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-   -   How variants like omicron develop (https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27626)

trfour 11-27-2021 03:31 PM

How variants like omicron develop
 
and what makes them variants 'of concern'.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/variant...ncern-rcna6798

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/f...gners-rcna6858

WinnisquamZ 11-27-2021 04:39 PM

The only thing we know for sure is those all infected have been fully vaccinated


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thebix 11-27-2021 06:10 PM

The new variant appears to be spreading most quickly among those who are unvaccinated
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ (Post 364706)
The only thing we know for sure is those all infected have been fully vaccinated

Hard to understand where you get that information.
https://www.necn.com/news/national-i...icron/2624663/
The new variant appears to be spreading most quickly among those who are unvaccinated

We’re seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with COVID-19,” Rudo Mathivha, head of the intensive care unit at Soweto’s Baragwanath Hospital, told an online press briefing.

“Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated,” said Mathivha. “I’m worried that as the numbers go up, the public health care facilities will become overwhelmed.”

A key factor is vaccination. The new variant appears to be spreading most quickly among those who are unvaccinated. Currently, only about 40% of adult South Africans are vaccinated, and the number is much lower among those in the 20 to 40-year-old age group.

From the NBCNEWS story posted,
"The major concerns are that this variant seems to be at least as transmissible as delta, which is very transmissible indeed, and it has a large number of mutations in the crucial spike protein, which is targeted by vaccines," Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, said in an email.

"This raises the concern that it might be capable of side-stepping the immunity generated by vaccines," he warned.

Still, he said, as it stands, "we really have very little data ... as yet on exactly how transmissible it is in highly vaccinated populations, let alone on the sort of disease it causes in folks with prior immunity."

Jinal Bhiman, principal medical scientist at National Institute for Communicable Diseases of South Africa, said a key aspect of concern in South Africa, where there is a relatively low vaccination rate, is Bhiman suggested the variant was potentially "evading other immunity responses from other variants," she said.that those who have already been infected by the delta variant appear to be getting reinfected with the new variant.

Bhiman suggested the variant was potentially "evading other immunity responses from other variants," she said.

Still, she said that theory was based on early data, adding it was too soon to say what the variant's impact will be.
-------------------------

So, the reason this variant is so concerning is the unknown effect vaccinations have on it. And in South Africa, so few are vaccinated there is little data known currently on what the impact will be on vaccinated people. Certainly, the spread in SA is in UNVACCINATED people mostly. The immunity from a previous delta variant does not protect from this one, but then it has always been said the current vaccinations are far better and more protective than the weak/limited immunity from a previous infection so that is not surprising, and does not indicate what vaccination protection may exist.

Certainly, "those all infected have been fully vaccinated" is far from reality in a mostly unvaccinated South Africa.

WinnisquamZ 11-27-2021 06:15 PM

https://www.foxnews.com/health/dutch...-test-positive
My understanding is to fly in Europe and the Netherlands you must be vaccinated. So the assumption indicates fully vaccinated


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John Mercier 11-27-2021 09:13 PM

Bad assumption. You can have a negative test 72 hours before take-off as also qualifying. SA reports only 24 percent of the population being vaccinated.

We also don't know if the new variant has a greater degree of breakthrough...

ďThe patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, itís not the older people... Weíre not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,Ē Coetzee was quoted saying. Only about 24 percent of the population is fully vaccinated in South Africa.''

WinnisquamZ 11-27-2021 09:38 PM

With the information know today, all positives are fully vaccinated. And vaccinations are required to fly, so how is this a bad assumption?


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John Mercier 11-27-2021 10:18 PM

As I posted. They are not required to be vaccinated. They are required to show a negative PCR test taken less than 72 hours before departure.

I can be clean three days ago when I tested, and positive when I leave.

You are also only looking at cases caught after leaving South Africa were it is running rampant according to the WHO and they are not a highly vaccinated country.

So you have made a bad assumption.

FlyingScot 02-10-2022 05:33 PM

Oddly, one thing that so many of these reports miss or just glance at is that new cases are plummeting. Maybe the politics is a more exciting story than the science?

Massachusetts looks great (see link), and NH not that far behind (accessible from linked page). If the trend continues at anything like the current curve, we should all be comfortable maskless in Mass by end of the month, which I think is Baker's target

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

LoveLakeLife 02-10-2022 11:21 PM

Most people have been comfortable being maskless for a year and a half. The fad is long over.


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John Mercier 02-11-2022 12:11 AM

The companies are now just adjusting into their pricing the lost labor time due to covid outbreaks. For a while it was just a matter of allowing for longer lead times... but when those went berserk, they just fell back to the usual pricing increases.

