Ice-Out 2008

[Bear Island South]

[QUOTE=Pine Island Guy;68063]we had to push through a little ice, but managed to squeak around and through the cracks to the island!!

we're here

Did you launch from Sheps or the Y landing, we are hoping to get to our place next weekend

[Pepper]

Bear Island South - by next weekend you will be able to launch from wherever you want, because THE ICE WILL BE OUT!

[Bear Island South]

[QUOTE=Pepper;68086]Bear Island South - by next weekend you will be able to launch from wherever you want, because THE ICE WILL BE OUT! :

I agree, I'm getting the boat ready today

[CanisLupusArctos]

In the last couple of hours at Black Cat we have seen the ice start to make its annual move. Winds are from the southeast and increasing. Heat ripples continue above the surface of the ice in the distance, indicating that it is still absorbing heat from the surrounding area (60s in most locations) while the island is much cooler.

The ice is breaking up rapidly and bergs moving SE to NW.

I just drove along Rts. 11 - 3 - 25 from Rochester to Center Harbor along the lake shore and found at every view the ice was rotten, breaking up, and lots of evidence of movement as far as I could see.

Prior to yesterday I wouldn't have believed it would go out this week but now I think iceout by Friday is likely. It has absorbed a LOT of heat in the last 3 days and now it appears likely that we'll be having temps in the 70s most of this week, possibly low 80s again in a few places on Wednesday. This fair weather pattern is also bringing a sundown wind starting early in the day (1-2 p.m. each day) which has been an unpredicted weakening force on the ice the last 3 days. I expect this pattern to continue for most of the week.

The sundown wind is being locally enhanced by the temperature differences between the ice-cooled air over the lake and the warmth of the surrounding area which has been and will continue to be abnormally warm for this time of year. Currently the winds at Concord, Laconia, and Plymouth are sustained 8-10 mph with gusts to 16 or so, while Black Cat WeatherCam is sustained at 16 gusting to 24.

Further speeding this year's iceout has been abnormally dry air (dewpoints in the 20s) which have coupled with the localized wind to literally dry up (scientific term - 'sublimate') the surface of the ice.

Those who have docks that have any exposure to east or SE, watch out... the ice is moving.

[nj2nh]

I have been checking the area webcams with some frequency in the last couple of days. I checked on the Winnipesaukee Cam on Alton Bay near Little Mark Island and it looked almost completely full of ice although the cam in the Bay showed no ice.

Here is the link to the cam: http://www.winnipesaukeecam.com/

Well, just now (6:30pm) I checked again. I was stunned to see NO ICE anywhere. Could the bay be completely ice free?

nj2nh

[Island Girl]

I had a lovely flight over the lake today.. although the pictures you will see over the next couple of hours show ice... that is is mostly ice crystals with water between... since then (around 1pm this afternoon, April 20,) a lot has changed and there are many more open areas than seen in this picture.

This shot is of the backside of Rattlesnake Island looking towards Diamond Island.

I just may win that Lobster Roll from flyguy!!!!

[Pepper]

IG - awesome shots from today! I have to agree that the ice is extremely weak at this point, and judging by all the movement today it won't take long for all of it to go!

There was A LOT of air traffic this afternoon - must be a few other folks were as anxious as you to have a look for themselves. It was truly a fabulous day for flying, so maybe some just had a good dose of spring fever.

I was on the ground, in reasonable proximity to the end of the runway, and was amazed at how many planes were up! Glad that one of them was you, and you had your camera with!

[Island Girl]

Flying around the lake was such an incredible treat... just the best! Here is Governor's Island this afternoon... more pictures in Photopost.

IG

[DRH]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Flying around the lake was such an incredible treat... just the best! Here is Governor's Island this afternoon... more pictures in Photopost.
IG

I'll bet you had a great time flying over the lake today watching the ice go out! Hope to see more of your photos soon!

