, are looking real good right now.

Thank God the cost of oil is down!

Stay safe and keep warm!

R2B

[BoulderBronco]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

I realize that I have predicted a thaw of some magnitude for the last week to ten days of January. However, between now and then it is going to get very cold!

Starting Wednesday and lasting through the weekend, daytime highs will be between 8 and 14 degrees and it will be below zero at night, possibly -10F on a few nights.

This will build ice much more than any possible thaw will take it away.

All winter events, the Derby and the Carnivals, are looking real good right now.

Thank God the cost of oil is down!

Stay safe and keep warm!

R2B

Sweet. I've been watching that cold air coming down from the arctic. I'm thinking 18-22"" of ice half way down Meredith bay. That would mean a solid 22-26" down at the docks. It's been so long since we had that much ice. Should make for big crowds and lots of trucks on the ice. Can't wait.