Natural gas has already jumped in price... but not because we are producing less... but because we are exporting more to Europe and using more domestically for all the chemicals we need to keep the economy going at this pace.
As natural gas prices increase, what can be turned over to less expensive oil, is turned over.
If you look at the ISO-NE, you would see oil consumption for electric generation... something we didn't have in the recent past due to the low cost of natural gas making oil generation too expensive to contemplate.
You would also see us using more coal. It take longer to fire up the coal plant than the oil... but the coal is less expensive than the oil.
https://www.energy.gov/articles/trum...port-term-2050
Not sure you can see that article on this one...
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ia-2022-02-24/
So we may be exporting more crude in the future.