Official 2019-2020 Ice In Thread

[Barney Bear]

Very nice view. When enlarged, the Adirondack lean-tos at the Outpost, and snow-covered Indian Head Rock are visible at the southern end of Camp Lawrence. 🐻

[Mink Islander]

That’s right. My wife’s family has a place on Bear Island, also with views of Mount Washington and a more distant view of Camp Nokomis!

The area out in front of the Indian Head Rock is a popular ice fishing spot.

A bald eagle was also flying around out in front of Mink today. Last winter several were congregating on the southern tip of Bear. Becoming a common sight, thankfully.

Fingers crossed that after the coming warm up that we’ll get back to sustained cold for ice making!

[dickiej]

When is ice in official? What constitutes ice in?

[Hillcountry]

Originally Posted by dickiej

When is ice in official? What constitutes ice in?

I believe it’s a “fly over” by the aviation guy that declares both ice in and out.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by dickiej

When is ice in official? What constitutes ice in?

It is Emerson Aviation that surveys the lake and confirms the Mount Washington cannot safely navigate to any of its ports.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[webmaster]

Originally Posted by dickiej

When is ice in official? What constitutes ice in?

There hasn't been an official ice-in in past years. Last year Emerson Aviation did declare ice-in but that's the first time I recall them doing that.

Declaring ice-in is kind of tricky. Areas could skim over which would block the Mount but then strong winds could break it up the next day. That happened last week when the area off of Weirs Beach skimmed over, blocking the Mount, then cleared the next day in strong winds. That wouldn't normally happen with ice-out. Once the lake clears enough for the Mount to reach all it's ports it is very unlikely that the lake would freeze over again.

Another thing that makes ice-in different is that for ice-out the Mount must be able to reach ALL its ports. For ice-in only one of its ports would need to be blocked.

If Emerson Aviation does declare ice-in this year it will be posted here:

https://www.facebook.com/Emerson-Avi...31847876851023

[Mink Islander]

North side of Mink held up despite the wind last night, which is good. Need to get past the coming warm snap and hope for more cold weather to get us to safe ice!

[ishoot308]

West side of Welch as of a few minutes ago...

https://video.nest.com/clip/1ae642f6...74474b1eb8.mp4

Looks like the wind took out what little ice had formed. With this weeks temps into the 50's not looking too promising...

Dan

[Hillcountry]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

West side of Welch as of a few minutes ago...

https://video.nest.com/clip/1ae642f6...74474b1eb8.mp4

Looks like the wind took out what little ice had formed. With this weeks temps into the 50's not looking too promising...

Dan

Dan, in your island experience, how does the condition of the lake right now bode for an eventual freeze-up/ice in? I know coves and bays will catch but will the open areas (as in your cam shot) likely freeze enough to allow safe travel?

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Hillcountry

Dan, in your island experience, how does the condition of the lake right now bode for an eventual freeze-up/ice in? I know coves and bays will catch but will the open areas (as in your cam shot) likely freeze enough to allow safe travel?

Hi Hill;

I would say 8 out of the last 10 years the area around Welch froze completely over to safely reach my camp. Some years there has been 20+ inches of ice.

The last place to freeze on the entire lake is always the area known as the "alien hot tub". This is a large oblong area in the middle between Welch and Ellacoya State Park. Rumor has it that many years ago an unidentified flying object crashed there causing this delayed freeze effect to this day! I can see this area from my home on the mainland in Gilford so I monitor it well. One year Emerson declared ice in when there was still about 6 football fields of open water there!!

Now to answer your question!...I think the freeze is definitely behind but I do think the lake will freeze over completely this year. The nights have been cold and more cold coming next week. We just need that initial skim of ice to keep the wind from affecting the freeze. Once that happens, ice will form quickly usually at a rate of 1" per day minimum. Calm and cold is the key!

Here's a few clips from years past from the same camera as in my above post and within the same time frame + or - a couple days. This will give you an idea where we are at...

January 11th 2019: https://video.nest.com/clip/e9247dc8...901859eec3.mp4

January 13th 2017: https://video.nest.com/clip/0254f547...2812f4ad36.mp4

January 7th 2016: https://video.nest.com/clip/5ae083a7...4622d47342.mp4

Take care!

Dan

[Blue Thunder]

Progress in the coves and Alton Bay...

[ishoot308]

Top,

Here’s a couple from 2016.... That’s Welch in the lower picture...

