Ice-Out 2012
 

Welcome to the Official 2012 Ice-Out thread. The lake temperature reached 38 degrees this morning. Ice-out has occured in recent years from 39-41 degrees as reported by the Winnipesaukee Dataphone at the Lakeport Dam. You can also observe the 2 ft and 10 ft temps rising at http://www.blackcatnh.com/ (just under the Black Cat Island Weather Cam picture)

The lake is covered with new snow this morning, but that is just Mother Nature trying to confuse us!

The ice out page is up at www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm where you can watch the ice melt. Unfortunately Snake Eyes did not come back when the power was restored to Rattlesnake Island this month. She needs a reboot and no one is able to get to the island to do that.

Post your observations, concerns, pictures and whatever else comes to mind re: ice-out. It looks to be another record early melt!

Click to see the lake 13 days before iceout in 2010, http://www.nhboat.com/Nhboat/Feature...ce-3-12-10.JPG


IG

The Black Cat Cam is really showing some expanding open water areas today.

My Favorite Annual Thread!
 

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1329936609
WeirsCam

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1329936006
Lake Winnipesaukee Weather Cam (Black Cat Cam)

Water Temperature at 2 ft: 36.3 °F

Water Temperature at 10 ft: 38.8 °F

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1329936097
Minge Cove Webcam

I have a report that Silver Lake in Hollis is ice free. Historically speaking, it has been one week ahead of Lake Winnipesaukee since I have been paying attention.
I suspect this may not be the case, though last year I thought the same thing and it was a one week spread. Regardless, all indicators seem to point to another historic ice-out!!!

Much as I'd like it, and despite the temps, it IS still February. Longer range forecasts show some pretty cold nights coming up next week. While it may start breaking up, I think we're going to have ice around for awhile.

Today's satellite photo with the feather dusting of snow shows just how much of the lake has as least "some" ice on it. I suspect it is very thin in some spots. Sorry for the clouds. I can't control that. The lake is dead center.

BT

IG,

Sorry for the PM. I see the correlation you are trying to make.

BT

Silver Lake Indicator
 

My spotter was wrong. Silver Lake in Hollis is about 3/4 ice free. Should be out by Friday. Come on ice-out!

Thanks IG
 

I've been waiting for this! I was actually going to post some iceout related observations this AM, but I didn't want to be presumptuous, no worries now. Canobie Lake in Salem and another small nameless pond are typical measures I use for iceout on Winni and they are usually ice free 2 to 3 weeks before. Canobie had a lot of open water (couldn't see the whole thing) and the little pond was totally clear. Not sure if that will hold true this year with it being so early, but it sure is nice to see. Better call the insurance company and change the my in water date :)

I was in Alton today. Lots of standing water on the bay and some good cracks with water opening about half way down. It looks very porous just past Loon Cove.

The cam at Downings is showing some ice chunking up. Still lots of bob houses on the bay- I think if they are not off by the beginning of the week they may be bobbing!

Silver Lake indicator
 

Typically how long after Silver lake is Winnipesaukee?

Forget the question, didn't see it in the post above, sorry.

Time to get the boat ready!!!

Rowboat and sailboats, yes! With the way gas prices are, I'm not sure how often the big boat will leave the dock. ; )

i know one thing
Sand bars will be extra busy this year, get there early

also wont be much boating in chop

Maybe not
 

People still have to get from point A to point B. With gas prices going up (one MASS station was already at $4.19 this morning) many might elect not to venture this far for vacation. :eek:
Of course maybe some of the vacation places might actually have to drop their prices this summer to attract people up. It is hard to believe how many will complain about not having business and never once consider dropping their prices to attract business. Something is always better then nothing. :cool:
One good thing is with the timing of the fuel price increases there is a really good chance that I will get to see diesel fuel priced lower then regular gas. This will only happen during the summer when home heating oil demand is down. So it might be cheaper to drive my diesel then my gas vehicle. Bike will be out really soon though. :D

If the lake does not rise we will be standing in the sand with out the water :eek:

Two signs of early Spring today,

1. An area of the Merrymeeting River that just opened up in the past 24 hours already had a duck couple swimming around in it today.
2. The eagles that nested on the river last year are already busy starting their nest.

