"Official" Ice Out Thread

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

Good work!

That graph is very telling. It especially shows the change in the last 40 years. My anecdotal perceptions were wrong.

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Good work!

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

*Steps in, looking for discussion about ice out and climate change, finds DEJ posting more requests to separate off-topic posts than actual off-topic posts, steps out...after wondering for a moment whether or not someone will actually count the number of DEJ requests or will recognize hyperbole*

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^

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[Garcia]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

Thanks! The graph supports my less than scientific memory of the ice going out in late April when I was a child. Now I plan to have the dock in and camp open in mid April (certainly by the third week or so). A year like this year seems late - then again, maybe I’m just less patient as I get older!

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

^

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[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by DEJ

You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.

Cry me a river. Please read post #186.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by DEJ

Cry me a river. Please read post #186.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Good one,

[MAXUM]

Couldn't resist!

[bilproject]

Still Ice around the mount in Center Harbor. Looks like tomorrow morning for Ice out. Had the 24th in the ice out contest some year. Does that count?

[trfour]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

As the ice softens through the processes of melting and sublimation, it becomes slush, which is ice saturated with water, and along the cycle back to all water, it becomes a little heavier than water, and will slowly sink.

It's Okay fll, all O them loose screws in my brain cavity get lonesome on occasion Too...

[webmaster]

In case anyone missed it here is why there was no Ice-Out yesterday. It should happen this morning. (photo by Emerson Aviation)

[jeffk]

Originally Posted by webmaster

In case anyone missed it here is why there was no Ice-Out yesterday. It should happen this morning. (photo by Emerson Aviation)

It's comedic that all the ice is gathered around the Mount in Center Harbor. I can almost imagine a bunch of boats the previous night gathering all the remaining pieces of ice from around the lake and pushing them into place for this picture.

[webmaster]

It's official! Ice-Out declared 4/24/19 at 5:24 am.

[tis]

Originally Posted by jeffk

It's comedic that all the ice is gathered around the Mount in Center Harbor. I can almost imagine a bunch of boats the previous night gathering all the remaining pieces of ice from around the lake and pushing them into place for this picture.

It is! Years ago that ice would not have impeded ice out from being declared.

[pondguy]

Beware of sunken ice in Center Harbor bay.

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you

[Pricestavern]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

[luckypete]

Missed it by 37 hours and 9 minutes! HA

[webmaster]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting.

Also, different methods of determining Ice-Out have been used over the years since 1887.

[fatlazyless]

Originally Posted by pondguy

Beware of sunken ice in Center Harbor bay.

Each and every year, it's the same ice out there, on top of the lake. What happens is that ice sinks down to the bottom in April, and then the same ice re-surfaces back up in January.

Is the cycle of ice ...... been going on around here since 1621.

[Barney Bear]

Perhaps the ice was gone before midnight on the 23rd (which was this old moth-eaten bear's guess). 🐻

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Each and every year, it's the same ice out there, on top of the lake. What happens is that ice sinks down to the bottom in April, and then the same ice re-surfaces back up in January.

Is the cycle of ice ...... been going on around here since 1621.

So... the Pilgrims had something to do with the "cycle of ice"?

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Each and every year, it's the same ice out there, on top of the lake. What happens is that ice sinks down to the bottom in April, and then the same ice re-surfaces back up in January.

Is the cycle of ice ...... been going on around here since 1621.

Is that a noodle assisted resurfacing?

[steve-on-mark]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

So... the Pilgrims had something to do with the "cycle of ice"?

Of course....they really wanted to take the Mayflower to Endicott Rock, not Plymouth Rock. They couldn't....iced in...

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[tis]

Originally Posted by webmaster

Also, different methods of determining Ice-Out have been used over the years since 1887.

That is SO true. Therefore the dates could vary easily!

[fatlazyless]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

So... the Pilgrims had something to do with the "cycle of ice"?

Why yes, they did, not in an historical sense, but in a chronological sense. Prior to that winter back in 1621, there was no records kept, but starting on Feb 1, 1621, thy Pilgrims established an ice out cash lottery known as the Ice Cycle Lottery which quickly became known as the cash icicle.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by Barney Bear

Perhaps the ice was gone before midnight on the 23rd (which was this old moth-eaten bear's guess). 🐻

There used to be a raft in Weirs Bay with a flagpole that fell when the ice could not support it. That triggered a clock and an "after dark" ice out was possible. Now that we use a visual inspection, I don't think an after dark guess will win.

For the climate changers: 131 years ago there were no dock bubblers. 75 years ago, there were no dock bubblers. 50 years ago, only a few. Now, in some areas, you can't walk from shore to solid ice. Even islanders are using bubblers where not so long ago there was no electricity. Do such things affect the waters/ice? Perhaps not individually, but combined with other human activity...

[8gv]

Ice out has been declared but at the wrong date and time.

It should have been declared at 3pm on Monday as all the polls indicated it would.

I demand a recount, investigation and a do over!!!

[C-Bass]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by C-Bass

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

I haven't heard of anyone putting "heaters" in the lake to keep ice away? Circulators/bubblers of course, but don't think anyone is trying to heat the lake water to keep ice away.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by C-Bass

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

The amount of bubblers on the lake is extremely insignificant to the surface area of the lake as a whole and would have absolutely no effect on ice out. Remember ice out is determined by the Mounts ability to travel to its ports safely and completely reliable of the broads have no ice. Last I checked there are no bubblers in the broads and many other large open areas of water. lol

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by joey2665

The amount of bubblers on the lake is extremely insignificant to the surface area of the lake as a whole and would have absolutely no effect on ice out. Remember ice out is determined by the Mounts ability to travel to its ports safely and completely reliable of the broads have no ice. Last I checked there are no bubblers in the broads and many other large open areas of water. lol

Often times circulators are tied to thermostats and timers as well. Ours don't run unless the air temp is under 32 degrees, and only run for a set time per day if consistently under that. Ours have not run for quite a while because of temps, so it is doubtful that they would have an effect on the overall lake melt.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by codeman671

Often times circulators are tied to thermostats and timers as well. Ours don't run unless the air temp is under 32 degrees, and only run for a set time per day if consistently under that. Ours have not run for quite a while because of temps, so it is doubtful that they would have an effect on the overall lake melt.

I absolutely agree. I hope the OP was joking.