One of the issues in determining what to do about the lake level is the general impact of rain/no rain and subsequent drought conditions.
Right now the US drought map shows the lakes region in Severe drought.
Historic impacts of this level of drought have been:
Fish kills occur; wildlife move to farms for food
Golf courses conserve water
Producers begin feeding cattle; hay prices are high
Specialty crops are impacted in both yield and fruit size
Trees are brittle and susceptible to insects
Warnings are issued on outdoor burns; air quality is poor
Water quality is poor; groundwater is declining; irrigation ponds are dry; outdoor water restrictions are implemented
This seems NOT to fit current conditions.
In fact, even the historic results of Moderate drought and even Abnormally Dry seem not to significantly apply, except perhaps that groundwater levels are on the low side in some areas.
If we can't accurately determine the conditions, our expectations and choices will not line up with reality.
As to adjusting the dam output, we are currently about 1 1/2" above Full. We are expecting about .6" in rain tomorrow. Just a rough estimate, but, with the ground still fairly damp from the spring melt, that will probably raise the lake another 1 1/2" to a total of 3" over Full. That is usually when people start mentioning problems. The dam is still running at minimum. Maybe it is past time to open it up a bit (700 cfs?) in anticipation of the rain coming tomorrow and drop it back in a few days to maintain the level at just slightly over full for the time being, maybe until the end of June.
I respect that dam management is not as straightforward as 1 + 1 = 2 but it seems we are too reactionary instead of anticipatory.
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