Saw a very large flock of Canadian Geese today on some open water on Wheelwright Pond in Lee today. They were there just before noon and I saw them again about 4:00 PM. So Ice Out can't be too far away on Winni!

Rain and Temps in the Forties
 

Looks like next week is going to be rain with temps in the forties during the day. Thinking that my first ice out guess in my life...is going to be WAY OFF. :rolleye2:

When I made my guess of the 17th I thought to myself "no way can it really go that early". Now I think I overshot it a bit. I am on a cruise for a week next month, and think that it will probably go while I am away.

Ice out to me really means getting from gyc to mark, as this early in the year it is all I need. I am sure that path will be well clear before some of the bays.

Northern watershed
 

The Sandwich area has more snow in the woods than most other areas, so we will get at least some runoff. There also could easily be a large rain event in the spring. Don't worry too much yet. The lake is about 1/2 foot above normal for this time of year.

Lily Pond
 

I hear Lily Pond still has ice but is looking pretty grey, this should be a good indicator of when we will see ice-out.
I do believe we will see open water on the lake in March, however we will be waiting on Center Harbor and Alton Bay to let loose which may not be until late March.
As soon as the ice clears between Meredith Neck and Bear that will be my ice-out.

I agree. It took me a few years to learn as my eagerness to see ice-out would have me rush ice-out in anticipation.

But, as an example, several areas of the Merrymeeting River that had opened up in the past week have closed or skimmed over again. The low temps at night at this time of year tend to offset the loss during the day. The net result is a LONG period of not much happening toward ice-out. Especially this year as the "average" temperatures between now and mid-April will tend toward the status quo.

Having said that, it is interesting to see holes opening up in areas visible on the Ossipee webcam. Ossipee, in the area viewed by the webcam, usually freezes before Winnipesaukee, and opens later. But the melting/errosion from the higher temps below the ice seems to be having an effect.

And it can't happen soon enough...

It's usually about 2 weeks after Lily Pond goes that the big lake goes. I guessed March 24th this year, that's my dad's birthday.

Couple holes opened up on the Ossippe web cam this week. The one thing I always learned about on Winni iice out it comes down to 2 things........amount of rain and the amount of wind. Wind can destroy a alot of soft ice fast.

winds today
 

Is the ice thin enough for these winds to have an impact?

Some Open Water
 

Hope we make more ice-out progress with these sunny days and the couple predicted warm days!

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1330969564
WeirsCam - March 5th

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1330969564
Minge Cove Webcam - March 5th

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1330969414
Sunday, March 4, 2012 MODIS Satellite image of the lake from March 4th (5th not available yet)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1330969950
Varney Point Cam Gilford - March 5th

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1330970265
Lake Winnipesaukee Weather Cam

Water Temperature at 2 ft: 36.4 °F

Water Temperature at 10 ft: 38.4 °F

Do not forget Spring forward this weekend with day light savings

I was at the lake on Friday to register my boats and saw several very large open patches out by Welch Island, some in the broads and also by Diamond.

Was talking with a guy from Winni Marine Construction that same day and he said there's an open spot by the sand bar going into West Alton Marina and that the ice is very thin. He also said that a biologist went through the ice last week, behind Rattlesnake if I recall but perhaps someone has more information. Fortunately he made it out.

Ice Out
 

This is one of my favorite times watching Ice Out and following the Forum. Never would have guessed that I would be watching ice melt daily. But the daialy looks at the Forum photos and postings help the emd of winter and begin the planning for the opening of the island.

In receent years have been able to get to island before official Ice Out.

I expect to be on Rattlesnake at Easter this year. Call me an optimist!

Keep up the postings

Looking at the satellite picture, it looks like a very large area of open water to the Broads side of Rattlesnake and two smaller open areas south of the big one. They look like big dark circles....am i seeing that correctly?