Dan

[Descant]

Excerpt:

Originally Posted by ishoot308

The last place to freeze on the entire lake is always the area known as the "alien hot tub". This is a large oblong area in the middle between Welch and Ellacoya State Park. Rumor has it that many years ago an unidentified flying object crashed there causing this delayed freeze effect to this day! I can see this area from my home on the mainland in Gilford so I monitor it well. One year Emerson declared ice in when there was still about 6 football fields of open water there!!...Dan

The US Navy Research station on Diamond Island was supposedly to do research under ice in preparation for the Nautilus' trip under the polar ice-cap, and to study underwater light transmission (Laser?) Apparently, that was just a cover story. In four generations on Welch, I have never seen algae blooms or milfoil in this area.

[Barney Bear]

Just saw two people walking on the ice near what appears to be open water on the Center Harbor web cam. Scary! 🐻

[AC2717]

looks like the ice is making a comeback!!!!

[DickR]

Late this afternoon, the dog and I saw what appear to be two ice shacks out on the ice in the Long Island-Sandy Isl - Cow Isl triangle.

[Andromeda321]

Originally Posted by Descant

Excerpt:

The US Navy Research station on Diamond Island was supposedly to do research under ice in preparation for the Nautilus' trip under the polar ice-cap, and to study underwater light transmission (Laser?) Apparently, that was just a cover story. In four generations on Welch, I have never seen algae blooms or milfoil in this area.

To be fair, if the water is moving in some fashion in that spot to prevent ice from freezing, you wouldn't get much algae or milfoil compared to other areas that freeze over faster where the water is more calm.

[ishoot308]

No progress as of yet with ice in...

https://video.nest.com/clip/1f92878b...c271fa7a4f.mp4

Hopefully with the upcoming cold temps starting Friday night we will some progress!

Dan

[AC2717]

I cannot believe there is no Cam in Meredith, that is crackers

[PCTim]

Originally Posted by AC2717

I cannot believe there is no Cam in Meredith, that is crackers

There is one at Lago, but the only ones I see using it are WCVB and WMUR

[ishoot308]

These brutal winds with gusts over 30 mph will just not allow the lake to freeze no matter how cold it gets! The wind continues till Tuesday!

https://video.nest.com/clip/323e2f37...3b2c5a0cd2.mp4

Dan

[Blue Thunder]

Today’s MODIS shot. Very few times during the year that it’s this crystal clear...

[ishoot308]

There is some ice forming across the broads this morning! It’s calm right now and the slightest wind will certainly blow it all away bit if it would just ice over fully before the wind starts it would be in good shape!...We shall see!!

Dan

[Mink Islander]

Time will tell.

[trashman]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

No progress as of yet with ice in...

https://video.nest.com/clip/1f92878b...c271fa7a4f.mp4

Hopefully with the upcoming cold temps starting Friday night we will some progress!

Dan

Actually, better yet, Wednesday overnight will be below freezing and then some real cold from there. Any chance the Pond Hockey happens in Meredith Bay?? Or at this point are we crossing our fingers for even Waukewan to be able to have it????

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by trashman

Actually, better yet, Wednesday overnight will be below freezing and then some real cold from there. Any chance the Pond Hockey happens in Meredith Bay?? Or at this point are we crossing our fingers for even Waukewan to be able to have it????

My personal opinion is Meredith Bay will be fine for the hockey tournament...

Dan

[Hillcountry]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

My personal opinion is Meredith Bay will be fine for the hockey tournament...

Dan

I think you're right on Dan...however, at this late date, I don't think the lake will "ice in" this season...not fully, anyway.

[AC2717]

only issue with the ice for meredith bay is they need enough time to set up, flood and smooth, need at least a week. So at some point they will have to make the call

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Hillcountry

I think you're right on Dan...however, at this late date, I don't think the lake will "ice in" this season...not fully, anyway.

There's still time Hill...cold weather starting tomorrow night and continuing on at least for the next 7 days or so according to the weather channel. Unfortunately it looks pretty windy starting tomorrow until next Tuesday which will certainly stop any ice from forming.... If we don't see some serious progress by next weekend January 25th, I would agree with you...

Dan

[Descant]

Originally Posted by Andromeda321

To be fair, if the water is moving in some fashion in that spot to prevent ice from freezing, you wouldn't get much algae or milfoil compared to other areas that freeze over faster where the water is more calm.

The reference to algae and milfoil was a total non sequitur.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

West side of Welch as of a few minutes ago...

https://video.nest.com/clip/1ae642f6...74474b1eb8.mp4

Looks like the wind took out what little ice had formed. With this weeks temps into the 50's not looking too promising...

Dan

Looking at the forecast that warmup will be a 24-48 hour thing and temps are still going to get below freezing at night (barely) so hopefully that won't do a whole lot to the progress that has been made. We'll see wishful thinking?