Quote:
Originally Posted by eyenotall777
Thank you for all your responses. It seems as though most weather buffs, not just here, are being very guarded in the forecast area for Tuesday  It seems like a tricky one. So if the further east the track goes, the more chance of snow? The snow has been setting up just right for all kinds of winter sports. It would be just a "bummer"!!!!
PLEASE......"EVERYONE DO A SNOW DANCE"  |
Guarded...no. Tricky...yes.
As has been mentioned here, there are many different forecast models in use. With many storms (if not all storms) each model has a different solution for the storm in question. It is up to the meterologist (or weather buff like us) to interpret the models to determine what the storm might do. This interpretation is based on several things, such as past performance of the models, the current atmospheric conditions, in depth knowledge of the forecast area, or just plain instinct. Yes, instinct. Sometimes the weather guys just go with their gut.
I will give you an example. This past storm, the Fox 25 weather guy (Kevin L) was on air saying that the model was saying the storm was going to go west a bit, but he was going with his gut, that it was going to stay south and east. Well, it turned out he was wrong. But that is not always the case.
Anyway, this winter, the Euro model (ECMWF) has been pretty accurate in it's medium ranges. Up until last night, the Euro had next weeks storm going as far west as the Great Lakes. This would have us in rain (rain even up into southern Quebec! However the other models have had the storm farther east. Now, the Euro last night came in, and it moved the storm substantially to the east. Of course the storm is still 4 days out, so anything can happen. But the models are starting to come into their more accurate range, and are also starting to agree with each other.
Will it go east, giving us all snow?
Will it go west, giving us all rain?
Or will it go somewhere in between, giving us snow to ice to rain?
No one knows. We can guess, but we won't know for sure until the storm is over.
PS...wanna see a guarded forecast? Check out this mornings discussion at WHDH channel 7.
http://www1.whdh.com/weather/ Look at the bottom, where it says "Disclosure". Yesterday the mets there were saying wind, rain, and 50 degrees in Boston. Now she is basically saying that may not be accurate.