The snow makes it look like we are a lot further from ice out than before the snow fell but I'm guessing that optical illusion will be corrected after a few sunny days in the 50s later this week.

Thicker ice?
 

The ice north of M'boro bay has been booming all day - like it does in early January when it is getting thicker. With the recent cold temperatures, I'm wondering if some areas are becoming safe again? There is nobody out fishing to ask, but a few snowmobiles went by on the ice on Sunday.

This has been a very strange winter.

The strong March sun vs. the colder than average temperatures was today's battle and will also be the battle tomorrow. Very cold for this time of the year tonight and tomorrow night. Wednesday and Thursday look to be very warm with sun, and the next ten days starting Wednesday also looks warm.

The ice builds tonight and tomorrow night, but after that it loses significant ground to the warm air and the sun.

Ice out around March 25th, plus or minus 3 days, is what I am still thinking. Big hole east of Rattlesnake already.

Crazy non-winter!

R2B

Yes, I think you are as those are the same areas I saw open last Friday

Two week Indicator
 

For the past few years I have always used Massabesic lake in Manchester / Auburn as my indicator for ice out on Winni. I go by Massabesic every day on my way to work so it's been easy and kinda fun watching the ice go out there then figuring out when Winni's ice will be out.

For three years in a row now, the day the ice is completely off Massabesic, 14 days later ice out on Winni has been declared. By tomorrow afternoon all ice will be off Massabesic! If my ice out method holds true, ice out on Winni should occur on March 22.

Remember you heard it here!! :D

Dan

Twenty guesses for that date in total. It will be a tight race if that's the day.:D

Photo from Gunstock 3/6/2012
 

A friend sent this to me today; took it yesterday on Gunstock.

There's some blue looking stuff out there! Yay!
http://www.pontoonbarge.com/forumpic...k_03062012.jpg

With rain, wind, and high-temps forecast for tomorrow, those holes should widen quickly.

Holes starting to show on the Paugus Bay and Ossipee Lake Cams.

I think it is time to seriously believe that Ice-Out will be soon. With the usual qualifier that it depends on whether the forecast is close, the 10-day forecasts are showing NO below freezing temperatures as far as can be seen after Sunday. When the temps stay above freezing at night, the pace picks up considerably.
:liplick:

Pictures
 

Would love to see some pictures of the ice after tomorrow afternoon. Especially some aerials. Hint, hint hint.

Mount Washington Dock Alton Bay
 

In the last 12 years, I don't remember any year when there was no ice on the opening day of salmon fishing April 1st on Alton Bay. One year we had to climb over waist high snow piles to get to the dock. Another year they shut off the bubblers the night before and the previously open water was glazed over. Fish and Game officers kicked off guys who were using various means to break up the ice. Fishing is only allowed on natural openings. Hope no one tells them that openings caused by bubblers are not natural. Some years we have fished with down jackets, vests and sweaters and others just a sweater. I don't anticipate any problems getting onto the dock or finding open water this year.

Were you expecting March winds to "come in as a Lion"? ;)

Final trip out to Rattlesnake Yesterday
 

While the winds and warm forecast will surely begin their work, the ice was still solid from the Landing out to Rattlesnake. I went out yesterday by snowmobile and within minutes of arriving out at Rattlesnake was supprised to see two other snowmobiles come by cruising the shoreline (probably not a great time for joy-riding as the ice is very inconsistent). Not sure about the rest of the Island but the power is still on at the peninsula. Spent the night out there. Woke to the sound of turkeys and some big/fresh cat-tracks... Next visit will be by boat...

First boat in Winni for the 2012 season...
 

Just looked out and noticed a little sailboat out in the open water off of Belknap Pt.

You were able to make it out to Rattlesnake by snowmobile??? Wow, I would have never guessed the ice was anywhere near safe to get out there!

Dan

Surprised too
 

We didn't venture out this year, it looked like it was never safe enought to do it.

Ice Out! I miss the island!

