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Old 07-11-2020, 05:37 PM   #30
umbrellapoint
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Default expected # of boats that pass too close to a swim raft

Nerding out just a little bit....

The expected number of boats that will buzz your swim dock per day, on average =

[1 -
(
Probability that the average boater is informed about the 150' rule *
Probability that the average boater can reasonably estimate 150' *
Probability that the average boater cares to observed it *
)
] *
total number of boats that pass by your place per day, on average


Assuming a high probability for each case ( e.g. 95% ), still means that ~15% of boats will not obey the 150' rule. If roughly 100 boats pass by your swim raft on a busy Saturday, you'd should expect 15 or so, on average, to be too close. This would not be evenly spread across the day, but concentrated in the main boating hours ( ~12PM - 5PMish ), so you would see a couple per hour too close --- and that is with a high % of conformity/adherence to the rules.

If there is a high rental weekend, with a less experienced boating population, the actual probabilities may be closer to 80%. The would mean a little less than half of the boaters break the 150' rule. With 100 boats/day, this means ~50 boats too close and an almost constant stream of boats buzzing your raft during peak boating times.

You can pretty much estimate the actual probabilities just by counting the boats that go by your place vs the boats that go by "too close".

To lower the number of boats that break the 150' rule, you can address each of the above probabilities:

1.) increased testing / certification to increase the chance someone, who may be an experienced boater, but inexperienced in NH, is aware of the 150' rule.

2.) additional markers/indicators, particularly in high traffic areas, to better delineate 150' from closest object.

3.) increase MP presence/enforcement in areas with both greatest abuse of 150' rule and most chance of injury and/or property damage by the 150' rule not being observed.

Each of the three costs the state time and money and benefits accrue mostly to a very few # of waterfront property owners, of which a significant portion live out of state and do not vote. So, you would need a way, other than voting, to incentivize the state the address these issues.
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