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jeffk · 10-08-2016, 11:29 AM

It seems to me that predicting a hurricane's path is similar to predicting a big Nor'easter in the winter. How much snow will fall where and how bad the winds will howl is dependant on where the bands set up and how much the storm wobbles as it approaches. A 20 mile wobble can make a huge difference. A snow band that stays in one place can hugely impact the snow total.

The problem is the weather services like to pretend they can provide a level of predictability that is just not possible. All this is based on multiple computer models. The models don't agree so they try to "average out" the results. A little while back, a storm's models all seemed to coalesce. An excited weather announcer stated "that's CONVERGENCE" which for some reason implied to her, certainty. The storm did something different. The models mostly agreed and they were WRONG.

The best "certainty" for this storm as it approached Haiti was probably that "Matthew would soon impact the southeast coast of the US with hurricane force winds". Last night, they were predicting that the winds would still be at around 110 MPH this morning. They are at 75 MPH. The difference between a minimal category 3 to barely a hurricane. The expected damage difference between these winds speeds is significant. Could you shelter in place for a category 1 storm, possibly. Should you try to weather out a category 3 storm? No way.

Prudence would dictate you prepare for the worst and celebrate that it may not have happened. Katrina, a category 3 at landfall, was ill prepared for and because of the unexpected levee breaks had a more severe outcome. Government failed to convince people to leave the area to be safe. It's amazing that people could be that stupid and that many more people weren't killed.

I think it's pointless to discuss expected damage prior to impact in a certain area and the lack of it in the aftermath. I also think it's silly to be claiming that damage is $$$$ dollars at this point and put much faith in the numbers. It's going to take time (weeks?, months?) to assess.

It was a bad storm. It killed people, some who probably should have gotten out of its path, and it did a lot of damage. Hopefully good relief efforts are well under way. Rebuilding will take time and money.

God bless those who have been hurt by it.

10-08-2016, 11:29 AM	#23
jeffk Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,130 Thanks: 201 Thanked 421 Times in 239 Posts	Guessing game It seems to me that predicting a hurricane's path is similar to predicting a big Nor'easter in the winter. How much snow will fall where and how bad the winds will howl is dependant on where the bands set up and how much the storm wobbles as it approaches. A 20 mile wobble can make a huge difference. A snow band that stays in one place can hugely impact the snow total. The problem is the weather services like to pretend they can provide a level of predictability that is just not possible. All this is based on multiple computer models. The models don't agree so they try to "average out" the results. A little while back, a storm's models all seemed to coalesce. An excited weather announcer stated "that's CONVERGENCE" which for some reason implied to her, certainty. The storm did something different. The models mostly agreed and they were WRONG. The best "certainty" for this storm as it approached Haiti was probably that "Matthew would soon impact the southeast coast of the US with hurricane force winds". Last night, they were predicting that the winds would still be at around 110 MPH this morning. They are at 75 MPH. The difference between a minimal category 3 to barely a hurricane. The expected damage difference between these winds speeds is significant. Could you shelter in place for a category 1 storm, possibly. Should you try to weather out a category 3 storm? No way. Prudence would dictate you prepare for the worst and celebrate that it may not have happened. Katrina, a category 3 at landfall, was ill prepared for and because of the unexpected levee breaks had a more severe outcome. Government failed to convince people to leave the area to be safe. It's amazing that people could be that stupid and that many more people weren't killed. I think it's pointless to discuss expected damage prior to impact in a certain area and the lack of it in the aftermath. I also think it's silly to be claiming that damage is $$$$ dollars at this point and put much faith in the numbers. It's going to take time (weeks?, months?) to assess. It was a bad storm. It killed people, some who probably should have gotten out of its path, and it did a lot of damage. Hopefully good relief efforts are well under way. Rebuilding will take time and money. God bless those who have been hurt by it.