Quote:
Originally Posted by phoenix
this could be a tough year to predict ice out. One would assume real early but if cold weather hits late feb and march could slide into April
|
I'm not really a weather guy, but I think ice out is more a factor of February and March more than anything. Unless we have an unseasonably warm winter, the water eventually gets to roughly the same low temp and develops a thick ice layer. It's the ides of March that factor ice-out more than the lead-in (again, IMO).
Right now the experimental long-term forecast looks like we will have an "average" winter:
My very speculative guess right now is that ice-out will fall right around the median date in the 3rd week of April.