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Originally Posted by SIKSUKR
I'm just stating what I think is in fact the almost impossible task of estimating snowfall amounts in certain locations in NE days in advance.
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How right you are! New England has the most unpredictable weather in the world. While most places get their weather from one or two directions all the time, we're a rare spot in the fact that THREE major storm tracks intersect here, and a fourth one sometimes jumps into the action when storms decide to "retrograde" -- back in off the ocean instead of moving out normally ("The Perfect Storm" of 1991 did that.) We can get air masses originating from the North Pole, the Gulf of Mexico, the US Continent, and the North Atlantic - all in one day.
For that reason there is a study called AIRMAP which is run by UNH and supported by NOAA which is attempting to measure New Engand's patterns for the purpose of making a New England weather model (and air quality.) There are several AIRMAP sites in a South-North line, ascending in elevation, and one of them is at Castle Springs in Moultonborough.
Even this model, however, will never be perfect. Aside from needing "The initial state of the earth's atmosphere", all models also would need to account for the very TINY details that make a huge imact on the weather - like farm fields creating less friction on a storm system than buildings. Even if they did program that info into the models, what would happen when developers bought the fields? Now the multi-trillion dollar super-high resolution weather model needs to be updated by local planning boards (maybe not literally, but you get the point.)
Speaking of models, the latest run seems to be trending tomorrow's snow farther offshore... *sob*
Well at least it still looks like record cold for next week to thicken the ice and help make more snow at the ski areas. R2B the nice thing about being primed for a storm like this is that sooner or later, something's gotta give! Or at least that's how I like to think.
