If you want a discussion of "facts",
HERE is a good article that clearly discusses the difficulty of getting useful information at this time.
It has nothing to do with who is speaking or where they get their numbers or their reliability or smartness. There are simply too many moving parts and too much uncertainty to get numbers to plug in that give accurate answers. Garbage in (even if you think the numbers going in are right, they are not, per the article), Garbage out. This is being verified by the experts as their expectations are NOT being borne out by boots on the ground realities.
We do not know if this is going to be a typical seasonal flu impact or a bad pandemic. We do not know if the reaction to it is too much, too little, or just right. People are digging in to pick "winners" or "losers" of intentions or reactions based on personal favorites and politics. We CANNOT decide certainties based on data because the data and models based on it is shifting sand.
My gut tells me that the extremes are wrong. We will struggle but it will not be a disaster. We need to be nimble and react to changing realities. We need to work on being prepared.
In the end, those who were "right" about the course of this virus will be so because of luck, not knowledge.