...going out alone in a Sunfish like that with the water temp at about 38-degrees seems like a very risky thing to do.....what were they thinking when they made the decision to go sailing alone like this? Probably.....they would be better off to go join some local exercise group at a gym or club or somewhere and wait till ice out.....when there's more boats all around........ before going sailing like that.....some people just do dumb things and this seems dumb to me.....

Today's WeirsCAM time-lapse is kind of interesting with the snow cover disappearing very quickly between 11 and 12:30:

Are you sure about this? Two years ago ice out was declared on March 24th...

Not last spring but the year before (2010) I think there was no ice in Alton bay for opening day. I went up to fish the Merrymeeting side of the stone bridge a few times in March (for rainbows) and the salmon were already in. Opening day that year was superb! I think I caught 12 off the docks at Downing's landing. I've been following those web cams daily and I note we have at least as much open water off the gas dock as we did on opening day last year (which was a snowstorm) and there's current. My buddy Trav actually braved the snow on April 1st last year, got there at first light and fished what he described as a "White-out Blizzard" for an hour in gale force winds. Then at one point he started toppling over for no apparent reason, only to discover that the driving wind had caused so much snow to build up on one side of his body that it tipped him over. He went home. The next day (April 2nd 2011) was sunny and clear but frigid and windy with very little open water. Out at the end of the dock I tried to cast into the wind (whipping straight off the lake) and the fly line would make it ten feet or so then the wind would catch it and trow it back around my ears.We still managed to find salmon and I got 9 that day.

Here's some video from that day:

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/5E49MlYtJLQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I'm guessing opening day this year will be awesome. F&G has been stocking the heck out of the lake and also dropping salmon back into the Merrymeeting instead of along the shoreline. That's got lots more fish showing up in Alton the past few years.

Warm, warmer and ...... liquid lake coming
 

The current temps from CLA's weather station.... 3:14 pm

Water Temperature at 2 ft: 37.7 °F
Water Temperature at 10 ft: 39.2 °F

Notice that the 10 ft temp is now over 39 degrees... ice is being eaten from the bottom as well as the top!

All the snow melted in my yard today. This morning I could have run a snowmobile around it...

Ice-Out 2010
 

We opened our cottage on East Bear Island on April 1, 2010 [our earliest opening ever in 43 years]. Ice-out was about a week earlier [earliest ever for the Big Lake].

Ice conditions afterThursdays wind & temp. ?
 

I would assume that yesterdays weather probably had a large change in the ice conditions. Wondering how things look today? Thanks.

That's because the salmon population has shown signs of not being in very good shape when the F&G does the annual fall netting/stripping. That's why they have tightened the rules a little bit and asked anglers to take it easy especially on the salmon. I had either heard or read somewhere that the combination of increased fishing pressure and stocking fish that were to small really hurt.

Last couple years I have noticed the salmon I've caught quality wise have gone down hill. Last year it was really noticeable most barely if at all legal so all were thrown back. Lake Trout on the other hand were typically nice.

Open Water!
 

Yesterday's 60 degree temperature and full sun, followed by rain and gusty winds overnight, have created a massive area of open water from the Parker Island area all the way southwest to Treasure Island. From there it extends to the southeast considerably past Ship Island and has almost reached Moose Island. It's working its way toward Alton Bay. The area is so large there are whitecaps on it this morning as a result of the continuing strong wind. It appears from our vantage point that an area of the Broads between Rattlesnake and the mainland is open water now too.

I'll take some photos later this morning and add them to this post.

Please! Please! Please!

Photos
 

We wait is killing us! Can't wait to see new photos

Photo from Belknap Pt
 

The wind is chipping away...

Couple Photos
 

I will post more photos later this afternoon, but this will get you started.

