[CanisLupusArctos]

Regardless of any efforts, two things always determine the outcome of any given situation like this: (1) Individual level mental health AND human nature; and (2) Cold, cruel finances. Those two things are in the minds of all high-level officials as they consider opening things up again. I really don't think the idea of opening up for Easter was ever serious. Certain things have to be suggested in order to keep people as calm as possible. Very likely they knew "lockdown" would require a couple months minimum, but that news would not have gone over very well. They started us off with "For a couple of weeks" and have gone incrementally from there.

Why? All high level officials get briefed on typical human reactions to certain things, and they all spend lots of time looking at budgets. They don't come out and deliver the cold realities because that produces horrible reactions. They know we can't stay like this or we WILL break, mentally and financially, and they know we can't jump back to the way we were, because the virus is waiting for that to happen. It is as if we are hiding from Africanized killer bees while holding our breath under Lake Winnipesaukee. They're waiting for us to come up because they know we have to. Sometimes life really sucks like that, and we're there now.

Mental health: Around the world right now, individuals ARE breaking down, and nothing can stop that without spreading the virus. My doctor had that conversation with me. Most methods for prevention of mental breakdown, conversion-to-irrationality, and suicide/homicide work against the prevention of diseases. That's "kind of a problem" right now. He admitted there's no point staying safe from a virus if it means you break down instead. He knows I've learned a lot in counseling (and finished) and told me to weigh that stuff with the virus prevention stuff at all times. Both are medical advice. Both are valid. They just happen to work against each other right now, and that sucks, for everyone. There's been plenty of documentation on what happens to normal people under certain circumstances. Civilians don't have military training to raise their tolerance for mental stress. We only have a stigma on mental health that's now screwing us over.

I KNOW firsthand that people who were "normal" before ARE going to be "off" for a while after this happens. "Loss of social skills" doesn't sound like a big deal, but it's one of the leading factors behind every mass shooting and other random acts of horror that no one can understand. When I was newly recovering, I went to every situation I'd known before, and failed miserably. I needed a friend to function as wing-man for the first couple of weeks. He'd stomp my foot if I got too chatty, forgot to shake hands, or committed other social violations. It took 4 months to get back to functioning independently and even then, a group of communications professors I met at a dinner presentation told me they could tell I wasn't 100% yet. They gave me a timeline for return-to-normal-function based on brain cell biology. Those same concepts WILL apply to every person who has mortal human brain cells. We've never been through a psychological scenario (some say "experiment") like this before, ever. So we can only make broad guesses about how people will be. They will NOT be popping back up unless they've been regularly socializing and mixing among others.

Finances: Mental health directly affects the economy. When people feel hopeless about the future, even if it's bright, the economy slumps. The governments of the world aren't going to tell everyone "it's hopeless because we're out of money," because that will incite a worldwide riot. They will try to ease people into the frigid water as the Titanic sinks. There are already signs in various news sources that "we can't keep a system alive much longer without loans or revenue." And the loan sources are drying up around the world because no one has much revenue anymore. Italian news has already mentioned the nation's debt situation very casually. Brits have been posting comments of wondering how long their NHS can stay at full throttle while the tanks are quickly running dry. The US has already seen casual headlines about funds running out. The IMF has already casually hinted at financial catastrophe. It's basic math: Our lifesaving systems require continuous support from a large number of people who are no longer able (or as able) to provide it.

Complications: The masses don't understand vaccines are NOT a cure-all. The flu vaccine is FAR from 100% effective. It's "better than nothing" and that's as good as it's ever been. That's why lots of people still get the flu after getting a shot for it.

The virus has demonstrated (A) an ability to mutate in a host (person) and come out slightly different from how it went in. It's also jumped from animals to humans and back into animals. Wildlife (including but not limited to rats) are moving into the spaces we left vacant. Rats in many cities are now following their noses to where people are generating garbage (home instead of public) and are hungry enough to try getting inside. They carry 55 different pathogens, and coronavirus might already be #56 for all we humans know. We'll be discovering such things in the months ahead. Coyotes are in and around NYC area. They have been known to mate with domestic dogs to create coydogs -- a rabies and maul hazard. Given that coronavirus found its way into a zoo tiger, the idea of a rabid corona coydog isn't far-fetched. These are the things nerds are considering. There's no guarantee they'll happen, but the virus has already shown its ability to make that a reality. We get to find out "yes or no" on the coyotes, rats, and 1,000 other dominoes in the months ahead. The ideal outcome is possible. Hear Clint Eastwood ask us all, "You feelin' lucky punk?"

We have no good options at the moment. Don't expect public announcements to say that. It's been that way in weather for many years. Forecaster discussions have always been the place to learn about the big storm far in advance while the public announcement does its best to pacify the audience until it's time to shout "Blizzard" or "Tornado." A lot of people don't know how to handle the technical explanations that deliver the truth, OR use the information to navigate through it. Tornadoes are approachable, but you MUST know them technically, inside and out or you will die. Same for house fires. Same for germs. People who work in biocontainment labs are the medical equivalent of *trained* storm chasers in meteorology, the same firefighters in 911. They all have training to work with hazards.

Now look around at the number of people using masks and gloves incorrectly. None of them are really protected. They don't know how to use PPE and are just wasting it. Examples: Touching your mask and then touching your face after taking it off -- whatever's on the mask is now on your face where it would've been if you hadn't worn a mask at all. Wearing rubber gloves to the supermarket and using your hands the same as you normally would -- you're still spreading germs to yourself and others, except with latex instead of your skin. People ditching used latex gloves in parking lots -- spreads the virus to anyone who might step on them, or a child who picks one up. Going gloveless and using hand sanitizer is better than tossing used gloves on the ground. That's a huge part of the problem -- we all need medical-grade TRAINING, not just medical grade PPE, and we have plenty of people in society who (no joke) can't manage a "boil water" order for 48 hours.

There are so many "oh crap" factors for this virus. The problem boils down to "on the one hand, we have (A), but then we also must consider (B). Sometimes, (C) will be a factor, and we must weigh the likelihood of (D).

We've become a society of debaters fighting in favor of (A) or (B), when either one will defeat the purpose of the other.

Inspiration: The most hopeful thing to say is a call-out to enterprising people of all thought levels: "Put opinions and emotions aside as much as possible, Get into scientific thinking, make lists of (A) through (D) and produce the solution of best outcome, remembering ideal isn't an option for anyone anymore."

Around the lake we've got some great minds, some outside-the-box thinkers (including innovative rednecks whose ideas are as valid as anyone else's in times like this), we have people inspired by the waves, the sunrises and sunsets, we've got high level people and people connected to high level people. Imagine if a major pandemic solution went into the history books as originating in a bunch of folks at Lake Winnipesaukee.