[Webbsatwinni]

Great pictures IG, now we can all live vicariously through you and watch the ice out from the sky.

Thank You!

[codeman671]

The way some of the cameras look now, especially Varney Point, I would not be surprised if I could make it to Mark now!

Anyone been out poking around? Too bad I told them I did not need the boat until Friday.

[Pepper]

At around 10:30 this morning the ice began to move once again. Images at the Black Cat Weather Cam, the Weirs Cam, the Abakee Cam and Proctor's cam show the most motion so far. Proctor's is showing the flow "out" of the ice which is passing the Weirs Cam and heading down through the channel. Over the past 30 minutes or so the motion has really stepped up it's pace.

The Bear Cams all seem to have "hiccuped" this morning, and are stuck. It will be interesting to see the changes once they begin broadcasting new images.

I did see a gigantic heart-shaped floe go sailing past the Varney Point Cam, then about a half hour later there was a small boat in the view. Definately a lot of clear water there!

DRH's photo this morning shows a distinct shrink too!

Fairhaven Cam shows a significant amount of ice flowing in and breaking up as well.

No boutadoutit - it's a mass-suicide of ice going on.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Pepper

At around 10:30 this morning the ice began to move once again. Images at the Black Cat Weather Cam, the Weirs Cam, the Abakee Cam and Proctor's cam show the most motion so far.

At the Black Cat WeatherCam if you click on 'Previous Images' and then start the 3-hour time lapse you'll see the motion of the last 3 hours. Pics are taken every 2 minutes.) Yesterday's was cool, once it started moving around 1:30 p.m. Today we're expecting more of the same as the southeast wind (coming right up the length of the lake) has gotten active much earlier in the day than it did the last few days. Now sustained at 10 gusting 14. Heat ripples starting to appear above the ice again. The island is already 10 degrees cooler than Laconia which means the ice is already actively eating heat and melting.

[Grant]

Today's Black Cat time lapse loop also shows some serious darkening of the remaining slush. Soon it will "darken" right into the drink.

CLA: Love those time lapses...one of my favorite things to view from afar in any season. Thanks.

[TimmyG]

Being a first timer to this Ice-Out event, and given the current condition of the lake with all this glorious warmth, what is the prognosis for the official declaration?

I was at Fay's this weekend and they are furiously getting boats in the water. There was a little thin ice in Smith's cove, but all of the docks were very clear. I just scheduled my new boat launch to happen this Saturday. I am so excited.

TG

[Island Girl]

Just a note to new boaters. Just because Ice-Out gets declared, it does not mean that the lake is free from ice. There are often a few icebergs.. some just under the surface. Hitting one would not be fun. Additionally, there is typically lots of debris on the lake such as sticks. logs, chunks of docks and wood that are not easily seen. It is not a good idea to go speeding around at first. Please pick up any debris you encounter if it is safe to do so.. you may save someone else's boat.

The water is very cold and the breeze off the water is chilly. The air temperature may be warm, but it will still be cool in the boats on plane... I always have jackets, hats and gloves in the boat this time of year.

It will be very soon
Be careful out there
IG

[rrr]

I'm guessing that there may be more debris than usual this year. We've noticed a couple of spots where it looked like bob houses must have become embedded in the ice and when it came time to remove them - a portion got left behind!

have fun and be careful

[TimmyG]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Just a note to new boaters. Just because Ice-Out gets declared, it does not mean that the lake is free from ice. There are often a few icebergs..

Thanks everyone for the good info. I am going to lauch this Saturday from Fay's. I know that there is still some ice out there and debris. since it's a new boat the mechanic at Fay's will be with me to go through all the sytems and to do the sea test. No high speed traversing yet until I get used to the boat and the lake.

I can't wait to see everyone out there.

TG

[Grady223]

Originally Posted by TimmyG

Being a first timer to this Ice-Out event, and given the current condition of the lake with all this glorious warmth, what is the prognosis for the official declaration?

