"Official" Ice Out Thread

[joey2665]

Had me also. Article is is available online?


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[Cobalt 25]

Yes, I would like to see the source of the information from 1922.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Cobalt 25

Yes, I would like to see the source of the information from 1922.

It’s says Consulate of Bergen, Norway and printed in the Washington Post November 2, 1922


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[Merrymeeting]

Originally Posted by joey2665

It’s says Consulate of Bergen, Norway and printed in the Washington Post November 2, 1922


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Yes, but the question is, was it? Until someone can post a link to the actual article, it isn't fact.

[MAXUM]

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/warm-welcome/

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpr..._wx_review.png

[8gv]

So we are still on track for 4/22 at 3pm then.

I shall prepare my acceptance speech.

[steve-on-mark]

Originally Posted by 8gv

So we are still on track for 4/22 at 3pm then.

I shall prepare my acceptance speech.

I predicted an earlier ice out this year...so much for that. All I can hope for now is to win the Two Barns " name the beer" contest...bottoms up!

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[Lakegirl24]

I’ve been saying the 22nd all along! I’ll be SO EXCITED if I’m right this year! I don’t know about all of you but I’m ready to get back out on the lake!!!!

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by 8gv

So we are still on track for 4/22 at 3pm then.

I shall prepare my acceptance speech.

That would be to controversial.

[FlyingScot]

It's kind of silly to suggest that because somebody may have been wrong a hundred years ago that the entire scientific community is wrong today. And it's ironic to use a fact check site that may show one article in favor of climate change denial when that same site likely shows about a thousand (a million?) other references that support climate change

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.

Your presumptions could not be more incorrect. And I assume you know what is often said about people who assume things. The article was emailed to me by a friend. I laughed when I read it because of the last sentence and I shared it because I though other people would too. It's that simple.

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

It's kind of silly to suggest that because somebody may have been wrong a hundred years ago that the entire scientific community is wrong today. And it's ironic to use a fact check site that may show one article in favor of climate change denial when that same site likely shows about a thousand (a million?) other references that support climate change

I am not sure when you had the time to interview "the entire scientific community" but you must have missed a few scientists. I can assure you that there are plenty of scientists that disagree with a lot of the global warming or climate change (or whatever they call it this week) theories.

I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true.

From another source:

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists.

The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times."


So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them.

In life, and in politics, that can often work against you.

And then there is this:

31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot)

[8gv]

Yeah but...

Did Emerson get the plane out of the hangar yet?

I have been running the fog machine all night...

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Your presumptions could not be more incorrect. And I assume you know what is often said about people who assume things. The article was emailed to me by a friend. I laughed when I read it because of the last sentence and I shared it because I though other people would too. It's that simple.



I am not sure when you had the time to interview "the entire scientific community" but you must have missed a few scientists. I can assure you that there are plenty of scientists that disagree with a lot of the global warming or climate change (or whatever they call it this week) theories.

I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true.

From another source:

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists.

The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times."


So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them.

In life, and in politics, that can often work against you.

And then there is this:

31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot)

It's incredible how people can get sucked into internet fakes. That "Petition" has been circulated for more that twenty years. Snopes declare it to be false. Included as signatories are the Spice Girls band and most of the character in Star Wars. And the funding originated with the oil industry.

It only takes a few seconds to check out things on Snopes BEFORE you post.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

It's incredible how people can get sucked into internet fakes. That "Petition" has been circulated for more that twenty years. Snopes declare it to be false. Included as signatories are the Spice Girls band and most of the character in Star Wars. And the funding originated with the oil industry.

It only takes a few seconds to check out things on Snopes BEFORE you post.

This is a thread about ice conditions on the lake, please stay on topic or start another thread.

[Mink Islander]

You gotta complaint about what’s happening on a particular thread, I suggest you relay your concern to the moderator rather than playing net nanny for the rest of us. He’s actually does quite a good job if you let him.

Just sayin’.

Oh, and I know, I’m contributing by bitching about the people who are bitching! LOL.

[JasJackson]

Center Harbor is clearing quite nicely from the pics Emerson posted on FB 4 hours ago. 2 views by Long Island Bridge near Trexlers.