The first photo shows a very large area of open water just north of Diamond Island. The area of open water is larger than the island itself. That's the northwest end of Diamond Island at the far right side of the shot:

http://echoshores.com/Photos/Diamond_Water.jpg

The second photo is a long telephoto shot looking over Diamond and Rattlesnake Islands to the Broads on the northeast side of Rattlesnake.

http://echoshores.com/Photos/Rattlesnake_Water.jpg

More to come later!

http://http://echoshores.com/Photos/Diamond_Water.jpg

Glendale
 

The Glendale docks are still iced in. As can be seen from the photo from Belknap point posted by Massasauga today, there is open water from light #26 out to Welch. However it is mostly unbroken ice from the town docks out to #26 :(

More Photos
 

Here some additional photos taken today:

This shot was taken at Ames Farm showing the large area of open water along the shoreline:

http://echoshores.com/Photos/Open_Wa...arm_030912.jpg


This shot was taken at Lincoln Park showing the large area of open water stretching from the Light #26 area out to Welch Island, which is just off the right side of the picture:

http://echoshores.com/Photos/Open_Wa...ark_030912.jpg


Another shot of the open water on the northwest side of Welch Island taken from a higher elevation:

http://echoshores.com/Photos/Open_Wa...lch_Island.jpg


This shot was taken from Glidden Rd. in Gilford showing a portion of the large area of open water to the southeast of Rattlesnake Island:

http://echoshores.com/Photos/Open_Wa..._Southeast.jpg


Here is a panorama shot taken this afternoon from just west of Minge Cove showing another view of the large area of the open water to the southeast of Rattlesnake Island:

http://echoshores.com/Photos/Open_Wa...30912_1028.jpg

Click HERE for a larger version of the panorama.

Temps n the 50's all next week should do some serious melting. any rain or wind will help as well. 10 day forecast shows a little of both. Gonna be early this year as well.:D

Wow won't be long now ...

Don,
With all this snapping you have been doing, its a wonder you ever have a chance to squeeze.:laugh: Great pictures Don.

Can I change my Ice Out guess?
 

Is it too late? oy!

Gettin' itchy
 

Got back late last night from a week in the Caribbean with the wife and kids. Now I'm watching ship shape TV. Had to get on line immediately to see the ice out progress. So excited to kick off the season on Sleeper Isl. Weather this coming week looks in the mid to upper 50's and should wipe out a lot of ice.

Thanks to those of you that make the effort to post photos for the rest of us. Keep 'em coming..............

Ice out coming
 

Flew over that lake yesterday and took these few pics. The ice has started to open from Sleepers to the eastern point of Rattlesnake Island, Wolfeboro Neck to Ship Island and just North of Diamond Island and from Locks Island to Welch Island. The snow will have little effect on the eventual outcome but still too early to say that it will be early this year. As a reminder, Ice is not declared until the MS Mt. Washington can freely navigate to all ports of call. We'll be watching closly in the coming weeks.

I took these shots this mornig in Alton and Wolfeboro.

In this one you can see that the ice is moving further out into Wolfeboro Bay.
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...hp?photo=18413

This one was taken from the Rt 11 Scenic View area in Alton. If you look above the trees on the left you can see the open water spot that others have mentioned and shown in prior photos.
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...hp?photo=18412

The light dusting of snow makes the ice look stronger and more extensive than it is. But the sun is out now and it is melting fast.

Here's a question for you lake historians... What is the Alton Bay Bandstand built upon? I've often wondered why it is not twisted and broken each winter as it never has bubblers around it, and it is always solidly locked in the ice. How does it survive each winter?

I believe that the bandstand is supported by a "crib" like structure that was constructed, then filled with rocks with a foundation placed on top.

That is correct. Several years ago repairs were made to the underlying crib. The bandstand is maintained by the Alton parks and rec dept.

Great photos !! thanks. Enjoy hearing about the ice out progress. Any info or photos on how it looks in Meredith Harbor?

Also does anyone out there have any info or pics on the area around Shep's and Cattle landing... thank you...

If this had been a month later -- instead of March, my guess for this Thursday would have been "in play". :(

Today's MODIS pic show the large opening near Rattlesnake very clearly.
The predicted temps of 60+ this week and much above normal 70s for the following week should make for ideal melting......

The WeatherCam 10 ft probe is showing temps above 40 for the first time. The water body is warming...

