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10-21-2010, 03:07 PM | #1 |
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Expect Extreme Winter, US Forecasters Warn...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39780154/ns/weather/
I think that CLA will do another great job keeping us up to date on the weather front/s here this winter. Terry _______________________________
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10-26-2010, 05:59 AM | #2 | |
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How utterly profound |
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10-26-2010, 06:20 AM | #3 |
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I have lived in these parts long enough to not give a crap what somebody or some book, magazine or weather forecaster predicts for winter weather.
I will just look out he window. I can predict more accuratly doing that then some of these idiots can with millions of dollars worth of equipment, besides this is New England and as the old saying goes. Waith 5 minutes, it'll change. |
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10-26-2010, 08:42 AM | #4 |
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I'm with you, MarkinNH......these were the same people who said there would be a big hurricane season due to "global warming".....they predicted 12-15 named storms with at least 5 being category 4-5, causing great property damage and danger to human life, blah, blah.
Turned out that the few storms that even developed weren't much worse than a summer thunderstorm in NH. |
10-26-2010, 10:43 AM | #5 | |
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We're up to Richard
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I'm teaching two meteorology classes this semester, one of them being a general weather and climate course for non-science majors. I think some of the students thought it would be easy. After a third of them got a D or lower on the first exam, I think they now realize it isn't easy. |
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11-04-2010, 12:30 PM | #6 |
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So true. Now we are up to Thomas which threatens Haiti and they have already had more than their share of troubles.
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10-26-2010, 11:08 AM | #7 | |
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More than "the few"
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10-26-2010, 11:02 AM | #8 |
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10-27-2010, 10:38 PM | #9 | |
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In the meantime, let's get this thread back on track. It's about guesses for what will happen this winter. That's supposed to be fun. After all, there's a high likelihood of any guess being wrong! I've been wondering: Why don't we ever have an "ice-in contest?" Probably good for a thread of its own. MarkinNH, I have a friend in the lakes region who grew up farming and still helps his farmer friends with labor when they need it. He and I have some interesting forecast contests from time to time -- with me using modern meteorology and him using old fashioned farming knowledge. Most of the time we arrive at the same conclusion by different routes. A couple of times he totally blew my forecast away, and vice-versa. We've had fun with it. |
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10-28-2010, 05:05 AM | #10 |
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Could we have both please?
I always read your forecasts with interest. The next time that you and your friend are having a forecasting contest could you post his predictions as well?
It would be really fascinating, to hear your friend's forecast along with the old fashioned farming knowledge he used to arrive at his prediction. |
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10-28-2010, 06:33 AM | #11 |
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I'm with U Markin Nh
Forecasters are like politicians, believe none of what they say.
80% of the time they are only guessing. The 20% of the time they are right its just because they guessed correctly. Last Sunday was a perfect example. Forecast was for showers LATE in the day. I got set up by 8AM, by 11AM it was raining and never stopped all day. Washed all the paint Id put up right off the building. I cant tell U how many times this happens during the course of the summer. Maybe they should have term limits of weather forecasters also. |
10-28-2010, 06:38 AM | #12 |
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La Nina
I'm hearing this is a La Nina year. What does that mean for New England weather? Is there a strong correlation to what will happen, or is it still "anything could happen"?
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10-28-2010, 07:00 AM | #13 |
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La Nina
Rose and CLA, is this a year for Super La Nina?
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10-29-2010, 06:30 AM | #14 | |
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I wonder if there's a La Nina equivalent to this El Nino? |
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10-29-2010, 04:29 PM | #15 |
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It is pretty amazing that with all the technology available today and promises of better and more accurate weather predictions, doesn't seem like forecasts are a whole lot better. Granted it's certainly helped in gathering data and observing with greater detail what is happening, but it seems like the modeling technology is nothing more than a computerized way of guessing what may happen. Is it any better than humans? Doesn't really seem so.
As an avid hunter I pay very close to what I see as I scout my favorite deer producing honey holes. This year it seems that the amount of available natural forage is down considerably this year over years past. For example last year there were a ton of acorns everywhere, this year they are not nearly as plentiful. What does that mean? Not much, other than it's often said that a lack of acorns indicates a tough winter ahead. Accurate assessment of the coming winter? Beats me, but certainly noteworthy. Only thing I hope to happen is that we don't have a mid winter warm up and torrential rains like last year. It really screwed up the snowmobile season! |
10-30-2010, 06:15 AM | #16 |
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I even like the subtitle of this webpage...
"Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism"
Good reading and does a nice job in laying out and discussing the whole climate change arguments, including "It's the sun" http://www.skepticalscience.com/sola...al-warming.htm When Al Gore was busy inventing the INTERNET, he should have taken time out long enough to call it "Climate Change" instead of "Global Warming". I for one, am sick of hearing " see... there is no global warming" every time it snows.
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10-31-2010, 09:46 AM | #17 |
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The climate will change. Climate Definition: the composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years.
For example, Lake Winnipesaukee is a Glacial Lake -- carved during the last ice age which peaked about 20,000 years ago, and ended about 11,000 years ago. The deepest "recent" ice age occured 650,000 years ago, lasted 50,000 years, and dropped the global temperatures by 9 degrees and the oceans by 400 feet. Since then, ices ages have occured every 100,000 years, followed by significant warming periods. Scientists don't really understand the conditions which cause such temperature swings. But one thing's for sure -- no ice age, or corresponding warm up, has ever been caused by man's activities. So, we may be experiencing a climate change as we speak. But whatever it is, it isn't caused by man, and won't be stopped by mankind. I, for one, am going to sit back and enjoy the warmer temperatures. |
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11-04-2010, 02:02 PM | #18 | |
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11-07-2010, 08:44 PM | #19 |
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Well, having no weather education and no sicence education in almost 30 years, I defer to the experts.
But I do have one thing to say . . . Bring on the snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! nj2nh
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12-01-2010, 08:13 PM | #20 | |
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12-01-2010, 09:51 PM | #21 |
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Here's to more ragtop days!
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12-05-2010, 10:58 PM | #22 |
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120 Day Weather Forecast Promising for Snow
If you have no faith in long range forecasts, Please Don't Read! You need to remember the long-range forecast true value is not in the details but the trend they suggest. The important things are Colder than normal Dec.-Jan, with major snowfalls across VT,NH and ME. Southern New England more snow changing to rain and possible ice storms. Temperatures some 1-2 degrees below normal thru Jan., with Feb.-March above normal 1-2 degrees. Some comparisons of the current patterns suggest a Winter season much like 1969 with very heavy snow events throughout New England. Next weekend's storm perhaps the kick-off! Still this event is to far off for details but close enough for us to see a stormy trend setting up. Models do not agree on the the track. We will find out soon.
AccuWeather.com's Meteorologist Joe Bastardi says that the La Nina, cooler than normal ocean water temperatures in the Pacific, will play a significant role in this year's winter. Bastardi expects the heaviest snow of the winter to fall from Northern New England to Minnesota. Farther south, a 'wintry battle zone' will set up, meaning that a mix of rain, sleet, ice, and snow is all expected, depending upon location. Read more of Bastardi's AccuWeather winter forecast www.AccuWeather.com. Joe D'Aleo of IceCap.us also says that La Nina will play a significant role in the storms and their tracks they take this winter. D'Aleo says that the heaviest snow should fall from Boston north, especially across Northern New England, as well. D'Aleo says that northern ski areas should have a great winter, while southern ones may struggle at times. Read more of the Joe D'Aleo's winter forecast www.icecap.us. |
12-07-2010, 04:29 PM | #23 |
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Indian Winter
It was October and the Indians on a remote reservation asked their new Chief if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a Chief in a modern society he had never been taught the old secrets. When he looked at the sky he couldn't tell what the winter was going to be like.
Nevertheless, to be on the safe side he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared. But being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is the coming winter going to be cold?" "It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold," the meteorologist at the weather service responded. So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared. A week later he called the National Weather Service again. "Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?" "Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be a very cold winter." The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find. Two weeks later the Chief called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?" "Absolutely," the man replied. "It's looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters ever." "How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked. The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy." |
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01-20-2011, 08:20 PM | #24 |
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Jan 20th-2011...
With many Northeast cities already over their average winter snowfall, a new snowstorm is moving in from the Midwest. NBC's Brian Williams reports.
Credit Nightly News, video. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/...news/#41182320 Terry ____________________________
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01-21-2011, 07:38 AM | #25 |
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Awesome!
The last 10 days have been unreal. 30" of snow in the past 10 days, not including the snow we are getting today.
And keep your eyes open for something next week possibly.
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01-31-2011, 09:01 AM | #26 | |
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02-01-2011, 05:41 PM | #27 |
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Satellite View From BlackCat Weather Station...
Here comes the clouds in the second round of this latest storm from the southwest. Hang onto your hat's!
Credit, Winnipesaukee's BlackCat Island weather station. http://www.blackcatnh.com/
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02-02-2011, 10:42 PM | #28 |
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THUNDER SNOW and more, from...