[JasJackson]

Top: a view looking NW towards Center Harbor. Bottom: a view looking SE into Moultonborough Bay

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by DEJ

This is a thread about ice conditions on the lake, please stay on topic or start another thread.

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

[LIforrelaxin]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

I agree .....

However your stance of ice out getting later over time, indicates not necessarily global warming, but rather a shift in the timing of the season, in our "calendar year"..... These things can be shown or not scientifically, however screaming global warming has a much better chaotic effect to it.

I am not saying that global warming isn't a real thing.... but I also believe with more study we might find some additional shifts and re-alignments going on, as mother natures determines and figures out how to deal with the biggest environmental challenge on earth "MAN"

Yep I just went there............

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by LIforrelaxin

I agree .....

However your stance of ice out getting later over time, indicates not necessarily global warming, but rather a shift in the timing of the season, in our "calendar year"..... These things can be shown or not scientifically, however screaming global warming has a much better chaotic effect to it.

I am not saying that global warming isn't a real thing.... but I also believe with more study we might find some additional shifts and re-alignments going on, as mother natures determines and figures out how to deal with the biggest environmental challenge on earth "MAN"

Yep I just went there............

PLEASE start another thread if you want to continue to discuss global warming. Thanks.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

PLEASE start another thread if you wish to discuss global warming, thank you.

[webmaster]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

The problem is that this thread is for Ice-Out updates. If you want to start another thread about Climate Change and the lake you are welcome to do so but this thread should be about the status of the lake ice during this period.

For those interested in that other topic check the data on our Ice-Out page that shows the Ice-Out dates for the last 130 or so years.

[JasJackson]

With the latest view from Center Harbor Inn, it looks as though the Mount Washington can leave her winter port and head back to The Weirs...

https://centerharborinn.com/winnipesaukee-webcam/

Ice out 4/23/19 @ 6:10a? Wakey wakey eggs ‘n bakey Emerson Aviation!

[ericnh]

Originally Posted by JasJackson

With the latest view from Center Harbor Inn, it looks as though the Mount Washington can leave her winter port and head back to The Weirs...

https://centerharborinn.com/winnipesaukee-webcam/

Ice out 4/23/19 @ 6:10a? Wakey wakey eggs ‘n bakey Emerson Aviation!

Drove through Center Harbor on Monday afternoon and still has plenty of ice.

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by webmaster

The problem is that this thread is for Ice-Out updates. If you want to start another thread about Climate Change and the lake you are welcome to do so but this thread should be about the status of the lake ice during this period.

For those interested in that other topic check the data on our Ice-Out page that shows the Ice-Out dates for the last 130 or so years.

Right on. BTW, a cursory review of ice out dates suggests the median to be right about now, maybe a day later or so.

[ApS]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake? I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

Yeah! Where was Emerson Aviation in 1887?

Oh wait: Emerson Aviation has just made an announcement—which I quote:

"Covfefe"

[Fever29]

Emerson just posted an update... looks like ice out could be this afternoon!

"Closing in on ice out. As of 11:00 Center Harbor is holding on but just barely."

[pondguy]

Originally Posted by Fever29

Emerson just posted an update... looks like ice out could be this afternoon!

"Closing in on ice out. As of 11:00 Center Harbor is holding on but just barely."

It could sink any minute now !

[MDoug]

NHEC crew got to Bear when ice cleared enough and restored power just now.

[nj2nh]

Originally Posted by pondguy

It could sink any minute now !

I read an article recently that sinking ice is a myth. It cannot and does not sink. Always thought it did, too.


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[Fever29]

So close!!

[Barney Bear]

Missed my guess of 1:23 PM. this afternoon. Maybe next year. 🐻

[webmaster]

It's official! Ice-Out declared 4/24/19 at 5:24 am.

[nj2nh]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

Earliest ice out ever was in 2016. So much for it getting later.


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[Biggd]

Originally Posted by nj2nh

Earliest ice out ever was in 2016. So much for it getting later.


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That was a strange winter. I remember walking around Meredith at Christmas time in a T-shirt.

[Pricestavern]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

[MAXUM]

See there you go, proof that ice sinks faster today than it did in the late 1800's.

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

Good work!

