Winni Weather - winter 2007

[SIKSUKR]

The intent of my post was not to discredit anyone posting here or any weather service.I'm just stating what I think is in fact the almost impossible task of estimating snowfall amounts in certain locations in NE days in advance.I still enjoy watching forecasting,if for nothing else to see how it turns out.As far as snowfall amounts in the Lakes region,I would love to see the 6 inches your forecasting but as I watch this morning,that looks unlikely.I hope I'm wrong.

[Resident 2B]

Although the models looked good for those of us who really like the snow, it is now a long shot, at best, for any moderate storm tomorrow. So, you do not need to spend any time today tuning up the snow blower.

The will be cold later this weekend and early next week. In addition, there is a lot of energy around and with the contrast in temperatures between the cold air and the relatively warm ocean, the area looks ripe for a storm. However, they just do not seem to be forming in an area that gives us the snow most of us want.

So the model driven forecast from earlier this week looks to be wrong, but there is potential for storms in the next 10 days, but nothing that can be specifically forecasted.

The weather news for the area will be the cold air for now.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by SIKSUKR

I'm just stating what I think is in fact the almost impossible task of estimating snowfall amounts in certain locations in NE days in advance.

How right you are! New England has the most unpredictable weather in the world. While most places get their weather from one or two directions all the time, we're a rare spot in the fact that THREE major storm tracks intersect here, and a fourth one sometimes jumps into the action when storms decide to "retrograde" -- back in off the ocean instead of moving out normally ("The Perfect Storm" of 1991 did that.) We can get air masses originating from the North Pole, the Gulf of Mexico, the US Continent, and the North Atlantic - all in one day.

For that reason there is a study called AIRMAP which is run by UNH and supported by NOAA which is attempting to measure New Engand's patterns for the purpose of making a New England weather model (and air quality.) There are several AIRMAP sites in a South-North line, ascending in elevation, and one of them is at Castle Springs in Moultonborough.

Even this model, however, will never be perfect. Aside from needing "The initial state of the earth's atmosphere", all models also would need to account for the very TINY details that make a huge imact on the weather - like farm fields creating less friction on a storm system than buildings. Even if they did program that info into the models, what would happen when developers bought the fields? Now the multi-trillion dollar super-high resolution weather model needs to be updated by local planning boards (maybe not literally, but you get the point.)

Speaking of models, the latest run seems to be trending tomorrow's snow farther offshore... *sob*

Well at least it still looks like record cold for next week to thicken the ice and help make more snow at the ski areas. R2B the nice thing about being primed for a storm like this is that sooner or later, something's gotta give! Or at least that's how I like to think.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

R2B the nice thing about being primed for a storm like this is that sooner or later, something's gotta give! Or at least that's how I like to think.

The gun is loaded and it is aimed. Mother Nature just does not want to pull the trigger, for some unknown reason.

You are correct! Sooner or later.......

Enjoy the cold and ice. It is much better than last year.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

While VERY far off, do keep your eyes on next Saturday - that appears to be our next chance of a snowstorm. The latest 10-day GFS takes a storm from the TX panhandle across the Gulf Coast in the latter half of next week, then to the mid-Atlantic coast (DelMarVa) where it becomes very Nor'Easter-looking.

The way this winter has been going I would not be surprised if this, too, got shunted out to sea by the very heavy dome of cold air that has been in residence over us since mid-January. At the same time, the model does show the storm bringing a moderation of the cold air toward the end of the week (moderation meaning "normal cold" in this case.) At this point we (including anti-snow people) definitely do NOT want to see any rain try to move in here. The ground has been chilled beyond belief and this kind of cold air will not leave the lowest altitudes quickly if pushed. We're primed for a huge ice storm if warm/rain does try to surge back in here at some point.

For today... all models coming into agreement that tomorrow's storm is heading out to sea. NGM (aka "No-Good Model") seems to be the only one left showing a closer-to-the-coast track but even that one isn't very close.

The headline now should be the possibility of record cold for the first half of the coming week. After a couple days of near-normal winter temps starting (now), the extreme cold comes roaring back in here Sunday PM to the tune of daytime highs in the + single numbers and overnight lows below zero.