Jim Cantore, credit the weather channel, video's.
http://www.weather.com/outlook/video...der-snow-19541 Stay warm! Terry __________________________________________
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11-02-2010, 10:49 AM | #29 | |
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I see a logical explanation for it: In the last few years, TV and print media have been going down the tubes. We studied the trend when I was in UNH Journalism school in 2004, and it's more apparent now. There are many reasons for the media going down the tubes -- too many to mention without getting off-topic. The result is that they're pulling out all the stops to retain viewers so they can stay alive. The average news-watcher's attention span shortened on 9/11. For the first time in the age of modern media, there was such a flood of information, and such a demand for the very latest, that when the event's information flow started to slow down a few days later, the viewers had already become addicted to the high-speed-info-feed. There was demand, and so suppliers stepped forward. Now we in the weather and climate field have to deal with the public's increased jumpiness. Remember when we had the terror alert color level constantly flashing on the news screen? They don't display it anymore, probably because it didn't change enough to keep people interested. But they still feed everyone's craving for that sort of thing. Thus, we have, and will continue to have, things like "Super La Nina," which I have never heard of, either. I learn new things every day, so when I see things like this I try to dig a little and see if I might be enlightened. But after Rose said she hadn't heard of Super La Nina, I didn't bother digging. For the record, there IS a La Nina happening this year. It is affecting the weather. And it will affect reporters, too. |
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11-02-2010, 11:57 AM | #30 | |
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Thanks for your contributions!
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I find myself completely turned off by the "over-the-top" hyperbole spun by so many TV meteorologists/personalities that I pay little attention to their weather forecasts anymore. Instead I read interesting and well thought out posts like your's and Rose's, and search out many alternative web based blogs and sites. I sincerely thank you for the time you put into this site, and your ability to explain complex weather patterns and trends in layman's terms. I look forward to your prognostication throughout this upcoming winter season! Skip |
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11-02-2010, 12:04 PM | #31 |
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So I take it that you won't be watching the non-stop, 10 hours of election coverage on every station tonight, where talking heads will go on an on about nothing, until they have some actual results sometime tomorrow?
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11-04-2010, 11:32 AM | #32 | |
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They treat meteorology the same way. In the 1980s they announced storms as top stories when the storms were set to begin within a few hours. Now they're making top stories out of storms that haven't even formed yet. I think our our "Me-first" culture is playing a role, which the TV outlets reflect: "When the Monster MegaStorm hit, WE were the first ones to tell you about it! No one informs you like we do! Watch our station and be the first to know!" In a way it's not the TV station's fault, because they have to cater to their audience in order to have viewers. But in another way, it's not like the reporters themselves are from a different world. When they leave their jobs to go home each day, they're part of the same culture as the rest of us. One thing we all forget is that computer projections, whether they're meteorological or not, are still made in computers. Computers screw up, because they're made by people, and people have never been perfect. We don't have all the information necessary to feed the computers. We never did. Nonetheless, most people don't know that, and/or can't understand that. There are a great number of people who see computers as infallible. The traditional news outlets are able to use "computer projections" to gain viewer interest, for now. That gives us "Season forecasts." My question is, what is the average person supposed to DO with that information? If there's a big hurricane season predicted, is there something reasonable that Joe Homeowner should do, that he wouldn't normally do? Should he evacuate his oceanfront house in June, and return in December? That doesn't seem like "living" to me. He's going to end up in a casket sometime, somehow, no matter what. So, if the information doesn't help him truly live while he's alive, then it's just entertainment. Those projections can lead to ill-preparedness. Let's say the experts predict a very quiet year for hurricanes, and they end up being right. Only two hurricanes form, but both of them reach cat-4 status and hit big cities in the mainland US. That's an expensive year for hurricane cleanup, but a light year for hurricanes overall. Same for winter season forecasts: If the projections say to expect an easy season ahead, is it good to sit back and prepare less? If experts predict a hard winter, prepare more? I think people should forget the projections and prepare the same way, every year. |
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11-04-2010, 01:54 PM | #33 | |
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11-04-2010, 01:01 PM | #34 | |
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It's great to read what you folks post here. |
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11-09-2010, 11:43 PM | #35 | |
