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Originally Posted by Orion
Looking at the bow configuration, if the Mount was making a turn and it was still very windy that night, the wind could pocket in that space between the upper and lower decks ahead of that bulkhead, and create a gust which could catch someone off guard as it went through the turn. Winds were still around 15-20 mph at that time. Maybe a costume which could catch the wind as well?
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Viable conclusion, except it's basically a straight shot between Rattlesnake Island and Welch Island. The incident seems to have happened near Welch Island, which would not lend credence to a turning scenario. From Welch Island, the Mount would travel between Timber Island and the Witches, Governor and Eagle Islands, and on toward the Weirs.
It's still a sad situation, whatever the cause.