I was at Fay's this weekend and they are furiously getting boats in the water. There was a little thin ice in Smith's cove, but all of the docks were very clear. I just scheduled my new boat launch to happen this Saturday. I am so excited.

TG

I think Saturday should be OK, but heed Island Girl's warnings - much debris in the lake - takes a couple of good windy days and considerate boaters to clean it up.

Water temp is 38, 40 is the key - usually shortly after the water gets to 40 ice is out. With mid to high 60s toward the middle of the week and a good northwest wind on Thursday - me thinks Friday is the day.

[Resident 2B]

CLA,

Your 3 hour video is great, as is the rest of your weather site. It is full of very useful information that adds real value to this forum and to all with a lakes region weather interest.

The ability to see conditions around the lake on days like this really help in assessing how quickly the ice is melting. Today the ice is really cooling the air in places where the wind is off the lake. As you pointed out, what is really happening is that the ice is sucking in heat from the air and melting very quickly. I am now confident in an April ice-out date. I was thinking May a few days ago.

Thanks for providing this service to all of us!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

CLA,

Your 3 hour video is great, as is the rest of your weather site. It is full of very useful information that adds real value to this forum and to all with a lakes region weather interest.

The ability to see conditions around the lake on days like this really help in assessing how quickly the ice is melting. Today the ice is really cooling the air in places where the wind is off the lake. As you pointed out, what is really happening is that the ice is sucking in heat from the air and melting very quickly. I am now confident in an April ice-out date. I was thinking May a few days ago.

Thanks for providing this service to all of us!

R2B

Your'e welcome. The site is a part of a dream fulfilled, one that I had since before the technology was there to support it (as in, "Wouldn't it be cool if...") So thank you and all for your interest in it - makes it worthwhile. It's also great forecasting weather alongside you and Rose, and others when they chime in - makes me see things I overlook or never knew.

Well... about iceout... it was fun to ride from Moultonborough to Center Harbor this morning with the windows down. It was about 70 in Moultonborough and then when I got to about the savings bank in Center Harbor, a cold blast of air came in the window. This was from the southeast wind coming ashore there, with the heat sucked out of it by the ice.

I've noticed as the ice has taken a much grayer tone in the last 3 hours (Thank you Grant for pointing that out) the air has also been warmer today. Not as much heat has been sucked out of the air in the last 3 hours. We started the day with a 15-degree temp difference between here and the mainland, and now we're down to about a 10-degree difference. In response, the "lake breeze" has also slowed down. This tells me the ice may be nearing its capacity for heat absorption and is therefore ready to darken right into the lake as Grant said.

Here is my prediction for iceout: Wednesday. My reasoning is that today the ice is near its capacity for heat absorption. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today, which should separate and slushify the ice. That will make it especially vulnerable to Wednesday's summery forecast. I'm going for 79-83 around the lakes region with a few places like Concord or Plymouth perhaps touching 85. Islands and immediate shorelines should be around 75. This heat will probably melt enough of the ice to make it official. If not Wednesday, then definitely Thursday or Friday.

IG has a great point however: New boaters beware! "Right after iceout" is not a good time to go boating unless you really know what you're doing. There's usually debris in the lake, a few leftover icebergs hiding, and the biggest thing is the cold water. In any boat ride the operator(s) have to be ready for "person overboard." In this cold water, anyone who falls overboard is probably in a 911 situation unless you can get them back aboard within seconds. Unlike summertime water, this cold water makes it very, very difficult for a person overboard to cooperate or help with their own rescue, so the burden falls primarily on others. Also, anyone who has been overboard or who takes a good splash from over the rail is going to get hypothermia quickly unless they have a way to dry off and warm up right away.

[MAXUM]

Every year I'm usually one of the first out there on the lake fishing as the ice is either gone or just about to disappear and I can for sure tell you from experience to heed these warnings of debris in the water. Whether it be pieces of wood, pieces of trees (yes no kidding) and of course the occasional ice berg.

