Saturday, March 8 and a "block" for late March

CanisLupusArctos · 03-06-2008, 06:26 PM

The National Weather Service in Gray ME has issued a winter storm watch for all of New Hampshire except the counties along the Massachusetts border. This watch is for Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. The winter storm watch is also in effect for all of Vermont except the MA border counties, and all of Maine except extreme coastal.

The latest NWS forecast calls for 2-4 inches of snow in the lakes region followed by possibly damaging ice accumulations.

Joe Cupo on WCSH-6 Portland (NBC) has just said he thinks the precipitation will start as rain and change to snow as cold air moves in from Canada during the day on Saturday. He said he expects mostly snow and sleet in the mountains, with gradually more rain mixing toward the coast, but all areas trend towards snow as the cold air moves in.

Whatever falls as liquid will freeze on Monday as the cold air takes hold.

GWC... · 03-07-2008, 11:49 AM

This should prove interesting...

Skip · 03-07-2008, 05:09 PM

Just a quick note to say thanks guys & gals!

This has been one of the most interesting and informative threads I've had the privilege to visit this winter.

I confess, I am a closet weather junky....and as tempted as I am to jump in to the conversation my expertise pales in comparison the CLP, R2B, and one of the rarer but in my top 10 favorite posters list - Rose!

I hope you folks keep this thread alive, especially into the summer months, 'cause this is the kind of stuff that makes this website so unique!

CanisLupusArctos · 03-07-2008, 05:12 PM

The National Weather Service in Gray Maine has issued a flood watch and a winter weather advisory for Belknap County, and a winter weather advisory for southern Carroll County.

The winter weather advisory is for ice accumulations of .25" to .5" and the flood watch is for the possibility of 3 inches of rain falling on top of the existing snowpack. At this point they are only expecting small river and stream flooding, as the larger rivers still have a few more feet to rise before they'll overflow.

The storm is becoming quite noteworthy throughout the eastern half of the nation. Blizzard warnings are now in effect for a large portion of Ohio. Winter storm warnings and snow advisories extend from western New York State southward to all but southernmost portions of Alabama and Mississippi, and the northeast corner of Louisiana. Snow is currently falling in northernmost Mississippi and is expected to expand in coverage.

We are expected to receive the rainy eastern side of the storm as it tracks very close to the northwest of here. A shift in the storm track to the southeast by just 100 or 200 miles (very small, in the grand scheme of things) would result in our receiving several inches of snow. Otherwise, if the current forecast track verifies, we will receive a fair amount of icing and some very heavy rain.

Rose · 03-08-2008, 10:42 AM

Thanks for the kind words and vote of confidence, Skip

. It was a nice thing to read on a lousy Friday. All the credit goes to R2B and CLA for drawing me back to forecasting with their well-informed and thought out posts.

You should really jump in any time into these threads. Making observations, asking questions....any input is great. Answering questions helps to reinforce and expand ones knowledge. And we know any questions or comments from you, Skip, are going to be of the highest quality.

Lakegeezer · 03-08-2008, 06:07 PM

The coming storm may help the flood situation in the long run. An inch or so of warm water will corn up the snow and melt through the ice. The thawed ground can then start soaking up the water. Maybe we'll dodge the flood bullet this year.

CanisLupusArctos · 03-08-2008, 07:28 PM

I won't say it's not possible, LG. At this point I'll agree anything is possible. I have to eat some 'humble pie' as this storm passes: I had sided with cold air and more ice, and we've had almost no ice at all this time around. Temps in the low-30s, and plain rain, now approaching the 1-inch mark for storm total.

Even Mount Washington is reporting plain rain and 32 degrees.

The cold air has been just to our west. The western half of New York and Pennsylvania have been getting all snow from this, and temps have been running in the teens and low-20s all around Lakes Erie and Ontario. This cold air will be making its way in here tonight, and will be staying for a couple of days.

