Is it really going to rain?

Rose · 07-17-2008, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

Remember, a 50% chance of showers (in summer) usually means literally that showers will be scattered around the area in such a way that 50% of all points in the area get a shower, while the other 50% do not.

From the National Weather Service Operations Manual, the Probability of Precipitation (POP) forecast is "The likelihood of occurrence (expressed as a percent) of a precipitation event at any given point in the forecast area. The time period to which the POP applies must be clearly stated (or unambiguously inferred from the forecast wording) since, without this, a numerical POP value is meaningless." (http://www.weather.gov/wsom/manual/a...411.HTML#z8-31)

So if the POP forecast for Laconia is 30%, then there is a 30% chance that Laconia will see precipitation.

CanisLupusArctos · 07-18-2008, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rose

From the National Weather Service Operations Manual, the Probability of Precipitation (POP) forecast is "The likelihood of occurrence (expressed as a percent) of a precipitation event at any given point in the forecast area. The time period to which the POP applies must be clearly stated (or unambiguously inferred from the forecast wording) since, without this, a numerical POP value is meaningless." (http://www.weather.gov/wsom/manual/a...411.HTML#z8-31)

So if the POP forecast for Laconia is 30%, then there is a 30% chance that Laconia will see precipitation.

Thank you for the correction. My previous understanding was explained to me a few years ago by a NWS meteorologist... who apparently should spend more time reading the manual.

Rose · 07-18-2008, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

Thank you for the correction. My previous understanding was explained to me a few years ago by a NWS meteorologist... who apparently should spend more time reading the manual.

This is one I have to keep refreshing my mind on. Thankfully, the NWS has plenty of this stuff online.

CanisLupusArctos · 07-18-2008, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rose

This is one I have to keep refreshing my mind on. Thankfully, the NWS has plenty of this stuff online.

Is it a public link or is the manual only on internal servers? I always thought that stuff wasn't public but if it is, it would be interesting to read it sometime.

Rose · 07-18-2008, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

Is it a public link or is the manual only on internal servers? I always thought that stuff wasn't public but if it is, it would be interesting to read it sometime.

I found the portion relating to POPs and included the link in post #4 using Google. Snipping bits off that link I found the NWS Directives System, which I haven't gone through yet.

Federal Meteorological Handbooks come in handy. You can find them at the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology under Publications.

Now, probably the coolest site is MetEd, which I haven't had any free time to explore much. You have to register, but I think it's available to everyone.

viands · 07-22-2008, 09:05 AM

Dear Mrs. Mosher,

On behalf of the entire board, our apologies, you were right. It is possible.

The Board

meteotrade · 07-22-2008, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by viands

Dear Mrs. Mosher,

On behalf of the entire board, our apologies, you were right. It is possible.

Unreal. I posted earlier that a washout week in late July is nearly impossible... and this will be the closest thing to it that I've ever seen! Amazingly persistent southerly flow continues over the next few days. Today's probably the best day out of the next few- at least some breaks of sun and low t-storm chances. WED/THU will have widespread tropical downpours. Finally a nice day on FRI.

chipj29 · 07-22-2008, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meteotrade

Unreal. I posted earlier that a washout week in late July is nearly impossible... and this will be the closest thing to it that I've ever seen! Amazingly persistent southerly flow continues over the next few days. Today's probably the best day out of the next few- at least some breaks of sun and low t-storm chances. WED/THU will have widespread tropical downpours. Finally a nice day on FRI.

I wouldn't call this a washout week at all. I have been on vacation for the last 12 days, with 6 remaining. Sure we have had some storms and rain showers, but nothing I have cancelled plans over. I have had plenty of outdoor fun, and will enjoy the next 6 days, even if we do get a couple of storms.

jerseyonbear · 07-22-2008, 09:42 PM

We arrive this weekend for two weeks we have waited for since last summer. It is much nicer with sunny days when 4 little ones can be outside and not under one roof. A couple of days of Old Maid and Crazy Eights is enough. Looking forward to sun fun and relaxation. Haven't checked the weather long range.We have had a real heat wave in New Jersey.