I would guess that the ski areas will benefit with more natural snow as the cold front passes through, followed by NW winds creating the localized "upslope drafts" to fuel those flakes - and who knows - maybe Winnipesaukee will see another Lake Erie squall survive the long trip to give us 3 or 4 inches, which happened Jan 20.

[Gatto Nero]

My small contribution for the Winni weather thread. This from PunxsutawneyPhil.com

Phil's official forecast as read 2/2/07 at sunrise at Gobbler's Knob:

El Nino has caused high winds, heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures in the west.
Here in the East with much mild winter weather we have been blessed.

Global warming has caused a great debate.
This mild winter makes it seem just great.

On this Groundhog Day we think of one thing.
Will we have winter or will we have spring?

On Gobbler's Knob I see no shadow today.
I predict that early spring is on the way.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

I would guess that the ski areas will benefit with more natural snow as the cold front passes through, followed by NW winds creating the localized "upslope drafts" to fuel those flakes - and who knows - maybe Winnipesaukee will see another Lake Erie squall survive the long trip to give us 3 or 4 inches, which happened Jan 20.

At the risk of jinxing CLA's call, although it may not be coming directly from Lake Erie, the upslope action looks real for this evening and tonight, as does the 3" to 4" range. This is different snow than the snow I was predicting for Friday. Light, powdery 25:1 stuff that will look great blowing around on the lake after the front passes.

Tough luck with the Groundhog!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Happy Groundhog Day. Jeremy Reiner on WHDH-7 (Boston) just announced that the groundhog has about a 40% accuracy record, but I think Al Roker on NBC-Today said it best this morning: "They have 200 TV camera lights - how can they tell if he saw his shadow?"

Now to today's weather in the Lakes Region. Temps have risen to the upper 20s on Black Cat Island, with winds blowing from the SW (warm & more humid direction.) Skies are cloudy and snow appears on the radar over PA/NY state moving NEward. Based on radar & models I think it'll get here around 7 pm and begin accumulating almost as soon as it starts.

The models are showing an average of .25 inch (liquid equiv.) for the state, with lower amounts near the MA border and higher amounts for the mountains. Average liquid-to-snow ratio seems to be about 20:1 for the state with 25:1 possible (as R2B mentioned) and maybe 15:1 for the MA border. If I were to play it conservative I'd use the 20:1 ratio and guess .30" liquid equiv for the Lakes Region, which comes out to 6 inches snowfall.

We also might see some minor mountain enhancement, like we saw from the Squams/Belknaps/Ossipees on Jan 20 when an "inch or less" was predicted but we ended up with 4 inches (our biggest "storm" this season.) Another factor is that the ground is very cold from recent weather and I don't think any snowflakes will be wasted in "priming" it for accumulation.

An outlying possibility continues to be a lake-effect snow band from Upstate NY surviving the trip to NH. NWS-Burlington is talking about possible thundersnow with the upcoming lake-effect event, which means powerful snow squalls that would have the potential to make that trip and add an inch to what we're already getting.

With all that said, I wouldn't be surprised if we did end up with a few spot-totals of 7 inches tonight, although I have a hard time imagining it given the way this winter has been. I know I'm going out on a limb... However, the trend this morning has been for "upped" totals as this thing approaches, so I'll forecast 4 to 7 inches for the Lakes Region, with any 7-inch amounts (if they occur) near the mountains, and the 4-inches around Laconia.

After this thing passes the headline becomes BRRRRRR! Monday looks to be the coldest day of next week and perhaps of the winter - I'll go with +3 for a high (on Black Cat Island), and windy too.

The last cold blast on January 26 gave Black Cat a daytime high of +4 with a low of -5 and temperatures were below zero for all but 3 hours of that day... and this one looks about the same or slightly cooler.

If you're planning anything in the mountains Sun-Tues, now's a good time to re-think: The summits will likely not rise above -10, with the highest summits even colder, and NW winds of 75+ mph above treeline.

CLA

[SIKSUKR]

I'll go with maybe 3".

[Resident 2B]

This has just been posted.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
219 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...SNOW FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY...AND TRAVELING COULD
BECOME VERY DIFFICULT LATER THIS EVENING.

BY THE TIME TO SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER TONIGHT...A GENERAL 3 TO 6
INCH SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
MAY CAUSE THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TO BLOW BACK OVER TREATED ROADS.
IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BE READY FOR
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LEAVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.

