Official Ice Out 2011 Reports

[Merrymeeting]

The difference in the past 24 hours is dramatic. Looking at the webcams, dark areas and open water showing up everywhere, and in places that didn't even show a hint 2 days ago. Large "steam" plumes showing on Wolfeboro and other cams.

Seems someone hit the fast forward button! (though won't help me...my April 8th guess is already done)

[MAXUM]

Tough to get terribly excited about the upcoming season when you look at the gas prices. Ugh! It's going to hurt this year no doubt about it. Little more sittin' at anchor and a little less cruising around. I may have to cut back a little bit on my salmon fishing too.

[lawn psycho]

Maxum, no doubt that it will impact the boating community. This is where trailer boaters have the advantage as at least they can fill up at the road stations.

I can't even imagine paying for gas for the larger cruisers out on the water.

Unfortunately the US is quickly becoming less of a financial force as the Chinese economic consumption approaches ours. This is simply the beginning as the next couple decades we're going to see major changes in economies across the globe. Even little places like the Lakes Region are impacted by global events.

With the supply/demand equation so out of whack, I don't know what to predict with fuel prices anymore. This year's fuel price run-up was predicted last Fall by many economics and energy traders. I don't understand the energy markets but when you can predict these things it always makes me suspicious of how speculators are driving the price. Our supplies seem to reflect gas is over-priced but they're now saying gas is headed for over $4 "easily".

[PaulT]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

This year's fuel price run-up was predicted last Fall by many economics and energy traders.

It's the futures traders that have driving oil up over $111/bbl unfortunately.

Despite the unrest in the middle east and Africa, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations upped production to make up for any lost in the troubled areas.
Lybia's oil didn't even come to the US.

Traders are just using this as their excuse to force prices higher.
Can't even blame Exxon/Mobil or BP for the rise.


That said, the 12' aluminum V-hull I bought my wife for her birthday last year only used about 8-9 gallons all summer, and we fished a ton!

[Rattlesnake Guy]

Originally Posted by PaulT

It's the futures traders that have driving oil up over $111/bbl unfortunately.

With all due respect, your statement identifies that you don't understand how the futures markets work. For every buyer of a future, there is a seller. When your mother pre buys her oil for next year, she is a speculator. She is not doing it because she thinks the price is going to go down, she is willing to risk a higher price to offset the risk of an even higher price. The futures markets are a free market way of people to shed and assume risk. Some people use it as a casino as well. The vast majority of them loose money doing it.

As a private citizen you are equally free to sell a future to "drive the price down". Then buy it when the price is lower. Every dollar made by one is lost by another.

[nhd]

From my vantage point in Alton looking over the lake it got very gray in spots overnight, especially between Rattlesnake and Alton Bay. With this wind there might be some open water today. Up towards Meredith and Center Harbor it still looks white. I will try to get a picture tomorrow and post it but no time today.

[Island Girl]

The temperature of the lake reported by the dam operators is up to 38 degrees. Last year we had ice out at 39 degrees. (though it was 39 degrees for many days before the ice went out.)

Lily Pond was mostly iced is except for a bit at the edges on Saturday. If anyone goes by could let us know if the ice is out.

IG

[DRH]

Yesterday's rain, fog and mild temps really affected the ice. I took this picture from the Scenic View on Rt. 11 in Alton around noon today, looking toward Wolfeboro:

[Merrymeeting]

I checked the 2' water temperature on the WeatherCenter Cam page early this morning. It was still just under 37 degrees.

Right now it's reading 39.7! I'm not sure if it actually rose that fast, or if it just hadn't been updating for awhile.

In any case, if the reading is true, it's at the seemingly magic 40 degrees when ice-out happens quickly. The Water Temp page on this site shows the Lakeport Dam at 38 as of today.

On Sunday when I was there, there was almost no open water on the shoreline of Merrymeeting. Now you can see it is at least 20' out. http://65.175.138.198/view/view.shtml

[codeman671]

I just got back from an airboat ride to Mark from Cattle Landing. It is open all the way across to Bear (small strip approaching Bear). There is 5" of wet, broken ice between Cattle and Mark. The airboat was having a tough time getting on top of it without breaking through. Coming across from Glendale the ice is strong enough to hold the boat I am told. I took a few cell phone pictures that I will upload later tonight.