That graph is very telling. It especially shows the change in the last 40 years. My anecdotal perceptions were wrong.

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Good work!

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by DEJ

You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.

Cry me a river. Please read post #186.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by DEJ

Cry me a river. Please read post #186.

[DEJ]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Good one,

[luckypete]

Missed it by 37 hours and 9 minutes! HA

[Garcia]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

Thanks! The graph supports my less than scientific memory of the ice going out in late April when I was a child. Now I plan to have the dock in and camp open in mid April (certainly by the third week or so). A year like this year seems late - then again, maybe I’m just less patient as I get older!

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you

[Pricestavern]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

[C-Bass]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by C-Bass

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

I haven't heard of anyone putting "heaters" in the lake to keep ice away? Circulators/bubblers of course, but don't think anyone is trying to heat the lake water to keep ice away.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by C-Bass

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

The amount of bubblers on the lake is extremely insignificant to the surface area of the lake as a whole and would have absolutely no effect on ice out. Remember ice out is determined by the Mounts ability to travel to its ports safely and completely reliable of the broads have no ice. Last I checked there are no bubblers in the broads and many other large open areas of water. lol

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by joey2665

The amount of bubblers on the lake is extremely insignificant to the surface area of the lake as a whole and would have absolutely no effect on ice out. Remember ice out is determined by the Mounts ability to travel to its ports safely and completely reliable of the broads have no ice. Last I checked there are no bubblers in the broads and many other large open areas of water. lol

Often times circulators are tied to thermostats and timers as well. Ours don't run unless the air temp is under 32 degrees, and only run for a set time per day if consistently under that. Ours have not run for quite a while because of temps, so it is doubtful that they would have an effect on the overall lake melt.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by codeman671

Often times circulators are tied to thermostats and timers as well. Ours don't run unless the air temp is under 32 degrees, and only run for a set time per day if consistently under that. Ours have not run for quite a while because of temps, so it is doubtful that they would have an effect on the overall lake melt.

I absolutely agree. I hope the OP was joking.

[webmaster]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting.

Also, different methods of determining Ice-Out have been used over the years since 1887.

[tis]

Originally Posted by webmaster

Also, different methods of determining Ice-Out have been used over the years since 1887.

That is SO true. Therefore the dates could vary easily!

[Garcia]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Your presumptions could not be more incorrect. And I assume you know what is often said about people who assume things. The article was emailed to me by a friend. I laughed when I read it because of the last sentence and I shared it because I though other people would too. It's that simple.



I am not sure when you had the time to interview "the entire scientific community" but you must have missed a few scientists. I can assure you that there are plenty of scientists that disagree with a lot of the global warming or climate change (or whatever they call it this week) theories.

I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true.

From another source:

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists.

The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times."


So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them.

In life, and in politics, that can often work against you.

And then there is this:

31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot)

Here's a link to the Snopes article: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/30...limate-change/

The beauty of the information age - one can always find something to support a position!

An entertaining distraction while I wait for the ice to go out...

[ApS]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

It's kind of silly to suggest that because somebody may have been wrong a hundred years ago that the entire scientific community is wrong today. And it's ironic to use a fact check site that may show one article in favor of climate change denial when that same site likely shows about a thousand (a million?) other references that support climate change

When politics (and money) is involved?

[webmaster]

Just posted by Emerson Aviation:

Center Harbor Bay and beyond. The Northern sections of the Lake is still encased in ice. This was from last night before sunset. We'll be back up later this morning. Probably a couple more days.

[Slickcraft]

I am surprised at that so long after mid lake being clear of ice.

In the mean time we got the water in on Welch yesterday and were rewarded with a pretty nice sunset.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by webmaster

Just posted by Emerson Aviation:

I guess the wind blew all the ice into Center Harbor

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

Yes, but the question is, was it? Until someone can post a link to the actual article, it isn't fact.

You have got to be kidding !!! They gave publication date and source. Just look it up if you doubt it.

It wasn’t some meme picture someone posted

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[Rusty]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

Yes, but the question is, was it? Until someone can post a link to the actual article, it isn't fact.

The link to the article was already posted but I thought I would post it without having to go to the link.

[chaseisland]

Ice out was just declared in my vodka on the rocks, Woe is me!