As I write this, Kevin Mannix on Ch-6 Portland is talking about a repeat of this storm, a week from today.

The load limit signs are now up, along Center Harbor and Moultonborough's highways. The signs remain covered for now, until the DOT determines they're needed.

Rose · 03-09-2008, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

As I write this, Kevin Mannix on Ch-6 Portland is talking about a repeat of this storm, a week from today.

This storm was on the GFS on the 12Z run on Thursday (I think that was the run I was looking at). Looking at the 00Z GFS run this morning, it's still there, but the northern and southern streams don't phase, and the bulk of the moisture stays offshore. We'll have to keep an eye on it.

Blue Thunder · 03-09-2008, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rose

This storm was on the GFS on the 12Z run on Thursday (I think that was the run I was looking at). Looking at the 00Z GFS run this morning, it's still there, but the northern and southern streams don't phase, and the bulk of the moisture stays offshore. We'll have to keep an eye on it.

This is what I was trying to say up above...the GFS has been pretty good in the 7-10 day range. I expect it to drop off for a couple of days and then show up again. As you say Rose, it remains to be seen...

BT

hilltopper · 03-10-2008, 11:09 AM

Hey CLP, what is your current snowpack? Is it on your web site (couldn't find it)?

I'll have a measuring stick up for next year. Interested what the 1.5" or so of rain did to the depth.

CanisLupusArctos · 03-10-2008, 11:39 AM

The snow depth is in the 'comments' section of the WeatherCam site. It's at the bottom of the page along with the lake temp.

Right now it's 30 inches and it's SOLID on top. It supported me carrying a bin full of firewood yesterday. My foot went through the crust in only a couple of places... down about 12" before it met more solid stuff underneath.

The storm brought us 1.35 inches of rain, which I can tell is now frozen in the snowpack.

CLA

Blue Thunder · 03-10-2008, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hilltopper

Hey CLP, what is your current snowpack? Is it on your web site (couldn't find it)?

I'll have a measuring stick up for next year. Interested what the 1.5" or so of rain did to the depth.

Why do you call him CLP???

Gatto Nero · 03-10-2008, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

Why do you call him CLP???

I'm guessing he has him confused him with his Indian cousin, Canis Lupus Pallipes

hilltopper · 03-10-2008, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

Why do you call him CLP???

You know what, I honestly have no idea. My apologies, CLA!

Skip · 03-10-2008, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hilltopper

You know what, I honestly have no idea. My apologies, CLA!

Maybe you were confusing him with CanisLupusPredictos!

03-06-2008, 06:26 PM	#1
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Winter Storm Watch The National Weather Service in Gray ME has issued a winter storm watch for all of New Hampshire except the counties along the Massachusetts border. This watch is for Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. The winter storm watch is also in effect for all of Vermont except the MA border counties, and all of Maine except extreme coastal. The latest NWS forecast calls for 2-4 inches of snow in the lakes region followed by possibly damaging ice accumulations. Joe Cupo on WCSH-6 Portland (NBC) has just said he thinks the precipitation will start as rain and change to snow as cold air moves in from Canada during the day on Saturday. He said he expects mostly snow and sleet in the mountains, with gradually more rain mixing toward the coast, but all areas trend towards snow as the cold air moves in. Whatever falls as liquid will freeze on Monday as the cold air takes hold.

03-07-2008, 11:49 AM	#2
GWC... Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 1,325 Thanks: 5 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	This should prove interesting... __________________ [Assume funny, clever sig is here. Laugh and reflect... ]

03-07-2008, 05:09 PM	#3
Skip Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Dover, NH Posts: 1,615 Thanks: 256 Thanked 514 Times in 182 Posts	Closet weather junky.... Just a quick note to say thanks guys & gals! This has been one of the most interesting and informative threads I've had the privilege to visit this winter. I confess, I am a closet weather junky....and as tempted as I am to jump in to the conversation my expertise pales in comparison the CLP, R2B, and one of the rarer but in my top 10 favorite posters list - Rose! I hope you folks keep this thread alive, especially into the summer months, 'cause this is the kind of stuff that makes this website so unique!

