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Old 01-08-2016, 01:09 PM   #10
brk-lnt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phoenix View Post
this could be a tough year to predict ice out. One would assume real early but if cold weather hits late feb and march could slide into April
I'm not really a weather guy, but I think ice out is more a factor of February and March more than anything. Unless we have an unseasonably warm winter, the water eventually gets to roughly the same low temp and develops a thick ice layer. It's the ides of March that factor ice-out more than the lead-in (again, IMO).

Right now the experimental long-term forecast looks like we will have an "average" winter:


My very speculative guess right now is that ice-out will fall right around the median date in the 3rd week of April.
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