MEZ012-018-019-NHZ004>006-009-010-030800-
/O.NEW.KGYX.SN.Y.0004.070203T0000Z-070203T0800Z/
SOUTHERN OXFORD-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUMFORD...NORWAY...SOUTH PARIS...
MEXICO...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...
NORTH CONWAY...CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...
WOLFEBORO...LACONIA...TILTON-NORTHFIELD...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...
DOVER...DURHAM
219 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL HEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE BETWEEN 500 PM AND 800 PM. THE SNOW
MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES BETWEEN 800 PM AND 100 AM. AT THIS TIME...
VISIBILITIES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY...AND
TRAVELING COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT LATER THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...THE SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER. WINDS PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT WILL CAUSE THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TO BLOW
AROUND.

EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE TIME THE SNOW
TAPERS OFF LATER TONIGHT. IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BE READY FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LEAVE
YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.

[CanisLupusArctos]

THE SNOW BEGINS...

Black Cat Island at 8:30 pm: Visibility is 1/4 mile in heavy snow, temp 26. Snow began just after 5:00 pm (earlier on the summits to the south of the lake, which went into the clouds around 4:00) and has accumulated 1.7 inches.

I just got back from Plymouth and the normally 25-minute ride took 50 minutes. Speeds on I-93 averaging 35 mph. **There were serious accidents occurring as I was driving - I witnessed a pickup truck off the road attended by Ashland FD, PD, and NHSP... also heard on the radio of others in the area, one in Laconia requiring jaws of life.

The National Weather Service has once again upped their predicted total for the Meredith area, for 3-7 inches.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Some folks may be traveling to see the long-awaited lake ice or to carve some freshies in the ski slopes tomorrow morning - Reports from around the area, anyone?

If you're new to this, feel free to share whatever weather info you have relevant to Winnipesaukee or the things we do here (like drive to the mountains to go skiing). Yes there are techies commenting here but you don't have to be one.

[Gatto Nero]

I just arrived from just south of the NH boarder after a 3 hour ride . It's just past midnight and I'd guess we have about 4" on the ground and still coming down lightly. With luck I'll be carving those freshies at 8:00 AM!

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

If you're new to this, feel free to share whatever weather info you have relevant to Winnipesaukee or the things we do here (like drive to the mountains to go skiing). Yes there are techies commenting here but you don't have to be one.

Ok... here is a slightly less scientific method. This is the KLBIFTBITF Gauge. (Kitty Litter Bucket I Forgot To Bring In This Fall Gauge)




I was going to use the PCTITB Gauge (Persian Cat Tossed Into The Backyard Gauge) But Yuki didn’t like the idea... at all!




Results – Here in Gilford Village.. Just over 5”

[Island Girl]

We got about 4-5 inches of fluffy stuff last night... it was just gorgeous out.

It is very windy this morning and the fluffy stuff is blowing around a bit..

Check out the ridge going from Rattlesnake to Diamond on the ice out page

www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm


Be careful out there today!!!

IG

[CanisLupusArctos]

Really good guess, GN. At midnight my measured amount was the same as your eye-estimate: 4.3 inches. It continued snowing for a total of 4.9". When I called it into the National Weather Service they said the snow accumulation was actually getting knocked down due to a local ocean fetch that brought some maritime warmth/moisture yesterday afternoon and turned the first few hours of the snow to the heavy wet stuff (we had wind from the SE for a while but as soon as it calmed down, the snow went back to fluffy.)

Speaking of "Fluffy"... I love that new Persian cat method of snow measurement! The facial expression is priceless! (Does anyone else smell a new "priceless" Mastercard commercial here? What would it sound like?)

Nice shots, IG. Ice rifts make such interesting subjects.

For Today... winds are now picking up (gusting to 17 already, from the NW) and temps have already reached their high for the day and are on the way down to stay for several days - currently 18. Get those dry oaks ready for the fireplace, and eat some forbidden calories to keep warm! Blowing and drifted snow will be an issue in open areas today. Per forecast discussion from NWS-Gray, the storm-related snows are now outta here but the "upslope machine" is just getting going in the mountains, with 3-6 inches expected (depending on local topography) today.

