Models....
The modeling first presented show worse case scenario, no social distancing, then with social distancing at 50% compliance and this greater levels of compliance. The number of infected and deaths dropped substantially by the level of increased compliance.
The flue data is an annual number. If the worse case scenario (no nothing) projected 3000 deaths per day, that would be 180,000 in 2 months and would increase incrementality each month.
So the good news is with social distancing the numbers are averaging 1000 deaths per day. That is 60,000 in two months or 180,000 in 6 months.
I think it is much to early to state the models got it wrong. Also, as previously stated, China's numbers can not be trusted. In the U.S. people that have died in nursing homes or at home from Covid 19 or related causes are NOT being included in the numbers as of yet, although CDC has issued updated guidelines about death certificate completions.
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