No More Visitors!
 

CONCORD, NH — Gov. Chris Sununu announced Monday the state would be closing all hotels, motels, and bed and breakfasts in the state that are not performing essential business like renting to first responders or medical workers. The decision, he said, came after speaking with business owners, members of the hospitality industry, and hearing concerns of Granite Staters about the influx of out-of-state visitors coming to New Hampshire from states with high infection rates. Last week, Sununu said he couldn't physically block people from coming to New Hampshire to visit parks and recreate.

But this was one way to discourage visitors.

"We can't emphasis it enough, you're safer in your own home," Sununu said.

New Hampshire will be allowed to stay in the state until the end of their current reservations. The closure includes AirBnbs, VRBO, Homeaway, hotels, motels, and other facilities. At this time, it does not include campgrounds.

When the new coronavirus pandemic ends, the state will be open for business again, Sununu said, and visitors will be welcome to come back to the state.

Sununu also commended Granite Staters for having a good time with his Home Hike Challenge initiated as a way for residents to enjoy the outdoors in their own communities instead of going to busy recreation areas around the state.

Sununu said the state was working on a plan to come to deal with the state's homeless population — an issue that officials were working on before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The governor said most of the state's shelters were full but positive cases were being self-isolated. Since the problem of homelessness is multifaceted, including issues around housing, public safety, crisis centers, mental health assistance, and other resources, there wasn't one policy the state could take to fix the problem. Sununu said officials were "monitoring the situation through the crisis." He added that federal funds, and possible future relief funds, would be available for community development block grants, and there would be opportunities in the future to address the housing issue.

"We have to get back to where we were before the crisis," Sununu said.

Sununu said officials were expecting a surge of cases in the state between mid-to-late April to early May. He said the surge may not be a single dip but longer, "at the back end of the curve," and it is unknown how broad the drop of the consistency will be. Sununu said he felt confident there would be a backend at the end of the curve and it was based on what was going on in "the high density areas and how those models play out" and different demographics of affected populations.

Sununu said it was an understatement that the next two weeks were going to be bad. I don't think any of us understand how different it's going to look in the coming weeks or the coming months, he said.

"There's nothing that isn't impacted by this," Sununu said. "It's astounding, actually. I think the roughness of it comes in the speed that we have seen it. You don't have days and weeks to (react)."

The state is expected to release new models later this week.

Hard to argue taking more actions to slow the spread but if you look at the current cases in NH - the hot spots are close to/right on the MA border. Not sure this is from MA or other out-of-staters coming to visit NH and/or vacation (nothing against the Rockingham area) Looks more like NH people that live in those areas going into MA for essential work and bringing it back. I suppose another option (lower case in my mind) is MA people going up to get cheaper gas or liquor right over the line????

I'm sure there are many ways to read this chart but that's what it says to me...
Thoughts / idea's / other theory's?

Southern and SE NH sees many commuting over the border into MA to work.
Those NH plates you MA folks see are likely working at Raytheon or the other numerous defense or med device companies you have in the state.
Southern and SE NH has a higher density population than other counties.

Hence, hot spots.

Two things to keep in mind in support of the Guv's position. First, there are likely many more cases that are undiagnosed due to lack of testing. Second, if you believe that the spread from a few patients is inexorable under normal conditions, then the best time to clamp down is early. That way the shutdown is shorter and more effective.

cancellation of rental season...
 

Gonna cost me a lot of income.

But, more important, about 60 people will be cancelling vacation in 2020 in the Lakes Region just based on my one property...

It does put Laconia’s new rental policy on the back burner for this season


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The Quinault Indians in Washington state have banned non tribal members from their reservation; by report roadblocks are in place.

Laconia still wants you to get the permit and have them come to the property and inspect.

Did he say this was going all summer? I read it like it just for the current time period till May 4th but probably extended.

Are you saying that everyone has canceled through the entire summer?

Last published numbers from the city was only two permits issued to date. With the shutdown can’t envision much getting done. Speaking with friends who own rental property at the Cape and was told they are open all season. Everyone cancelled. Curious how it is going up here


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No...It appears I will have to cancel them.

I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that you are going to loose the entire season.
There is to much at stake for to many people, for the Governor to keep that type of ban in place to long.

I would hope that by May, that type of Ban will no longer be needed.

On the flip side some people that really depend on the rental income to afford the 2nd home, might be in serious trouble this year......

I agree. No decisions about most anything until May.

So you can't get a hotel if you're from out of town and may be infected, but the state wants to dump up to 50 homeless that are positively infected ?

https://www.laconiadailysun.com/news...d5d084861.html

That's a good idea, I'm sure when this is over they'll check themselves out and walk on up the street for some great eats from Tavern 27. What could go wrong ?

Apologize for the delay back, been keeping busy. Yes, 6 families canceled their stays. I was wondering what those that rent in this area have experienced


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On a related note--today's Times had an excellent article on the major sports leagues' plans. Sounds like they've already written off September and maybe longer. A different thing than a rental house, but not terribly different than a hotel. These guys are a very hard-nosed, competitive group, so it's chilling

It follows a pattern...
 