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Now about those hysterical reports from within the storm: As we speak, journalism classes in universities are debating the issue of "responsible reporting." The original intent of having a reporter in the storm (anyone remember WBZ-TV's Shelby Scott?) is to let people know it's not a good time to venture out. True journalism is meant to give you information that you can evaluate for yourself in making your own decisions, or to continuously question your elected officials to hold them accountable, in order that the freedom of society is maintained. Everyone loved Shelby Scott and many people felt bad for her, for always getting the storm assignments. The generation that grew up with her, and reporters like her in other cities, has now decided that we need "not one, but FOUR Shelby Scotts," to provide complete coverage. And some of the things they do to get our attention IS the subject of debate in those journalism classes. After all, we see lots of people ignore "road closed" barricades only to discover their purpose the hard way. But the reporters were hip deep in the raging floodwaters. So why shouldn't the viewer be, also? What the people don't see as often are the outtakes, in which the reporter gets swept away by the weather. For lots of that, you have to go to YouTube. This morning I saw reports of the season's first snow in southern New England, with a lengthy live report from the highway: "Behind me you can see the DUSTING of snow on the grass in the median..." If I remember correctly, Shelby Scott didn't start doing her snowstorm reports until the first actual snowstorm. The first dusting usually became Jack & Liz's line to introduce Brucey with the weather. "Well, Bruce is here with the weather - seems we had a dusting of snow this morning. Any more on the way?" But that was then, and this is now: A dusting of snow gets all four storm reporters out there. I agree with the previous post: Just the fact that we are discussing weather-related issues instead of actual weather means that what we really need is some actual weather around here. Preferably the kind that gets us all talking. Like deep snow! |
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11-11-2010, 03:27 PM | #36 |
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Jack & Liz with Bruce Schwoegler with the weather I presume?Followed by Bob Lobel with sports.Heres Bruce... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAzQtYrwEwg
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02-05-2011, 05:01 PM | #37 | |
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Thats, La Niņa and El Niņo...
Quote:
Notice the little squiggle over the Spanish ( ņ )... Just kidding! ... The only reason I can type a Spanish ņ is because I have a sister named Doņa... Back on topic, and thank you. Terry __________________________________
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trfour Always Remember, The Best Safety Device In The Boat, or on a PWC Snowmobile etc., Is YOU! Safe sledding tips and much more; http://www.snowmobile.org/snowmobiling-safety.html Last edited by trfour; 02-06-2011 at 12:58 PM. Reason: correct my English... :) |
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02-06-2011, 10:32 PM | #38 |
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Wow!
A well fought contest,... How fitting is it that the 'Green Bay' Packers won the Superbowl here in Dallas, when most of us were still snowed in???
A Great Superbowl this year, just as well!!!! Wish our Patriots more luck next season! Terry ________________________________________
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02-10-2011, 07:10 PM | #39 |
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They were saying on the news tonight, that the major part of Winter is over. Expecting to be in the 50's next week or soon thereafter.
We will still get some snow, but the blocking high (or was it a low?) that has been letting the icy cold air down from Canada is going away and now warmer Southern air is going to be able to flow up toward the Northeast. Hey, I'm just relating what the news said tonight..... |
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02-10-2011, 10:45 PM | #40 |
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Good News, Lakesrider!...
Ya, after starting out this morning here in Dallas/Fort Worth at 15 degrees, it did get above freezing long enough to start melting some of the snow that we have here. They are not used to such cold weather and the normal highs are 65. and some change degrees... Winnipesaukee T shirt weather for and 'Or'US.
I just checked, and the polar caps are moving slightly! However, we will leave all of this up to old faithful, 'Mother Nature'. Normally, as most of us get a January thaw, it's been recycled into dang near the middle of February this year! The first day of Spring for 2011 is scheduled for March 20th this year, and yes we shall see. An update on this years February thaw, from the Weather Channel. A good read... What Lakesrider was talking about. http://www.weather.com/outlook/weath...nge_2011-02-09 Terry ________________________________________ PS; And remember , Don't make old people mad. We don't like being old in the first place!!!!!!
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trfour Always Remember, The Best Safety Device In The Boat, or on a PWC Snowmobile etc., Is YOU! Safe sledding tips and much more; http://www.snowmobile.org/snowmobiling-safety.html Last edited by trfour; 02-11-2011 at 02:11 PM. Reason: February thaw update... |
02-11-2011, 12:46 AM | #41 | |
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02-11-2011, 08:40 AM | #42 |
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TRfour
TRfour is right - it has been unusually cold down here in DFW. I haven't been to work in a week as the fire sprinkler system at work burst and flooded the building. What a mess!
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trfour (02-11-2011) |
02-12-2011, 08:17 PM | #43 | |
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Thanks corollaman...
