I wonder if a better strategy to lake level management could be applied? For example, if the lake is at a "good" level right now and a big storm is very likely to drop 4" in a week from now, adjust the dam to drop the lake 2" before the storm arrives. After the storm, evaluate how much rain actually fell and continue adjust as needed. If 2" fell, you're done. If 4" fell, you continue for another week. If the storm fizzled out, cut the dam output to minimum to recover the 2", if possible.
There are obviously other factors, like if the lake is already too low, just wait. It the lake is already too high, maybe dump more than half the expected amount. Also, maybe the target "good" levels need to be reexamined; a slower drawdown at first, and then faster at the end.
You can still get burned by extremes, like the last two years, but maybe the impact could be reduced.
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