Gilford Yacht Club is ice-free to the end of the outer dock and Smith Cove is going quickly. In Alton the ice is past the pavilion. Everywhere you look it is very porous and dark with lots of cracks.

[Lakesrider]

The docks are free at 19 mile bay. It is open about 50 yards out. 20 Mile Bay is just starting to get some open water near RT109. Ice is looking very Gray now......

[fpartri497]

the docks at WAM are mostly Ice free now and the channel looks wide open. there Is some Ice floating around the middle of the docks. I would think It will be totally Ice free by the end of the week.

[Slickcraft]

From the Ames Farm area the ice is very dark and broken into many medium size sheets. A good wind would start to break this up.

Looking from Belknap Point today toward Welch and Round the gaps are fewer and the ice is not as dark, this will take a little longer.

[Steveo]

Photos, we want PHOTOS!!!!

Please

[Grant]

Originally Posted by Steveo

Photos, we want PHOTOS!!!!

Please

Here you go. Real-time.

Don't say I never gave you anything.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

For those of you checking into the Forum after dark, here are the webcam pictures from mid day today, April, 13th.

Silver Lake in Hollis had ice-out either Sunday or Monday and is usually one week ahead of Lake Winnipesaukee.


Alton Bay Cam


BearCam2


Black Cat Island Cam


Downing's Landing


2011 Echo Shores Ice-Out Watch, by DRH


FairhavenCam


Governors Island Cam


Moultonborough Bay Cam


Overlook Cam on Paugus Bay


Pine Island South Cam


Rattlesnake IslandCam
2011 Ice-Out, by Island Girl

Photo for April 13th has not been posted yet.
Silver Sands Ice-Out Picture of the day


SmithCoveCam


Varney Point Cam, Gilford


WeirsCam


WinnipesaukeeCam


WinnipesaukeeCam 2


WolfeboroCam

Other Area Lakes:


Lake Wentworth Cam


Merrymeeting Lake Webcam


Winnisquam Marine Webcam



Ossipee Lake Webcams

The ice is really taking a beating with this rain!

[codeman671]

Pictures as promised. Starting left to right, leaving Mark to head towards Cattle Landing, looking off my dock towards Mink, looking off my deck across to Camp Lawrence, and looking left off my dock towards Bear, to the left of Lawrence.

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

The difference in the past 24 hours is dramatic. Looking at the webcams, dark areas and open water showing up everywhere, and in places that didn't even show a hint 2 days ago. Large "steam" plumes showing on Wolfeboro and other cams.

Seems someone hit the fast forward button! (though won't help me...my April 8th guess is already done)

Very dramatic changes indeed. The "steam" is fog (but you knew that) and fog eats ice and snow like crazy.

Over in my neck of the woods, parts of the lake that had ice fishermen on them on Saturday reporting 14 inches of ice with 8 of it being solid black ice are now grayish/black and moving in the wind. It will easily be open water by the end of the week if not sooner.

BT

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

Very dramatic changes indeed. The "steam" is fog (but you knew that) and fog eats ice and snow like crazy.

Over in my neck of the woods, parts of the lake that had ice fishermen on them on Saturday reporting 14 inches of ice with 8 of it being solid black ice are now grayish/black and moving in the wind. It will easily be open water by the end of the week if not sooner.

BT

80 percent of Sebago Lake is free of ice as of today. If history is any indicator, Winnipesaukee is not far behind......

[CanisLupusArctos]

Conditions are beginning to look favorable for iceout in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame. The ice is now breaking up daily and is about 2 inches thick. It is composed of the late season "candle" crystals that are weakly joined. Within a few hundred feet of its edges, the ice is rolling in the waves rather than holding flat.



