Christmas Weekend Possible Snow Event

[This'nThat]

Originally Posted by Rose

If you have a complaint, write a letter to Weather.com, but don't come on here and repeatedly disparage all meteorologists

I think most people reading my comments know what I am saying. And as for a single site -- please re-read my original post, and you'll see that the hype isn't isolated to a single weather site.

Thanks for the advice -- but I will continue to call it as I see it.

[Skip]

Hi Rose....

I just had to comment that I don't know what I like best about you, your prognostication skills or your refreshing candor....

It is great seeing you posting again....Merry Christmas!

[Resident 2B]

Merry Christmas to all.

Forecasting is a very complicated task. We have come a long way over the last 25 years, and the more we learn the more we realize we do not know. TnT, as someone who has studied plasma physics and atmospheric physics and have been very involved in computer modeling before I retired, I can relate to your frustration, but it is far more complex than you are suggesting. Model initialization is a major issue right now and the algorithms do a poor job of trying to over correct for weak initialization. Good people are working on this problem.

Many of us that post here share our opinions for pleasure and enjoyment. None of us are ever completely correct, but we love the challenge of trying to be correct. The NWS has the best overall forecasts because they are not impacted by the spin required by the news editors at the TV stations so accurately noted by CLA.

As to the current situation, I see it as a small event for the Lakes Region. The phasing of the two jets will not occur in time for this to be a big deal around here. As a result, most of it will go out the sea, but not as far out as the last storm. However, there is enough energy around to make it interesting.

Again, Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night! I heard this somewhere before!

R2B

[Lakegeezer]

What is "model initiation"? I'm thinking it is when the model realizes it is wrong and has to start with "as is" rather than continuing with its erroneous prediction. Do the standard models get improved as time goes on, or do new models emerge to challenge what is already in use?

The 3:07AM NWS report for Laconia is saying SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. - so there is some hope.

[john60ri]

My father used to say, "Whether it's cold or whether it's hot, we're gonna have weather, whether or not." Merry Christmas and "God bless us, everyone."

[Resident 2B]

The models have begun to get into agreement, and it is looking more and more like a serious storm is on the way. Last night, I thought it would be minor around here, but disregard that forecast.

This could get very serious!

NWS has a Blizzard Watch for a lot of the area.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

A cup of coffee, about to delve into Mom's apple pie, figured I'd check up on the potential storm. Fully expected to see a forecast for a couple of inches at the lake, a couple of feet on the outer cape. Fully surprised to see the words, "Blizzard Watch" greet me when I logged into my own web page!

Now's a good time for us all to observe the personality differences in forecasters (as well as prepare for the storm if we need to.) Skip wrote what's best about Rose, and TnT mentioned what should be expected of a meteorologist. I'd like to point out to all, that meteorologists are humans with their own personalities, likes & dislikes, habits, flaws, winning points, and personal struggles. Each modern-day weather forecast is a mixture of two things:

1) A number of computers that look at the present state of the atmosphere and calculate the probabilities of where it will go from here --different scenarios--based on the known past. It's more complicated than that, but for the layperson, that's the basic idea.

2) Human meteorologists who've studied enough math to have a pretty good idea how those computers think, and who've studied enough weather to know how it moves and changes so that when any given computer is being a [expletive] again, they know well enough to disregard the computer.

Each forecaster's life experience and personality plays a role in what he/she ultimately decides. Two forecasters predicting the same storm may have two different levels of excitement. You might have one guy who spent 10 years flying Air Force missions in Alaska who simply doesn't get excited about winter weather anymore. He'll predict 2 feet of snow but he'll be ho-hum about it. His collegue might be a woman from southern California who never saw snow until she went to college at Mississippi State and witnessed a 3-inch snowfall close everything down. She'll predict the 2-foot snowfall with a great deal more excitement than the former USAF guy.