The other very important thing too is that you CANNOT under any circumstances trust that the markers are either in their proper position or even in place. Winter time activities tend to take a toll on the markers and many get broken during the winter. Those that are not broken can be pulled around by the shifting ice during the spring melt and may be no where near where they are supposed to be. It takes the MP some time to get them replaced or put back where they belong. So take a navigation map with you and best go places where you know for sure where the markers should be, not where they are or risk paying the price.

With any luck I'll be splashing my new boat this weekend!

[Formula260SS]

Talked to a guy who made it out to the back side of Rattlesnake today, from what he said the ice is ready to go, let's hope for some good weather this weekend. I will repeat what everyone knows, debris debris....go slow and stay in the boat.

[Pepper]

I just watched the final three hours of daylight stream on CLA's cam, and was astounded at the wild movement of some REALLY HUGE sheets!

It is also truly much darker then when I last looked around noontime.

Despite the prognostications of my dear friends at Emerson Aviation, I'm in total agreement with CLA - it's going to happen within the next several days. Between the weakening of the ice, and the coming heat, added to the potential for some good breeze, there's no way I can imagine it could withstand all that.

On your mark: Get set: Go fish some debris out of the water!

[flyguy]

Have to admit, I was counting on those 50+ degree days in the forecast to slow down the melt. Since that didn't happen, I did the next best thing- I PUT MY SNOWBLOWER AWAY- That should bring just enough really cold, snowy weather to delay IceOut a few days!!!

Don't forget, it ain't over 'til the Mount can make it to ALL it's ports. I hope to go take another look in a day or so. (Maybe I'll fly with Dave Emerson - is that considered cheating, IG? )

(That's me trying be wildly optimistic while saving my change for that lobster roll!!)

[BlackCatIslander]

At 40 degrees, we have caught up with last year quickly. It looks that ice out should be official by the week end at the very latest. Then we can get the dock in and pick up the boat!

[CanisLupusArctos]

This morning, once again, there was a 100-foot-thick layer of fog hanging over the ice. During the winter, fog is a good sign of a rapidly diminishing snow pack, and it's not much different with lake ice instead of snow. What's key is that the temp was above freezing (35) this morning. With 100% humidity (fog) there was no possibility for evaporation in open parts of the lake to cool the surface below freezing. Therefore the water temp had a much higher starting point once the sun came up.

Iceout seems set to occur as soon as "the last straw" falls. The water temp here is playing with the 40-degree mark at the surface and has remained 39 underneath. The temp around the area is now pretty uniform at 71 degrees while we're 52 on the island. Once again the SE wind has kicked up, driven by this temperature difference between land and lake.

While I don't see strong wind in the forecast, I still see the mainland hitting 80 tomorrow and I see shifting winds.

For the past few days we've been locked into this lake breeze which has blown all the ice up from SE to NW where it's been locked against the islands and shorelines. It needs stirring, and I think we have a shot at getting a little stirring tomorrow and Thursday.

Winds will shift into the SW tomorrow as a cold front approaches (winds ahead of a cold front tend to blow along it.) Tomorrow night the front will pass, causing winds to shift into the NW. Any ice that remains after tomorrow's heat will likely endure the cold front's rain showers and then get blown back down to the Barndoor end of the lake when the front passes.

[wifi]

Its certainly looking and feeling dry, in the areas there is no snow or run off, atleast to me Are we heading into a dryer than normal season, (with forest fire danger) or are we going to be growing those ticks, mosquitoes and black flies again ?

[Island Girl]

Originally Posted by flyguy

Don't forget, it ain't over 'til the Mount can make it to ALL it's ports. I hope to go take another look in a day or so. (Maybe I'll fly with Dave Emerson - is that considered cheating, IG? )

(That's me trying be wildly optimistic while saving my change for that lobster roll!!)