Just watched the time lapse on the weirs cam, the ice really took a beating the last couple of hours.
We are in to single digits (9) until the first day of spring.

one word........
 

yippeeeeeeeeeee..........!!!

The ten day forecast is showing some great daytime temps and above freezing for the next ten nights. The warmer nights should definitely help with moving this process along.

Weirs Cam
 

The ice in the Weirs looks like it could go out today or tomorrow! The Governors Island cam still looks locked up pretty solid however.

Ice out in 10 days!!

Dan

Belknap Point & Glendale
 

More open water seen from the point today, Glendale docks still iced in.

Never thought I'd have so much fun watching ice melt :rolleye2:

The Anchor Marine time lapse view shows noticeable ice retreat in the last few hours. The Minge Cove cam shows growing open water on the horizon. In the last few hours, several other views have gone from whitish to grey and wet.

With no below freezing temps in sight, I would not be surprised if some of those with Ice-Out guesses late this week are in the running.

I don't think it's a matter of if we have another record early ice-out. It's more when.

Is Sebago really free of ice?

I Have March 23 @ 9am , its not looking to bad :D

With the ice disappearing so quickly I guess I better get around to replacing the impeller in my stern drive. I know what I'll be doing on Saturday. :rolleye1:

Gen 2 Alpha? Those last forever.

You might be boating!!! :eek:

Dan

Not a chance, it will never make it to the 23rd

Sebago is a very deep lake and there are winters when it does not freeze. This was one of those winters. It is not that unusual.

R2B

If the readings are to be believed, the 2 foot water temperature measurement on the WeatherCam page has shot up several degrees today, and it showing about the same temperature as the 10 foot probe (~39 degrees). The 10' probe was also registering over 40 this morning. So it appears that we're reaching the point where the colder and warmer layers are mixing to create a uniform temp from top to bottom, which happens for a short period in the Spring.

Wouldn't own anything else! It's an '03 Alpha I Gen 2

I've had a new impeller for it sitting on my workbench now for over a year and keep putting it off. Couple of hours in the garage pre-season beats a blown engine in the middle of the summer. ;)

My last boat with a 94 Alpha I Gen 2 went 10 years before I replaced the impeller and it was probably still OK and my current boat will probably be in the same condition but having a new one in there is piece of mind I guess more than anything else. Heck it's a $20.00 part. I learned my lesson last time and didn't needlessly buy the entire housing kit.

Is the lake in the center of the photo, where it is mostly white and then a dark spot in the lower left of the white area?

I love these photos. Thank you for posting them.

Silver Sands page is up
 

Here is the link. I will have the link on my ice out page later tonight at www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm

http://nhboat.com/Nhboat/Features/ice/ice-out2012.htm.. Thanks to Barry for doing this every year!

IG

Yup, that's the lake!;)

This all has to do with the density of water. Pure water is most dense at 39.2 degrees F. When the water well below the surface goes over 39.2 degrees, it floats to the top slowly displacing the cooler water close to the surface. People call it flipping. Once the lake flips, the ice melts very fast from the bottom up. CLAs two probes, on his Black Cat weather site, clearly are showing this process yesterday and today.

I am now thinking this weekend will be ice-out, but I have been wrong before.

R2B

My eyesight is not as good as it once was, however, watching from Texas there is still lots of ice out there! If your prediction should turn out to be true, we'll send you some longhorn bucks from here! :) :laugh:

Terry
_____________________________

It sure is!!!
 

Sebago never froze this year and it doesn't freeze completely 3 out of every 10 years. Some of my friends think we have hot springs somewhere. The real issue is depth of the water(300+ feet in places) and wind.

BT

Absolutely Correct!!

Yes. The dark spot is open water near Rattlesnake Island.

Thanks R2B.

While a bit detailed, a good description of lake flip, or turn over, can be found here.

http://www.waterontheweb.org/under/l...ification.html

In both cases, the phenomenon is very helpful to the ecology of the lake, bringing necessary nutrients up from the bottom of the lake, and mixing the oxygen levels.

I never go near it in the Winter, so I never noticed. Huh, thanks.