[Winilyme]

I've been wondering about the long term prospects of the housing industry in light of COVID. I think that one scenario is an upswing in relocations from urban areas to suburban or rural areas. Consider that for many years there's been a flight to urban centers as young and older folks alike were looking for the lifestyle choices afforded by larger metropolitan areas. In sleepy Hartford, CT of all places - which I'm quite familiar with - a lot of new apartment construction and many new renovations to turn older buildings into desirable apartments have occurred over the last twenty years. All in the name of suburban flight to the city. I'm also familiar with NYC where this trend has gone to the extreme where many previously affordable neighborhoods have been gentrified at the expense of lower income residents. Countless other cities have experienced similar trends.

But with COVID, I'm thinking that (maybe lots of) folks are suddenly having second thoughts about living in such close quarters with one another. Restaurants and outdoor spaces filled cheek by jowl with people suddenly doesn't seem so inviting. There will be a temptation to retreat. They are seeing, and liking, blue skies that are no longer filled with smog. They're experiencing that they can in many cases work from almost anywhere. They are considering the record low mortgage rates and the fact that with COVID-gutted savings, they're likely to find affordability anywhere but in the city. Also on their minds - the suggestion by some experts that we'll see a resurgence of this virus at least in the near term. If you are remotely interested in getting out of a city, wouldn't now be the time? If you want to relocate somewhere special, wouldn't the Lakes Region be the place?

As a result of all of this, will we see an increase in new housing starts and existing house sales as the flight into cities reverses? Could this result in an increase of real estate values that are already high? Will folks in Boston decide to live here full time? Will a demand for new housing result in less affordable options and will new housing developments encroach on the natural resources that make this area so desirable? All are questions I don't have the answer to but as I've said in at least one previous post, the new normal is not going to be the same as the old.