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CanisLupusArctos · 02-11-2008, 06:52 PM

This scenario has happened before, in this winter. I forget which storm it was, because there've been so many, but we should look closely at what happened in order to figure this one out.

There is low pressure moving up to our west. A secondary low is forecast to get going off the NJ coast and move along the shoreline. The first low will bring up warm air that will threaten to change the snow to mix/ice/rain. The second low will be on the other side of us, giving us its cold sector.

So the question is, will the coastal low get strong enough to keep the other one from bringing in too much warm air? If I remember correctly, the last time this scenario happened (this winter) the coastal low got stronger than the models predicted and kept pulling cold air down at the lower levels. As a result, we never went over to plain rain, as the models were insisting would happen.

At this point, we have so much liquid locked up in the existing snowpack that any sudden change to spring weather (or melting rains) will not be a good thing. Since the snowpack formed on Dec. 3 we've had over 7 inches of precip, most of which is still on the ground as snow. For comparison, the May 2006 floods produced just over 6 inches of rain over a period of several days.

02-11-2008, 06:52 PM	#6
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	this has happened before This scenario has happened before, in this winter. I forget which storm it was, because there've been so many, but we should look closely at what happened in order to figure this one out. There is low pressure moving up to our west. A secondary low is forecast to get going off the NJ coast and move along the shoreline. The first low will bring up warm air that will threaten to change the snow to mix/ice/rain. The second low will be on the other side of us, giving us its cold sector. So the question is, will the coastal low get strong enough to keep the other one from bringing in too much warm air? If I remember correctly, the last time this scenario happened (this winter) the coastal low got stronger than the models predicted and kept pulling cold air down at the lower levels. As a result, we never went over to plain rain, as the models were insisting would happen. At this point, we have so much liquid locked up in the existing snowpack that any sudden change to spring weather (or melting rains) will not be a good thing. Since the snowpack formed on Dec. 3 we've had over 7 inches of precip, most of which is still on the ground as snow. For comparison, the May 2006 floods produced just over 6 inches of rain over a period of several days.