At our January meeting, we discussed the festival, and unanimously felt that with right at a month to go, and at the time no ice to be seen in the bay, the likelihood of having sufficient ice to accomodate a large group of people, and possibly a large group of airplanes, was highly unlikely.
Rather than have folks make reservations to come up, we felt it prudent to cancel, and then if folks still want to come up and enjoy the lake that weekend,, safe ice or not, they could make that decision.
I didn't even bring up full moon snowshoe walks, because again at the time, we had no snow!!! If we are able to something in February, we can announce it via the Baysider, the sign board at Parks and Rec, and I can do a posting. So far, the little snow doesn't even say "Let's go snowshoeing".
Happy winter, and keep a good thought for a safe and successful fishing derby.