Winnipesaukee Forum - View Single Post - Winni Weather

CanisLupusArctos · 02-02-2007, 03:23 PM

Happy Groundhog Day. Jeremy Reiner on WHDH-7 (Boston) just announced that the groundhog has about a 40% accuracy record, but I think Al Roker on NBC-Today said it best this morning: "They have 200 TV camera lights - how can they tell if he saw his shadow?"

Now to today's weather in the Lakes Region. Temps have risen to the upper 20s on Black Cat Island, with winds blowing from the SW (warm & more humid direction.) Skies are cloudy and snow appears on the radar over PA/NY state moving NEward. Based on radar & models I think it'll get here around 7 pm and begin accumulating almost as soon as it starts.

The models are showing an average of .25 inch (liquid equiv.) for the state, with lower amounts near the MA border and higher amounts for the mountains. Average liquid-to-snow ratio seems to be about 20:1 for the state with 25:1 possible (as R2B mentioned) and maybe 15:1 for the MA border. If I were to play it conservative I'd use the 20:1 ratio and guess .30" liquid equiv for the Lakes Region, which comes out to 6 inches snowfall.

We also might see some minor mountain enhancement, like we saw from the Squams/Belknaps/Ossipees on Jan 20 when an "inch or less" was predicted but we ended up with 4 inches (our biggest "storm" this season.) Another factor is that the ground is very cold from recent weather and I don't think any snowflakes will be wasted in "priming" it for accumulation.

An outlying possibility continues to be a lake-effect snow band from Upstate NY surviving the trip to NH. NWS-Burlington is talking about possible thundersnow with the upcoming lake-effect event, which means powerful snow squalls that would have the potential to make that trip and add an inch to what we're already getting.

With all that said, I wouldn't be surprised if we did end up with a few spot-totals of 7 inches tonight, although I have a hard time imagining it given the way this winter has been. I know I'm going out on a limb... However, the trend this morning has been for "upped" totals as this thing approaches, so I'll forecast 4 to 7 inches for the Lakes Region, with any 7-inch amounts (if they occur) near the mountains, and the 4-inches around Laconia.

After this thing passes the headline becomes BRRRRRR! Monday looks to be the coldest day of next week and perhaps of the winter - I'll go with +3 for a high (on Black Cat Island), and windy too.

The last cold blast on January 26 gave Black Cat a daytime high of +4 with a low of -5 and temperatures were below zero for all but 3 hours of that day... and this one looks about the same or slightly cooler.

If you're planning anything in the mountains Sun-Tues, now's a good time to re-think: The summits will likely not rise above -10, with the highest summits even colder, and NW winds of 75+ mph above treeline.

CLA

02-02-2007, 03:23 PM	#41
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Six inches? Happy Groundhog Day. Jeremy Reiner on WHDH-7 (Boston) just announced that the groundhog has about a 40% accuracy record, but I think Al Roker on NBC-Today said it best this morning: "They have 200 TV camera lights - how can they tell if he saw his shadow?" Now to today's weather in the Lakes Region. Temps have risen to the upper 20s on Black Cat Island, with winds blowing from the SW (warm & more humid direction.) Skies are cloudy and snow appears on the radar over PA/NY state moving NEward. Based on radar & models I think it'll get here around 7 pm and begin accumulating almost as soon as it starts. The models are showing an average of .25 inch (liquid equiv.) for the state, with lower amounts near the MA border and higher amounts for the mountains. Average liquid-to-snow ratio seems to be about 20:1 for the state with 25:1 possible (as R2B mentioned) and maybe 15:1 for the MA border. If I were to play it conservative I'd use the 20:1 ratio and guess .30" liquid equiv for the Lakes Region, which comes out to 6 inches snowfall. We also might see some minor mountain enhancement, like we saw from the Squams/Belknaps/Ossipees on Jan 20 when an "inch or less" was predicted but we ended up with 4 inches (our biggest "storm" this season.) Another factor is that the ground is very cold from recent weather and I don't think any snowflakes will be wasted in "priming" it for accumulation. An outlying possibility continues to be a lake-effect snow band from Upstate NY surviving the trip to NH. NWS-Burlington is talking about possible thundersnow with the upcoming lake-effect event, which means powerful snow squalls that would have the potential to make that trip and add an inch to what we're already getting. With all that said, I wouldn't be surprised if we did end up with a few spot-totals of 7 inches tonight, although I have a hard time imagining it given the way this winter has been. I know I'm going out on a limb... However, the trend this morning has been for "upped" totals as this thing approaches, so I'll forecast 4 to 7 inches for the Lakes Region, with any 7-inch amounts (if they occur) near the mountains, and the 4-inches around Laconia. After this thing passes the headline becomes BRRRRRR! Monday looks to be the coldest day of next week and perhaps of the winter - I'll go with +3 for a high (on Black Cat Island), and windy too. The last cold blast on January 26 gave Black Cat a daytime high of +4 with a low of -5 and temperatures were below zero for all but 3 hours of that day... and this one looks about the same or slightly cooler. If you're planning anything in the mountains Sun-Tues, now's a good time to re-think: The summits will likely not rise above -10, with the highest summits even colder, and NW winds of 75+ mph above treeline. CLA