Winni Weather - winter 2007

[CanisLupusArctos]

Around New England, the weather is always a popular discussion topic, and that's especially true here "at the lake" where outdoor activities on or near the water, or nearby mountains, are a staple in everyday life. As a meteorology buff I decided it might be fun and beneficial to many if there was a seasonally-rotating weather thread in the forum.

Here it is - Winni Weather, the winter 2007 edition!

Use this thread to discuss local weather, post your (local) snowfall measurements, temperatures, wind gusts, storm damage reports, and other info. Ask your weather questions, get answers. If you're into weather, share your knowledge and links to your favorite online weather data.

And thus it begins... let's get that ice thickened up and pray for some blizzards to decorate it!

[Resident 2B]

CLA,

What a great idea!

I am also a weather buff and in the middle of an on-line weather certificate course through Penn State University. Boring to some, but something I always wanted to do.

I will monitor this link daily and add to it when I think it is approproate.

Keep up the great work. Nothing like our New England weather!

R2B

[DRH]

At just before 10:00 PM, the outside temperature in West Alton is +0.2 degs and the wind is blowing at 8 - 15 mph with gusts of about 20 mph.

The expected high temperature tomorrow isn't supposed to get much over 10 degs! I wonder how much ice the lake will "grow" over the next several days?

[Resident 2B]

If the wind does not "trash" the ice, and I do not think it will, then the wind should increase the heat transfer into the ice and increase the rate of thinkening the ice.

For the first time this year, it is very cold here in northern New England. The cold will relax a bit on Sunday, then re-establish itself for most of next week. The ice should stand up against the wind on Friday and early Saturday, then thicken a lot more next week, resulting in some great winter ice activities on the lake for the next four to seven weeks.

Please do not go out on any ice that is not at least 4 inches thick. Also, be aware that ice thickness can vary over very short distances, so make sure you know all local variations before getting on the ice.

Be safe!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

After such an abnormal December and January it sure is good to have the lake "back to it's old winter self,"-- freezing over, wind blowing, snow flying, arctic cold fronts passing, and all that other stuff they put in beer commercials.

Feast your eyes on the midnight temperature map from Plymouth State U's met program. All that cold air northwest of us will be transferring down here overnight and tomorrow. Check out Mount Washington at minus-27! No doubt the observers up there are hearing "building cracks" from their concrete walls tonight! I can't wait to hear the lake start cracking and booming, too, as the ice expands in the cold air, against an unforgiving shoreline. On the really cold nights it's enough to rattle the windows.

[pmj]

It is brrrrrrrurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry cold morning in Alton... -7 degrees...that is minus 7 below 0.

Resident2B, I am interested to learn more about your on line weather certificate course...is this open to anyone ?? I LOVE learning about weather and as a sailor it can come in very handy!

pmj

[SIKSUKR]

At 7:45am its -30.2 with a windchill of -78.3 on top of the rockpile.I think winter is finally here!

[Finder]

Ice contracts when it gets colder and expands when the sun hits it.

[HomeWood]

Accuweather says it's -4 in Moultonborough right now. Fantastic!!! If all goes right I'll be at the lake next Saturday or possibly Sunday!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Finder

Ice contracts when it gets colder and expands when the sun hits it.

That's the first time I've heard that - can anyone offer a quote from a physics textbook? I sold mine after college... I'm ready to stand corrected.

Water, as far as I know, becomes denser as it cools to +1 C, then, once in equilibrium at 0 C it starts expanding again (becoming less dense, allowing the solid state to float) - hence the reason ice makes things burst when it gets inside them. If ice expanded as it warmed (like most other solids do) then wouldn't it be impossible to thaw a frozen pipe without risking a burst?

At the lake, I wake up in the morning to find "pressure ridges" in the ice that formed overnight, as the ice became too big for the shoreline while cooling overnight.

R2B, I'm also interested in that online course!

[Resident 2B]

Since several people have asked about the on-line weather course, either through private messages or on this thread, I am supplying the following information.

Penn State University is known world-wide for their excellent meteorological programs. Many of the better weather forcasters are Penn State graduates including Joe Bastardi and Ellioit Abrams, both of Accu-Weather fame.