It's an easier way to manage the system rather than chase people around.

TiltonBB 02-11-2022 07:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoveLakeLife (Post 367170)
Most people have been comfortable being maskless for a year and a half. The fad is long over.


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That is true. But some people seem to still be obsessed with it.

FlyingScot 02-11-2022 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoveLakeLife (Post 367170)
Most people have been comfortable being maskless for a year and a half. The fad is long over.


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Maybe "most people" in parts of NH, and that makes sense for places with only a few people. Pretty much everybody in Boston wears masks all the time while in stores and most other public places, and virtually nobody complains. Massachusetts is dropping masks as very encouraging data come in. This is not a fad, it's just following the data, as we've been saying the whole time.

LoveLakeLife 02-11-2022 07:15 PM

Most Boston people are not like most normal people. They cower to perceived authority and their will to complain has been extinguished by groupthink. If the mayor told them that every third person would need to be shuttled to the harbor islands and wear beekeepers headgear, they would comply. A far cry from the Sons of Liberty.


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John Mercier 02-11-2022 07:33 PM

They tend to be buying up NH pretty quickly.

Lakegeezer 02-11-2022 08:07 PM

Let it just happen
 
People are voting with their feet now. I still won't attend concerts or a movie but feel pretty good about not wearing as mask in most locations. Except, a few weeks ago I caught a bad cold so wore a mask to protect others, just in case I had a false negative test. If I see most people are wearing masks or if there is a sign requesting it, I'll put it on. No big deal. At this point, the government can back off. People that are at risk know it and can take precautions or catch it as they wish. As long as the hospitals are not overwhelmed, let people individually decide how to deal with it.

If a nasty variant comes along, things may change. The vaccine was designed for the original non-variant, so things could take a turn for the better or worse. Historically, it should be better.

John Mercier 02-11-2022 09:16 PM

I think the problem for most governments is that they cover the cost of health care; and indirectly, we taxpayers.

I know my company changed the policy and pricing very quickly so that few if any could afford the small deductible 20/80 coverage up to a max out-of-pocket to a HSA with first dollar out of pocket until the max is reached.

A few people griped that it would be $6500 out-of-pocket if they got hospitalized.

For government employees, those on Medicare and Medicaid, or through a family member in those groups... not a lot of financial incentive to pay attention.

LakeDad 02-18-2022 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ (Post 364721)
With the information know today, all positives are fully vaccinated. And vaccinations are required to fly, so how is this a bad assumption?


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Iíd say you need to familiarize yourself with the master list of logical fallacies before entering any debate, but youíre a few steps behind that:

The facts you are trying to use to base argument are flat out wrong. Iím sure they are what you want to believe, but that doesnít make them true.

You can fly internationally without vaccination. Period.
Next?

trfour 02-19-2022 12:03 PM

Do Covid treatments work against omicron subvariant? Scientists keep close watch
Early data suggests the omicron subvariant has the ability to overpower some Covid-19 treatments.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...-wat-rcna16836

upthesaukee 02-19-2022 01:30 PM

Yes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by trfour (Post 367461)
Do Covid treatments work against omicron subvariant? Scientists keep close watch
Early data suggests the omicron subvariant has the ability to overpower some Covid-19 treatments.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...-wat-rcna16836

We were tested positive a couple of weeks ago (second time in just over 3 months).

We were given a new monoclonal antibody infusion, because there were two M.C. I. previously, but they found they did not work well with the omicron variant. The good news is there is virtually no side effects with it. The name of this one starts with the letter S.

I was asymptomatic, but my wife, who thought she had a head cold that moved to her chest, actually has pneumonia and is being treated for it.

Dave

FlyingScot 02-19-2022 01:47 PM

Best wishes to your wife, Dave. I have not had covid, but have had 2 or 3 bouts of pneumonia, and it can be brutal--the fatigue is profound.

tis 02-19-2022 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by upthesaukee (Post 367466)
We were tested positive a couple of weeks ago (second time in just over 3 months).

We were given a new monoclonal antibody infusion, because there were two M.C. I. previously, but they found they did not work well with the omicron variant. The good news is there is virtually no side effects with it. The name of this one starts with the letter S.

I was asymptomatic, but my wife, who thought she had a head cold that moved to her chest, actually has pneumonia and is being treated for it.

Dave

Wow, twice in 3 months?? I am sorry to hear that. Glad you are ok and hope she is well soon.

trfour 02-19-2022 11:50 PM

So sorry to hear Dave, I hope you both get well soon and sending my Best Wishes to you!