SIKSUKR · 07-23-2008, 09:36 AM

Not a washout week but this one has me backtracking on my earlier post.What a strange pattern we are in.Usually when we have t-storms,they are associated with a cold front that moves through and replaces the humid air with more dry canadian air.To have day upon day of humidity along with almost a solid week of daily t-storms is very unusual.

meteotrade · 07-23-2008, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chipj29

I wouldn't call this a washout week at all. I have been on vacation for the last 12 days, with 6 remaining.

1) Last week was a top ten week... a real winner. Unfortunately many folks, including Mrs. Mosher, are not as fortunate as you to have 18 days at the lake! (must be nice...

)

2) I'm pretty sure you'll be singing a different tune by Thursday night... today and tomorrow look downright miserable. Siksukr's right... this is a very atypical pattern for late July.

Jerseyonbear, next week looks better but not perfect... trough is still on top of us so temps will probably continue a bit below normal although rain chances are lower. The following week will likely turn warmer.

chipj29 · 07-23-2008, 02:06 PM

I can def. agree that this weather has not been typical. The humidity is unbearable. The only plans I have cancelled so far on my vacation was last Friday. The kids and I were scheduled to go to Water Country for the day. The day turned out to be hot and sunny...but we had to cancel as my son broke his hand on Thursday.

Sman · 07-23-2008, 02:36 PM

My neighbor always says a rainy day at the lake is better than a rainy day at home...some truth to that but it depends how much money you have spent on your vacation and how many kids you have, for those of you on vaca, its time for bloody Mary maybe

chipj29 · 07-24-2008, 11:04 AM

I stand corrected on the rain not cancelling any plans. The last couple of days have been lame at best. I had not 1 but 2 softball games cancelled last night. Tonights game is almost sure to be rained out. Oh well, vacation is winding down, and I needed a couple down days anyway. As long as the sun comes out over the next 3 days I will be good.

07-22-2008, 09:42 PM	#9
jerseyonbear Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 97 Thanks: 96 Thanked 7 Times in 6 Posts	Hope the rain is over We arrive this weekend for two weeks we have waited for since last summer. It is much nicer with sunny days when 4 little ones can be outside and not under one roof. A couple of days of Old Maid and Crazy Eights is enough. Looking forward to sun fun and relaxation. Haven't checked the weather long range.We have had a real heat wave in New Jersey.

07-23-2008, 09:36 AM	#10
SIKSUKR Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,075 Thanks: 215 Thanked 903 Times in 509 Posts	Mrs Mosher was correct,sort of Not a washout week but this one has me backtracking on my earlier post.What a strange pattern we are in.Usually when we have t-storms,they are associated with a cold front that moves through and replaces the humid air with more dry canadian air.To have day upon day of humidity along with almost a solid week of daily t-storms is very unusual. __________________ SIKSUKR

07-23-2008, 02:36 PM	#13
Sman Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 103 Thanks: 3 Thanked 27 Times in 8 Posts	rain My neighbor always says a rainy day at the lake is better than a rainy day at home...some truth to that but it depends how much money you have spent on your vacation and how many kids you have, for those of you on vaca, its time for bloody Mary maybe

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07-22-2008, 09:05 AM	#6
viands Junior Member Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 17 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Dear Mrs. Mosher, On behalf of the entire board, our apologies, you were right. It is possible. The Board

07-23-2008, 02:06 PM	#12
chipj29 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Bow Posts: 1,874 Thanks: 521 Thanked 308 Times in 162 Posts	I can def. agree that this weather has not been typical. The humidity is unbearable. The only plans I have cancelled so far on my vacation was last Friday. The kids and I were scheduled to go to Water Country for the day. The day turned out to be hot and sunny...but we had to cancel as my son broke his hand on Thursday.

07-24-2008, 11:04 AM	#14
chipj29 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Bow Posts: 1,874 Thanks: 521 Thanked 308 Times in 162 Posts	I stand corrected on the rain not cancelling any plans. The last couple of days have been lame at best. I had not 1 but 2 softball games cancelled last night. Tonights game is almost sure to be rained out. Oh well, vacation is winding down, and I needed a couple down days anyway. As long as the sun comes out over the next 3 days I will be good.