Penn State offers a certificate program in weather forecastng that is open to everyone. This is not a program where you work at your own pace. It is structured with course starting and completion times and although it is open to everyone, enrollment is limited. There are four sections to the course and each section costs about $1,350. No one said that Penn State was inexpensive!

Below is a link to their web site:

http://www.worldcampus.psu.edu/Weath...tificate.shtml

R2B

[Frank]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

That's the first time I've heard that - can anyone offer a quote from a physics textbook? I sold mine after college... I'm ready to stand corrected.

See http://www.chrismanual.com/Intro/prop.htm - ice gets slightly, very slighty, denser as it cools. The effect is tiny in the temperature range we experience in NH. The difference in density is about 0.3% as ice cools from 30 F to -20 F. Not a large effect, and nothing like the change in density from liquid water to ice.

[Finder]

One mile of open ice on the lake surface can expand by as much as three feet when the sun hits it. I've seen it happen. Freezing water expands and when it becomes solid contracts as it gets colder.

[SteveA]

This doesn't directly answer the question of whether the ice "shrinks or grows"

But good reading and safety tips.

http://www.yellowknife.ca/City_Hall/...Ice_Facts.html

[SteveA]

http://www.getsmarter.org/mstv/L3_c.cfm

[DRH]

The outside temp. here has not risen above 0 degs today. It's been very gusty all day, too, with winds averaging 15 - 25 mph and occasional gusts over 30 mph.

[Resident 2B]

If the wind drops off tonight, as I believe it will, with a clear sky and the dew point at -17 degrees, we are likely to see -10 to -12 degrees tonight around the lake. This is much colder than the NWS is forecasting. It all depends on the wind, but I am confident it will drop to calm and take the tempature way down.

This is great ice thinkening weather!

Go Derby!!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

You're right... Friday's high on Black Cat was just 2 degrees - many notches lower than the +10 they were forecasting. NWS-Gray has just admitted their conservatism in the forecast discussion by deviating from "warmer" computer model guidance for tonight's temps. They're now predicting -10 for Portland and a few places -30 in the mountains. Mount Washington won't be one of them - with radiational cooling taking place, the summit is -7, warmer than the valley. The NWS has also mentioned clouds moving in by morning, which would put a stop to any radiational cooling.

Tonight we've been down to -5 but we've been level at -2 since 2200. When I drove through Center Harbor earlier the MVSB clock said -7. I think the island is getting "warmed" by the lake again. The water underneath the ice is undoubtedly giving up some heat, allowing the ice to thicken.

Check out the imagery tonight. On tonight's temperature map, we have negative double-digits all to the NW of here in VT and upstate NY. The IR Sattelite pic shows the NW wind condensing over the warmer ocean waters.

BTW I'm still reading some of those articles posted about the physics of ice. Very interesting stuff! Makes me want to go back to college. Water is such a wierd substance, and that statement is just the tip of the iceberg. (*rim-shot*)

[CanisLupusArctos]

After flurrying all day Saturday and amounting to only a Trace, the overnight hours produced some measureable snow at Black Cat Island - a whopping 0.1 inch. The season's biggest snowfall to date remains the 4-incher on the 20th, which the NWS-Gray told me was a lake effect snow band from Lake Erie that survived the long trip and became enhanced by lift provided by the mountains behind Center Harbor as it moved in from the west. We've yet to see a phasing of the northern and southern jet streams close enough to the coast to bring us a good old-fashioned NH snowstorm, but little shots of snow keep coming as the moisture-starved systems dive out of Canada now that winter is here. Those mountains behind Center Harbor are certainly a help in this particular location.

[NightWing]

http://channels.isp.netscape.com/new...&floc=NI-ne3:D

[CanisLupusArctos]

Thank you, JTA, trfour, and others for all the encouragement on the weather & webcam stuff. I'm so glad you enjoy it.

Last night I made some cosmetic changes to the weather page and the webcam page. There are probably a few more changes to come, depending on what kind of inspiration I get.

