Quote:
Originally Posted by thinkxingu
Does your decrease in LPR include the large population of baby boomers that have moved to retirement? I gotta think the size of that generation leaving the workforce would easily affect percentages over a decade?
Sent from my XT1528 using Tapatalk
|
At the serious risk of hijacking this thread, it's not that simple.
A baby boom is an increase in birth RATE. From Wikipedia, 1945 - 1961, 65 million born, about 4 million per year.
While the birth RATE is lower now, the population base is higher. In 2015 (latest full data I found) about 4 million were born. For a rough reckoning, the replacement numbers entering the labor force are about equal to retirees, even for the boomer crowd.
Of course it is far more complex. WHEN do baby boomers retire, age 53 (I did), 60? 75? WHEN exactly do current workers enter the workforce, age 18 (high school)?, 22 (4 yr college)?, 26 (masters)?, 30+ (PhD)?, 40 (when mommy kicks them out of the basement)?
However, average yearly discrepancies are more likely to be in terms of maybe 100,000 or so in pure body count, not millions. Further, as population grows, unless there is a dearth in the birth rate, the number of new births will continue to increase and balance out retirees. It's actually a bit of a Ponzi scheme as long as reasonable amounts of kids are born. I saw one projection for the end of the baby boom retirees around 2030 to have a 4.2 million births in a population of 359 million. The numbers only increase from there.
Replacements are on the way, get your orders in now.
