[ApS]

(My comments in red).

Originally Posted by Lakegeezer

"...Rather than projections, why not look at where we are today compared to 15 years ago.

1. The water clarity and purity has decreased significantly in 15 years. Where is the loss of revenue?
   
   The first use of milfoil in aquariums was to hide newborns and fry from predators. Bass, at least, manage well in the waters of murky southern lakes which are loaded with exotic milfoil. Expect a net gain of revenue from visiting fishermen.
   
   Any loss of revenue would be due to the growth of milfoil in popular swimming/rafting areas or where replacements of tear-downs "doesn't happen" due to milfoil. Visiting boaters could care less about water quality/clarity, and might even appreciate a lake full of blue anti-freeze instead!
   
   There might be a net gain of revenue here from degradation: the number of permanent lakeside swimming pools installed is on the increase!
   
   
2. We have already had changes in water levels and flows. Three 100 year floods in 18 months and wildly running rivers. Can the damage be calculated (beyond repairing washed out roads)?
   
   Every cubic yard of dirt, duff, loam, fertilizer and mulch that gets washed from driveways and roadsides ends up eventually as undesirable pollutants and silt "downhill"—and gets replaced with still more of the same every year. Silt is milfoil's favorite home.
   
   A rough way to calculate runoff damage would be to total all the cubic yards of replacement dirt, loam, soil, fertilizer, rip-rap and mulch purchased "uphill".
   
   While tourism is not largely affected, this Spring's rain/snowmelt damage to docks is a net increase to the state's employment numbers—and revenue. Landslide damage to shorelines this year is disturbing.
   
   
3. Changes in natural views and scenery have already occurred. Red hill and the Ossipee mountains have development where there was none. Ridges along the Western shore of Winnipesaukee have been adorned with condos. Has this decreased spending?
   
   If enough forest is cut down, you can see the lake better—increasing revenue.
   
   
4. We have increased crowding of the few good rafting spots, but how the heck can more people cost $19M in declined tourist dollars?

The languid town of Tuftonboro builds about 80 new homes every year, while buying land for public "open-spaces". That is a net gain of revenue on the "quiet side" of Lake Winnipesaukee. It's being lost elsewhere.

Call me skeptical, but if the study showed that the Lakes Region economy would be $51 million richer today if the quality of the lakes and development were as they were 15 years ago, I'd be more inclined to buy their projections into the future.

An ongoing 15-year peak in crowd revenue, such as "Bike Month" probably sours some tourists and new wealthy year-round residents from the region. How many potential "Meredith Bay" (Akwa Soleil) homesite-buyers will be repulsed by the noisy crowds during the month of June?

How do you compute a net tourism gain or loss from such passing events that involve crowds totally uninvolved in lakewater quality—and are even invisibly contributing to the lake's degradation?