For those going skiing or out on the lake, let us know how it was!

[codeman671]

I spent the day out on the ice yesterday by airboat and noted a major ridge starting at Governers Island out through the edge of the Witches and over to Lockes Island. From Lockes Island to the other side of Glendale there was another. One smaller ridge closer to Round Island was no issue. There was a lot of thin ice and open water around the ridges so anyone attempting to cross by sled should be extremely careful.

Overall ice conditions seemed fair at best. In the broads I am guessing 5-6 inches judging from the cracks that we checked, although we did not carry an auger with us. Also, the dock circulators just down from Glendale are wreaking havoc on the ice near the jet ski launch so those getting on at that point should be wary.

In general, use caution- I do not think it is as safe as some might like to believe.

A few images from yesterday:

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Check out the ridge going from Rattlesnake to Diamond on the ice "out"(??) page

www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm


IG

What's the difference between a rift and a pressure ridge??

BT

[Island Girl]

They are one in the same!

[Grant]

Here are a few shots of a long ridge that ran (unfortunately) from our dock clear across to Black Island last winter. I say "unfortunately" because it seems that the ice action at this intersection, much like the movement of tectonic plates, was ultimately responsible for our major dock damage.

http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56052297

http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56053611

http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56052097

[CanisLupusArctos]

Aren't those also one in the same? Perhaps if there's enough ice on the mountain. Sounds like Attitash has gotten to that point - are you sure you weren't encountering pressure ridges on those slopes?

The ski reports are great!. It's good to know stuff like this so we won't waste our money or miss the best conditions of the year. As R2B said, sometimes its a world of difference between what "they" tell you and what their mountain actually has on it.


Today on assigment I went to a reunion dinner for Laconia High School's champion ski team of the 1950s. They had done some skiing at Gunstock today and said it was great.

According to the National Weather Service's tally of snowfall totals, Franconia Notch scored the jackpot of 7.5 inches (shared with Lost River.) Crawford Notch took home the silver, with 7.0. There were a few 6-inch amounts scattered around central NH but looks like 5 inches was a pretty common amount around the lake.

Here are a couple more pics from today. The expression on that persian cat still cracks me up!

[SteveA]

This is from todays Citizen. Interesting article on the effects of a warming climate on the local wildlife.

http://www.citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll...136/-1/CITIZEN

[Lakegeezer]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

Some folks may be traveling to see the long-awaited lake ice or to carve some freshies in the ski slopes tomorrow morning - Reports from around the area, anyone?

If you're new to this, feel free to share whatever weather info you have relevant to Winnipesaukee or the things we do here (like drive to the mountains to go skiing). Yes there are techies commenting here but you don't have to be one.

We left at 6AM and got first run freshies in 4" of powdah at Attitash, but that mountain is in poor shape. A lot of trails are not open and under the powder, its bulletproof ice. Some trails have snowmaking ice whales - which wrecks the trail. The groomers just haven't done a good job. For another 40 minutes of driving, you can be at Sunday River - we went there last week and it was almost 100% open and had great conditions. Someone on the lift told us Attitash may be sold off later this year. From the lack of investments being made in blowing snow and grooming, it seems they are saving money for something.

[Resident 2B]

LG,

Thanks for the real story!

It is amazing the difference you get from real people compared to the reports the ski resorts email you.

I recieve the Attitash Winter Email on February 1st and this is copied from it:

The ATP Fly Zone is under construction, snowmaking continues to rage around the clock, snow is in the forecast and our exceptional fleet of groomers continue to lay down the best terrain possible each day. For the weekend we expect to have 41 trails including our new additions Wandering Skis, Inside Out, upper Myth Maker & upper Grand Stand....

It is great to get first hand information from someone who was there. My opinion is that until we get a real storm, the only effect from snowmaking and small storms is that it hides the ice for a few hours.

Thanks again,

R2B

[Gatto Nero]

Waterville was great. Hit the slopes at 8:00 for fresh tracks in 4" to 5". Didn't start getting skied off until about 11:00. By 1:30 it was 60% ice and about 40% fluffy mogles. I've been riding all winter but this was the first day my legs gave out before I got frustrated with the ice. Great day to be alive.