Times like this, when a potential blizzard knocks at the door, are when we can start to see forecaster personalities come out. It's like when I first became an EMT, and noticed that my co-workers had certain personalities that always showed in true emergencies. After a while you get to know them -- this guy gets easily excited, that guy gets calmer as the situation gets worse, etc. Same for the weather forecasters. Look for their personalities in the technical discussions they write.

I once had the opportunity to shadow two NWS mets for a college paper. After hanging out with them for a whole shift I was much better at reading their forecasts. One of them was a spastic/athletic personality who had a tendency to put a lot of big words and exclamation marks in his forecast discussions any time a storm was coming. I can't explain how meeting him helped me forever-after know what he was predicting, but that whole "put a face to the name" concept worked. I could read through one of his storm forecasts with a general sense of what was actual information and what was just "him being him."

NWS meteorologists usually sign their last names or initials at the end of whatever they write. Services like AccuWeather usually have a by-line on each article, like a newspaper would.

As we now have a blizzard threatening New York City and parts of New England during a period of increased traveling, we can expect forecaster personalities to play a bigger role in what they say. Take note of it for future reference. When another big storm threatens, remember this one and take mental notes again.

As for my early opinions on this storm, regarding the lake...

Wind with this storm is expected to be from the northeast. That's not a good direction for snow at the NW end of the lake. It all hits the Ossipees, and everything downwind of those pesky mountains gets "shadowed." The stronger the wind, the longer the shadow. Moultonborough center (Old Country Store) is open to the northeast, barely. They're in a wind funnel between the Ossipees and the Sandwich Range. The wind could pick up speed going through there. A 40 mph wind from the NE can become a much stronger wind right along the Rt. 25 corridor from Moultonborough Airport all the way to Moulton Farm.

For snowfall, however, Moultonborough Neck would be in the "shadow" of the Ossipees, as would Center Harbor and perhaps Meredith Bay area. Those locations would get lower snow totals.

Higher snow totals would happen on northeast-facing slopes. Sandwich is one of those places. Ossipee is another. So are Gilford and West Alton.

What I've predicted is all based on a snowstorm with strong wind from the northeast -- that's a great scenario for Gunstock. And right in the middle of Christmas vacation week, too.

[Rose]

Hosted Christmas today for my family, so I'm way to tired and stupid right now to forecast intelligently. I did want to thank Don for the beautiful snowflakes floating down my browser page!!! Hoping to be intelligent enough to put my 2 cents worth in tomorrow.

[VitaBene]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

As for my early opinions on this storm, regarding the lake...

Wind with this storm is expected to be from the northeast. That's not a good direction for snow at the NW end of the lake. It all hits the Ossipees, and everything downwind of those pesky mountains gets "shadowed." The stronger the wind, the longer the shadow. Moultonborough center (Old Country Store) is open to the northeast, barely. They're in a wind funnel between the Ossipees and the Sandwich Range. The wind could pick up speed going through there. A 40 mph wind from the NE can become a much stronger wind right along the Rt. 25 corridor from Moultonborough Airport all the way to Moulton Farm.

For snowfall, however, Moultonborough Neck would be in the "shadow" of the Ossipees, as would Center Harbor and perhaps Meredith Bay area. Those locations would get lower snow totals.

Higher snow totals would happen on northeast-facing slopes. Sandwich is one of those places. Ossipee is another. So are Gilford and West Alton.

What I've predicted is all based on a snowstorm with strong wind from the northeast -- that's a great scenario for Gunstock. And right in the middle of Christmas vacation week, too.

Thank you to Rose and CLA (and all of the others that contributed).

CLA, I was really interested in the section that I have quoted above, I live on the North Side of Holland Hill (up the hill from the Country Store). My house faces due North and we get some crazy winds here as it is. It sounds like this one may be real signicant here.

I currently do not have an anemometer but would like to get one, any idea on where to find one (reasonable but decent? possible?).

As you may know Skip and I are both volunteers with snowmobile clubs and this forecasting is really key for us!