A strong late winter blizzard on the great plains is pushing a cold front into the Mississippi River states tonight, a process that is generating severe thunderstorms along the cold front and a change to cold weather behind it. This storm system will track to our west this weekend, initially causing our local wind to increase from the southeast -- a major wave-generating direction for the open lake. The cold front now pushing severe weather through the nation's mid-section will overtake this area on Sunday. It will bring rain, possible thunderstorms, and strong wind gusts to the lake, along with a wind shift into the northwest -- the other major wave-generating direction here.



Along with the cold front there will be rain and possible thunderstorms. The combination of weather conditions will significantly reduce the amount of ice in the lake -- perhaps bringing official iceout. The only factor that will not be present are warm temperatures, or this prediction would express greater confidence. Temperatures may dip into the 20s for the next two nights, and we may see a few more snowflakes this weekend also.



Despite lack of warm temps this year, the ice has weakened thanks to recent rain and dense fog. The weaker ice will clear out very quickly if we get strong enough wind. It is beginning to look like a windy weekend, with wind coming from the lake's two biggest wave-generating directions. If the wind is able to clear the main lake of ice, some patches may remain in the protected bays.



Warmer weather -- near 60 F -- is in the forecast for after Monday. That may be enough to melt any remaining ice.



Official iceout is declared by Emerson Aviation of Laconia Airport, when the M/S Mount Washington can reach all of her ports without hitting any ice. I am forecasting a 75% chance of iceout during or within 48 hours after after this weekend's expected stormy weather, and a 90% chance of iceout within the next 7 days.

[Bear Island South]

Tuesday sounds good to me that is my Ice-out guess

[Slickcraft]

View today from Belknap Point, Welch Island on the right.

[Just Sold]

Modis shows Alton Bay and the area towards Lee's Mill are open plus a big area of the lower middle part of the lake but not much else yet.

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/...esolution=250m

[Airedale1]

View from today, taken from Lincoln Park in Gilford. Straight ahead is Round island with a snow-capped Mount Washington off in the distance. Ice out should be soon.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Originally Posted by Just Sold

Modis shows Alton Bay and the area towards Lee's Mill are open plus a big area of the lower middle part of the lake but not much else yet.

You're right! Happily, today's picture has much less clouds for a clearer view of the lake.

[fpartri497]

I am quite suprised at how low the water level Is Inside the marina. Usually at this time of year It is very high

[trfour]

Originally Posted by fpartri497

I am quite suprised at how low the water level Is Inside the marina. Usually at this time of year It is very high

I think that the operators know just what they are doing these days and also think that they are doing a yo-mans job at it! Now, if Mother Nature would catch us a break, Maybe we won't have to deal with the ( No Wake ), after most put their boats and such in the open waters of Lake Winnipesaukee for the up and coming 2011 season!

Terry
______________________________________

[Bear Island South]

This picture was taken yesterday by a friend, standing at cattle landing looking south towards Bear.

[Bear247]

Originally Posted by Bear Island South

This picture was taken yesterday by a friend, standing at cattle landing looking south towards Bear.

We got a clear shot right to the cove.

[Eagle's Nest]

Hi All,
We've been watching the web cams and all of your comments excitedly from home. Who'd have thought watching ice melt could be so much fun! We were going to head out to East Bear Island on Monday, 4/18 from Smith Cove. Has anyone been out there among the ice flows to know if it's clear enough? Have a great day!
EN

[Rattlesnake Gal]

The lake is open this morning on the Broads side of the island!

It's supposed to get windy later, which means ice-out could happen today.

[Bear Island South]

Originally Posted by fpartri497

I am quite suprised at how low the water level Is Inside the marina. Usually at this time of year It is very high

right where it should be for this time of year, perfect height for getting the dock in next week

[Flyfisha]

So what are my chances of getting out of Minge Cove and over to the "quiet" side of Rattlesnake tomorrow?? I can't stand it any longer??

[nhd]

Doubtful, very doubtful. Looks pretty solid from our house overlooking Rattlesnake this morning. If it looks better towards the end of the day I will let you know.

[JMR]

I have a friend that boated out to the quiet side of Rattlesnake yesterday afternoonm ames Farm. Some ice left below Aligator Point, but all else clear. haven't heard if he got around to other side. He sent a picture, but i haven't posted it yet.