Seaplane Pilot 03-07-2022 05:46 PM

Thereís a gap between coronavirus mandates and data:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...mandates-data/

FlyingScot 03-07-2022 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot (Post 368090)
Thereís a gap between coronavirus mandates and data:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...mandates-data/

I can understand why you read Breitbart for political ammo or pleasure, but since they don't even pretend to be anything other than a megaphone for hard right politics, it's kind of silly to be suggesting we should read it for covid data

Seaplane Pilot 03-07-2022 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingScot (Post 368103)
I can understand why you read Breitbart for political ammo or pleasure, but since they don't even pretend to be anything other than a megaphone for hard right politics, it's kind of silly to be suggesting we should read it for covid data

As expectedÖ.thanks for not disappointing. But another member posts hundreds of links to MSN, and all I hear are crickets chirping. Itís ok, I get it.

FlyingScot 03-07-2022 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot (Post 368105)
As expectedÖ.thanks for not disappointing. But another member posts hundreds of links to MSN, and all I hear are crickets chirping. Itís ok, I get it.

MSN does have a hard left slant, in the same way the Wall Street Journal has a hard right slant. I don't pay quite as much attention to them as when their slants were a bit less.

But neither is in the same league as Breitbart in terms of publishing things that are grossly misleading in order to score political points, and being funded and run by people whose sole mission is politics.

thinkxingu 03-08-2022 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingScot (Post 368109)
MSN does have a hard left slant, in the same way the Wall Street Journal has a hard right slant. I don't pay quite as much attention to them as when their slants were a bit less.



But neither is in the same league as Breitbart in terms of publishing things that are grossly misleading in order to score political points, and being funded and run by people whose sole mission is politics.

MSN is a news aggregator, right? The two "MSN" articles I clicked above were from The Hill and The Guardian, both center or just left sources.

In either case, far from Breitbart, or its liberal brethren Occupy Democrats, which are both laughable for anyone attempting objectivity.

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Seaplane Pilot 03-08-2022 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thinkxingu (Post 368137)
MSN is a news aggregator, right? The two "MSN" articles I clicked above were from The Hill and The Guardian, both center or just left sources.

In either case, far from Breitbart, or its liberal brethren Occupy Democrats, which are both laughable for anyone attempting objectivity.

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Itís only objective if itís a liberal news source. Conservative sources are all non-factual.

thinkxingu 03-08-2022 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot (Post 368149)
Itís only objective if itís a liberal news source. Conservative sources are all non-factual.

Ummm...did you even read my post?

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Seaplane Pilot 03-08-2022 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thinkxingu (Post 368150)
Ummm...did you even read my post?

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Ummmmm, yes.

thinkxingu 03-08-2022 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot (Post 368153)
Ummmmm, yes.

Weird.

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FlyingScot 03-08-2022 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot (Post 368149)
Itís only objective if itís a liberal news source. Conservative sources are all non-factual.

Like Think, I don't think you read our posts. I just cited the Wall Street Journal as a conservative news source that is fact-based. In the past I have said the same of Forbes. Very different than the deliberate misinformation peddled by Breitbart.

trfour 03-15-2022 11:31 AM

972,214 Total confirmed deaths
 
Covid cases climb in Europe as restrictions ease and BA.2 subvariant spreads.

Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick in England, said Europe's rise in infections is likely to be a result of the spread of the omicron subvariant known as BA.2, paired with waning immunity and the relaxation of mitigation policies.

"The U.S. certainly needs to take note and consider the impact of yet another more transmissible variant," Young said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...t-us-rcna19891

trfour 03-15-2022 06:21 PM

Anew Omicron sub-variant, BA.2, informally dubbed "Stealth Omicron," is potentially threatening certain major cities in the U.S., right as COVID-19 precautions and protocols have begun to ease up.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ne...edgdhp&pc=U531

trfour 03-15-2022 07:11 PM

A more transmissible COVID variant is spreading globally.
The BA.2 variant, also colloquially referred to as the Omicron stealth sub-variant, is spreading worldwide right now. This includes in the U.S., where the White House says it has been circulating for some time now. "We currently have about 35,000 cases [of the BA.2 variant] in this country.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...n=true#image=1

trfour 03-16-2022 02:04 PM

CDC confirms uptick in Covid virus found in wastewater.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...ater-rcna20120

trfour 03-16-2022 03:44 PM

Omicron sub-variant BA.2 spreading across U.S. as cases rise overseas.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...edgdhp&pc=U531

trfour 03-16-2022 06:40 PM

UPDATE 2-WHO says global rise in COVID cases is 'tip of the iceberg'.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...edgdhp&pc=U531


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