The computer guidance seems to be settling on a track that takes the eye of Irene from a landfall near New York City (!!) up the Connecticut River: Hartford, Springfield, Lebanon, Littleton... and then into southern Quebec where it will lose its tropical characteristics and just be "a storm."
There is still some uncertainty about THIS track, but the margin of error is becoming less with every run of the computer models.
It appears that the storm's CENTER (eye) will track to our WEST.
IF that happens, we will be on the windy side of the system, where the wind comes up from the south. On that side of a tropical system, there is more wind damage and less rain. There is an increased chance of tornadoes.
Tornadoes are a part of most tropical systems. That is because air and water behave according to the same principles. When you paddle through the water, you may create big swirls in the water. If a swirl is big enough, you may see smaller swirls coming off of it, and spinning around it. The same thing happens in the air, on a larger scale. The center of a hurricane is like a giant swirl, and it's common for smaller ones to spin off of it.
Tornadoes that occur with hurricanes and tropical storms don't usually get to "Great Plains" strength like the EF-5 we saw in Joplin MO earlier this year. However, an EF-2 like we had in NH back in 2008 would not be out of the question.
Back in 2004 the
remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie produced a tornado over Meredith that became a waterspout over Meredith Bay. Sucking up all that water (which is heavy) is probably what killed it. It was on a path that would've taken it across Meredith Neck toward
Black Cat Island. Instead, my weather station got an extremely heavy rainfall, quite suddenly. Looking back on it, I now wonder how much of that was actually rain that formed in the atmosphere, and how much of it was lake water coming back down.
To the WEST of the hurricane's eye, we can expect record rainfall but less wind. That will be falling on many areas that are already "topped off" for groundwater. The NYC area, for instance, has had a ton of rain lately. Bottom line: "River's gonna rise..."
Local effects from this storm will be easier to foretell tomorrow when the track becomes as certain as it's going to be prior to hitting. At the moment I would say expect strong winds from the southeast, shifting to south and then southwest (strongest), then to west (clearing) and finally northwest (decreasing, becoming chilly). That is all based on the forecast track issued 5 pm by the NHC.