03-07-2008, 05:12 PM	#4
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Flood Watch The National Weather Service in Gray Maine has issued a flood watch and a winter weather advisory for Belknap County, and a winter weather advisory for southern Carroll County. The winter weather advisory is for ice accumulations of .25" to .5" and the flood watch is for the possibility of 3 inches of rain falling on top of the existing snowpack. At this point they are only expecting small river and stream flooding, as the larger rivers still have a few more feet to rise before they'll overflow. The storm is becoming quite noteworthy throughout the eastern half of the nation. Blizzard warnings are now in effect for a large portion of Ohio. Winter storm warnings and snow advisories extend from western New York State southward to all but southernmost portions of Alabama and Mississippi, and the northeast corner of Louisiana. Snow is currently falling in northernmost Mississippi and is expected to expand in coverage. We are expected to receive the rainy eastern side of the storm as it tracks very close to the northwest of here. A shift in the storm track to the southeast by just 100 or 200 miles (very small, in the grand scheme of things) would result in our receiving several inches of snow. Otherwise, if the current forecast track verifies, we will receive a fair amount of icing and some very heavy rain. Attached Images

03-08-2008, 10:42 AM	#5
Rose Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 498 Thanks: 62 Thanked 71 Times in 32 Posts	Jump on in, Skip Thanks for the kind words and vote of confidence, Skip . It was a nice thing to read on a lousy Friday. All the credit goes to R2B and CLA for drawing me back to forecasting with their well-informed and thought out posts. You should really jump in any time into these threads. Making observations, asking questions....any input is great. Answering questions helps to reinforce and expand ones knowledge. And we know any questions or comments from you, Skip, are going to be of the highest quality.

03-08-2008, 06:07 PM	#6
Lakegeezer Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Moultonboro, NH Posts: 1,692 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 356 Thanked 646 Times in 294 Posts	Corning Rain The coming storm may help the flood situation in the long run. An inch or so of warm water will corn up the snow and melt through the ice. The thawed ground can then start soaking up the water. Maybe we'll dodge the flood bullet this year. __________________ -lg

03-08-2008, 07:28 PM	#7
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	I won't say it's not possible, LG. At this point I'll agree anything is possible. I have to eat some 'humble pie' as this storm passes: I had sided with cold air and more ice, and we've had almost no ice at all this time around. Temps in the low-30s, and plain rain, now approaching the 1-inch mark for storm total. Even Mount Washington is reporting plain rain and 32 degrees. The cold air has been just to our west. The western half of New York and Pennsylvania have been getting all snow from this, and temps have been running in the teens and low-20s all around Lakes Erie and Ontario. This cold air will be making its way in here tonight, and will be staying for a couple of days. As I write this, Kevin Mannix on Ch-6 Portland is talking about a repeat of this storm, a week from today. The load limit signs are now up, along Center Harbor and Moultonborough's highways. The signs remain covered for now, until the DOT determines they're needed.

03-10-2008, 11:09 AM	#10
hilltopper Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Meredith Posts: 730 Thanks: 25 Thanked 109 Times in 70 Posts	Hey CLP, what is your current snowpack? Is it on your web site (couldn't find it)? I'll have a measuring stick up for next year. Interested what the 1.5" or so of rain did to the depth.

03-10-2008, 11:39 AM	#11
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	snow depth The snow depth is in the 'comments' section of the WeatherCam site. It's at the bottom of the page along with the lake temp. Right now it's 30 inches and it's SOLID on top. It supported me carrying a bin full of firewood yesterday. My foot went through the crust in only a couple of places... down about 12" before it met more solid stuff underneath. The storm brought us 1.35 inches of rain, which I can tell is now frozen in the snowpack. CLA

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