Go on and fly with Dave... can I come?

[Blue Thunder]

IG, you've got a PM.....

BT

[CanisLupusArctos]

This evening we have seen a change in the weather. The southeast lake breeze of the past several days has now shifted into the west. This will mean much warmer weather for tomorrow since it is a breeze from off the continent instead of the ocean. For most of NH south and east of the Appalachian Mountains, it also means warmer by pressure. Air heats up due to increased pressure as it loses elevation, and we'll be getting some of that tomorrow, too.

Since most locations around here were in the upper 70s today (including Laconia), I am guessing mid-80s will be pretty common for tomorrow. This combined with two different wind directions expected (SW shifting to NW) should stir the ice around, keep it moving instead of crammed up against one side of the lake, and may well result in iceout tomorrow.

Even at this late hour the surface water temp at Black Cat WeatherCam is holding at 39 degrees, and the dewpoint isn't much lower than the temperature so there's not a whole lot of evaporation cooling that can take place on the lake tonight. Should serve as a springboard to push the water temp above 40 tomorrow with summer weather and even a chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. A few places may have them but not everyone.

[Grady223]

Water temperature has hit 40 degrees, any day now - with 16 mph northwest winds expected tomorrow - we are on the brink. Opening the island house next weekend is a certainty - I was doubtful a week ago!

[Island Girl]

It is hard to focus on work this morning with the incredible changes every few minutes on the ice melt. The webcams that still show a little ice change with every picture... less and less ice.. such fun to watch!

Welcome to spring!
IG

[Steveo]

Depending on when Emersons flys I would say Ice Out could be today. Right now ports that are clear are: Weirs Beach, Alton and Wolfboro (one small flow about to self destruct). I am not sure of Meredith and Center Harbor. If Emersons flys this afternoon I bet it will be declared; otherwise it will definately be tomorrow.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Shifting winds during the night and morning have resulted in the various icebergs becoming separated finally. They are now drifting as individuals in the lake. Several of them are still blocking the path of the MOUNT to the southeast of Black Cat Island. However, the SW wind ahead of the approaching cold front hasn't gotten strong enough to fight the SE lake breeze entirely. This has resulted in alternating SE-SW winds which are keeping the lake stirring and the icebergs moving in circles. The motion combined with the heat of the day (still a few hours away) is melting them rapidly.

The water temp has risen to 43 today at the surface and remains 39 underneath.

The temperature at the WeatherCam rises a few degrees every time the wind comes from the SW and falls when it kicks back to the SE. It's been a very topsy-turvy day for temps here, with a high of 66 so far. In Laconia and Plymouth the noontime temp is up to 75, and Rochester has already hit 80. The highest can be expected about 3 p.m.

Tonight, winds will shift into the NW behind the cold front. It is a weak front, so we're not expecting a huge temp drop tomorrow. NWS has updated tomorrow and Friday temps to 70.

[Bear Islander]

The last of the ice can be seen on some of the IceOut Cams.

http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm

I like the shifting winds part because I am trying to make a time lapse ice out video. Shifting winds makes the ice dance.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by Steveo

Depending on when Emersons flys I would say Ice Out could be today. Right now ports that are clear are: Weirs Beach, Alton and Wolfboro (one small flow about to self destruct). I am not sure of Meredith and Center Harbor. If Emersons flys this afternoon I bet it will be declared; otherwise it will definately be tomorrow.

Steveo,

I think you are right on!

Let the boating season begin!!

R2B

[camp guy]

I draw your attentrion to a remark made by "Slickcraft" about picking up some debris while out on the Lake.

This is a VERY dangerous time of year to be boating - so much debris washed into the Lake, floating at just water level, posing a menace to boats.

I never did any real boatong until after a couple of big winds. There is nothing like a full day of NW wind to purge the Lake of most of the casual debris.

Be careful at this time of year, but, ENJOY!!.