Now for all who can't be here to witness winter on Winni, here's a video I recorded yesterday, for your meditation and relaxation. It's not exciting, nor is it meant to be. It's 9 minutes long and is good for unwinding - listen to the wind howl, the birds chirping, see the snow blowing and drifting, and concentrate on breathing deep & slow! You might even cue up some piano solos in your CD player while you watch - I didn't dub it in for reasons of copyright. Enjoy!

http://www.thesilentforest.com/Winni...eWinterDay.wmv

[Silver Duck]

Fabulous! Thanks a million for that!

Silver Duck

[Hermit Cover]

Is the Winnie Web the greatest...or what? If I could carry a tune I'd sing more praises for all that goes on on this site. Thanks for the short film....I just sent my son the link so he can appreciate what this winter at Winni is all about....Oh, by the way, he and his family live in Phoenix and he gets to drive two plus hours to Flagstaff to maybe see some snow in the "Winter"....He summered of the big lake in his youth but has yet to experience a winter on Winni. If there is an award for really great websites....this www should win hands down!!!! Thank you, thank you!!

[Weirs guy]

We just came in from a few hours on the lake in beautiful conditions! 32 degrees, light wind, sunny. What a great day out there, and not a lot of people around either.

I did try to get the Sophie C Gauge out to check the ice thickness, but the auger seems to have scared her away. I bet she leaves my toes alone tonight though...

[Grant]

CLA --

Thanks for the video. I was supposed to be up there this weekend, but events and schedules conspired against me, so this was a nice scratch for my itch. And the time lapse from last evening's sunset was spectacular. Thanks again.

[CanisLupusArctos]

... and I did notice last night's sunset series on the WeatherCam. I saved the best one for the gallery and let the rest get auto-deleted the next day.

Here's a tip for "Winni-WeatherLand:" Use Gatto Nero's Black Cat Island Cam and the Bear Island Cam to watch for storms approaching, and then use mine to watch them leave.

The Black Cat Island Cam faces SW and will show the approach of any winter weather system coming up the coast (the same systems will overtake my cam from the right).

In summertime the most freakishly violent thunderstorms usually come from the SW, in GN's cam view. All "normal" squalls come from the NW, in the Bear Island Cam's view (which is right nearby). Once the weather is upon us, you can watch it in any of the cams, and when it starts to move out my cam will show it leaving and let you know when the coast is clear again.

Of note today: The temperature on Black Cat hit 33 degrees, thus ending 34 consecutive days below freezing.

Now wasn't today's weather spectacular or what?? Who went skiing today? How are the conditions now? Anyone playing hookie this week to ski some more? Looks like the extreme cold pattern may be trying to change for the end of the week and become more normal for late February. Should make for some great ski days.

[SIKSUKR]

Thanks CLA for your hard work on the weather station cam.I was at Cannon skiing and the snow was good.The crowds were awfull though.Went thurs after the big snow and had a ball.Sat.was a nice mostly sunny day at Cannon but sunday brought kind of a freakish snowfall.We were forcast to get a little snow Sunday afternoon\night but it snowed like crazy Late Sunday morning/midday and we ended up with 6-7 inches!Nice surprize.Huge crowds again though.I would never take time off to ski this week (Mass school vaca)unless you like lots of company.At least the Mt is making some money.

[CanisLupusArctos]

That's right, thank you for reminding me it is Mass. School vacation week - not a good time to be on the slopes! Maybe I will stay home this week! That's OK, looks like each day this week will bring a few more inches of snow to the slopes and by later this week the arctic-cold pattern will be changing to something more comfy for skiing.

I did see someone XC-skiing on the lake ice today, as winds gusted over 50 and temps were around 10. My station's readings of wind can usually be multiplied x2 for an "out on the lake" estimate, at least when winds blow from the NW like they are today. They have to come across a good portion of the island before they reach my instruments, meanwhile I look out beyond the protected shoreline zone (extends out about 100 feet) and see clouds of snow tearing along at about the same speeds as sport fishing boats on a calm summer dawn.

[moose tracks]

Great Idea!
I check the Weirs Beach Weather web site almost every day. I like to track the weather conditions in the lakes region. Now I can check your thread also! Thanks,