[jetskier]

The forecast is for 8" to 12" at the lake. They are predicting 12" to 20" in the Boston area. This thing is going to be a beast. Hopefully, it jump starts the snowmobiling season.

Jetskier

[robmac]

It's snowing now in Nashua and according to WMUR and Boston weather people it looks like the real deal a big one.

[TomC]

if history is any indicator

[john60ri]

The forecast down here in RI is for 10-15 inches. We have light snow now at 8:00 AM. Should be an interesting Monday morning for those of us who are working.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by VitaBene

CLA, I was really interested in the section that I have quoted above, I live on the North Side of Holland Hill (up the hill from the Country Store). My house faces due North and we get some crazy winds here as it is. It sounds like this one may be real signicant here.

I currently do not have an anemometer but would like to get one, any idea on where to find one (reasonable but decent? possible?).

You're going to get some wind out of this. Wind is expected to be from the north.

The winter storm warning has been upgraded to a blizzard warning for Belknap & Carroll Counties a few minutes ago. That means wind sustained at 35 mph for at least 3 hours, combined with falling or drifting snow, to create visibility of less than a quarter-mile.

The blizzard warning is being expanded west to inland areas as well as coastal, as forecasters at the NWS become confident in a prediction that the above criteria will be met there.

Looks like an average 12" around the lake. If the wind comes from the north instead of the usual northeast, then Moultonborough Neck will not be sheltered by the Ossipees this time. Center Harbor might be sheltered by Red Hill. Otherwise, I would expect locally higher totals (15-18") in Tamworth, Sandwich, Gilford, and Alton.

If the 35+ mph sustained wind actually happens this far inland, I would expect a wind tunnel effect to set up along the Rt. 25 corridor in Moultonborough, where the wind will be forced between the Ossipees and Red Hill. The wind tunnel effect, if it happens, would increase the wind speed going through there.

I might also expect some wind enhancement along Rt. 11 in Alton Bay, IF the wind is from the north. A strong north wind would be forced "around the bend" by Mount Major, and wind speeds up when it does that. Rt 11 lies on that bend.

The same kind of effect may also occur on the eastern side of the Ossipees, near the intersection of Rt 16 and 25.

These locations, along with any exposed hill/ridge tops, are the areas I think are most likely to experience wind damage. This prediction is based on a NORTH wind.

As the storm begins to clear, wind will shift and come from the Northwest (Center Harbor to Alton.) We deal with that all the time. Everyone knows exactly what happens at his or her own location when we get hit with strong NW winds, because they're so common in fall and winter. Therefore I don't need to point them out.

As for an anemometer, a good place to shop online is www.ambientweather.com. If you'd rather shop in person, Robert E. White Instruments in Boston is the kind of business that's rare today -- honest, good service, sells quality stuff, puts customers first, etc. They are also online.

[This'nThat]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

I might also expect some wind enhancement along Rt. 11 in Alton Bay, IF the wind is from the north. A strong north wind would be forced "around the bend" by Mount Major, and wind speeds up when it does that. Rt 11 lies on that bend.

As the storm begins to clear, wind will shift and come from the Northwest (Center Harbor to Alton.) We deal with that all the time. Everyone knows exactly what happens at his or her own location when we get hit with strong NW winds, because they're so common in fall and winter. Therefore I don't need to point them out.

I can see the wind eating away at the ice in Alton Bay today. Before the storm, the ice was past Echo Point. Now there are white caps in the bay, and the leading edge of the ice has been pushed well South of Echo Point, even though the temperature is in the teens.

[Rose]

Hi Skip!

Merry Christmas to you and your family, too!

That candor thing can get me in lots of trouble at times, but as Popeye says, "I am what I am!" Thanks for seeing the good in it!

Originally Posted by Skip

Hi Rose....

I just had to comment that I don't know what I like best about you, your prognostication skills or your refreshing candor....

It is great seeing you posting again....Merry Christmas!