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I could tell that it was just a matter of time t'ill you turned your ship around. Especially this winter! Hey, taxes are going Up in Texas too, grin and bare, they say... We may host the off shore boat races again here in the Lakes Region some day, who knows... Mother Nature has been known to give all of us a dope slap, every now and again... Terry _________________________________________ Side note; On the morning of February 10th 2011, The fresh snow pack and arctic air in northeast Oklahoma helped the town of Nowata drop all the way to 31 degrees below zero. This is a preliminary new record low for the entire state of Oklahoma... Previous record set back in 1905 & 1930 at -27 degrees. Credit The Weather Channel; http://www.weather.com/outlook/weath...day_2011-02-10
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trfour Always Remember, The Best Safety Device In The Boat, or on a PWC Snowmobile etc., Is YOU! Safe sledding tips and much more; http://www.snowmobile.org/snowmobiling-safety.html Last edited by trfour; 02-14-2011 at 10:05 PM. Reason: Add a side note |
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02-11-2011, 09:25 AM | #44 | |
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02-11-2011, 12:51 PM | #46 |
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Every year they say the same thing. But, as long as I can remember we have 2 to 3 good storms between mid February and 1st of April.
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10-28-2010, 07:12 AM | #47 | |
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IMO, while this year might feature a moderate-strong Nina, we will still get some decent cold/snowy weather, with some warm breaks in between. Winter will start early (late November/early December) and take a 30 day break in the January time frame into early Feb. There are signs pointing to a snowy late Feb into March. Keep in mind I am not even an amatuer weather guy. I am just a guy who tries to read up on stuff and makes wild guesses.
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10-28-2010, 02:34 PM | #48 | |
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Now back to winter: We have La Nina in progress. We also have the sun, which has been stuck in low-output mode for the last few years. Some people say it doesn't affect the weather, but I find that hard to believe because without the sun, there would be no weather at all. When a severe weather threat approaches, a few extra minutes of sunshine can make all the difference as to whether a location gets a huge storm or not. The sun hasn't behaved like this in a long time, so I think this will be interesting to watch and see how it plays out. Currently, the cold air masses responsible for yesterday's blizzard in the upper plains (and severe weather outbreak along its leading edge) is now pushing east and south. A primary cold front has reached the Gulf of Mexico, and a second cold front is now just to our west, approaching the Appalachians. These cold fronts are the leading edges of cold air masses. They have overtaken most of the nation's mid-section and as a result, frost and freeze alerts are in effect for a large portion of the Plains states, even into southern Texas. Many places are looking at the end of the growing season. This event produced 1-2 feet of snow over Colorado before moving to the Great Lakes where it rapidly intesified. The season's only beginning. What can we make of this? It's hard to say, because this is New England, the meteorological wildcard of locations. And for everything we think we know about the weather, it's always ready to teach us something new. That's why I love watching it so much. All meteorologists, regardless of their degree, are wise to consider themselves lifelong students of the sky. I'm still looking at maps, trying to get a feel for it all. If my buddy was here, he'd probably have a forecast already! |
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trfour (10-28-2010) |
10-29-2010, 06:03 AM | #49 |
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another opinion....
FWIW....just passing the prognostication along....
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2010/10/2...nter-forecast/
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10-28-2010, 06:57 AM | #50 | |
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Years ago I used to get all worked up whenever a big snowstorm was forecast. Sometimes the forecast came true, sometimes it didn't. Now that I am older and wiser (mostly older) I just look out the window and say, Yup it's snowing and we will get what we get. |
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nicole (11-01-2010) |
11-26-2010, 06:15 AM | #51 |
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Some may not realize how critical the forecast is to lakes region business' but it can make you or break you. Often, there will be a forecast for good weather and a snowstorm blows in over the weekend. Restaurants have ordered heavy, some schedule expensive entertainment, plan special events and load up the payroll for a big weekend. Very easy to lose thousands of $$ in that scenario. Same thing if they screw up the forecast in the other direction. They predict a big storm that doesn't materialize and nobody comes up to the lakes region for fear of bad travel conditions ......so there you sit....good skiing conditions, good ice on lake, nice weather and no people..
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11-26-2010, 01:25 PM | #52 |
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Icy morning on 11-26-2010.
Freezing rain over night coated most of the trees and grass with a layer of ice.
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Argie's Wife (02-11-2011) |
11-27-2010, 12:13 PM | #53 |
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Beautiful Picture!
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Jonas Pilot (11-27-2010) |
11-29-2010, 12:11 PM | #54 |
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Samiam, I believe thats why your as successfull in your business as you are. To say thanks to the LOCALS sounds wonderful. If more places thought that and showed it like you do, I believe more places would stay open. KUDO'S to you and your staff.
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10-31-2010, 09:18 AM | #55 | |
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So -- I may as well make my predictions here, too, knowing that my reputation could also be at risk if I'm wrong. Here goes:
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10-31-2010, 09:48 AM | #56 |
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I predict...
... the weather will continue to change on and off for a long long time.
Al Sleet |
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SteveA (10-31-2010) |
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