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Old 06-01-2020, 07:11 AM   #4
Lakegeezer
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Default Scenario planning infomation

The linked report from the CDC was not dated, but appears to have been published around May 20'th. Some interesting data there. Not official numbers, but best estimates to be used for scenario planning. What caught my eye was the best estimate for R0, the spreading ratio. They set it at 2.5, meaning on average, those who catch it spread it to 2.5 people. That is a recipe for a return to epidemic growth. A low ratio of deaths among those with symptoms is still a problem if 10's of millions more people catch it.

There is a epidemic calculator at https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/ where you can plug in the CDC numbers and come up with your own scenarios. After playing with it for a while, it appears that there are scenarios where the lakes region is not out of the woods yet, having seen less than 15% of what the total death count could be.

The paper is worth a read though. New information about time from exposure to symptoms, infectious period, percentage with no symptoms, hospital stay lengths and some morbidity topics.
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