------------
I've found that being a multi-disciplinary person has helped a GREAT deal in following this virus. One minute I need to think like a writer ("find common themes") and the next minute like a firefighter/weather forecaster (toxins, equipment, air-related matters) and apply medical knowledge from EMS.

Annnnd I see that NH hotspot map seems to follow the world map. There are never any absolutes in nature, and now's not the time to figure out details like exceptions to the rule (science is full of them) but it IS time to find the general rule.

The general rule for COVID-19 transmission and severe cases seems to be "anywhere people are all crowded in together in smaller spaces." Cities are full of multi-unit buildings that share air. Drafts between apartments are common. In cities you also get people crammed together in indoor spaces. Even in lockdown people still have to go food shopping. Our whole way of life involves cramming lots of people into smaller spaces and turning everyone into a number so we can do a group process all at once. This virus seems to be calling us back to individualizing and that's strategically and logistically a nightmare for modern western culture.

But look at the trends in severe infections, (fatal or not) and multiple cases (regardless of severity). Flight attendant: Small shared space. Bus driver: Small shared space. Cruise ship: Small space relative to size of occupancy. Navy ship: Super-small shared spaces. ER staff: Small space relative to volume of occupancy. City supermarket: Small space relative to volume of occupancy. Ambulance: Small shared space. European way of life: Smaller dwellings, tendency to crowd together. Every time I've seen pictures of Iran (another hotspot) before the virus, I always saw crowded cities in the middle of a mostly undeveloped desert.

Based on the trend, it appears a large (but not total) part of the problem is the ratio of "container air volume to container occupancy." Cities are FULL of places where people crowd together. Suddenly telling them to distance themselves can't change the fact that it takes about 66 days (according to psychologists) to fully form a new habit. I've heard therapists say there's almost no point to 10-day addiction programs.

This virus is attacking our crowded places and our tendency to crowd, in the same way lightning kills cows. Cows crowd together when the storm comes and one bolt takes them all out. They'd fare much better if they did the counter-intuative thing and spread out across the cow field. I have a gut feeling COVID-19 wants us to think and act counter-intuitively (and creatively.) In the Industrial Revolution we started drawing the box. The USA's Founding Fathers were no strangers to plague. They lived in a world that was really dark, the king ruled, and he could have you beheaded for treason if you spoke against him. They created this country under darker conditions than we're now in. Surviving a winter sometimes required a lot of creativity. Then the Industrial Revolution started the trend towards "everyone's a number."

Based on the general trend I've observed (and there are outlier situations to be investigated later) this virus is attacking the crowd mentality and system approach our culture has increasingly adopted since the mid-1800s. It might very well be pushing us back away from the cities -- back to the pre-1920s way of life before Americans started gravitating toward cities.

It follows a pattern...
 

------------
I've found that being a multi-disciplinary person has helped a GREAT deal in following this virus. One minute I need to think like a writer ("find common themes") and the next minute like a firefighter/weather forecaster (toxins, equipment, air-related matters) and apply medical knowledge from EMS.

Annnnd I see that NH hotspot map seems to follow the world map. There are never any absolutes in nature, and now's not the time to figure out details like exceptions to the rule (science is full of them) but it IS time to find the general rule.

The general rule for COVID-19 transmission and severe cases seems to be "anywhere people are all crowded in together in smaller spaces." Cities are full of multi-unit buildings that share air. Drafts between apartments are common. In cities you also get people crammed together in indoor spaces. Even in lockdown people still have to go food shopping. Our whole way of life involves cramming lots of people into smaller spaces and turning everyone into a number so we can do a group process all at once. This virus seems to be calling us back to individualizing and that's strategically and logistically a nightmare for modern western culture.

But look at the trends in severe infections, (fatal or not). Flight attendant: Small shared space. Bus driver: Small shared space. ER staff: Small shared space (small due to crowding.) City supermarket: Small space relative to volume of occupancy. Ambulance: Small shared space. European way of life: Smaller dwellings, tendency to crowd together. Every time I've seen pictures of Iran (another hotspot) before the virus, I always saw crowded cities in the middle of a mostly undeveloped desert.

Based on the trend, it appears a large (but not total) part of the problem is the ratio of "container air volume to container occupancy." Cities are FULL of places where people crowd together. Suddenly telling them to distance themselves can't change the fact that it takes about 66 days (according to psychologists) to fully form a new habit. I've heard therapists say there's almost no point to 10-day addiction programs.

This virus is attacking our crowded places and our tendency to crowd, in the same way lightning kills cows. Cows crowd together when the storm comes and one bolt takes them all out. They'd fare much better if they did the counter-intuative thing and spread out across the cow field. I have a gut feeling COVID-19 wants us to think and act counter-intuitively (and creatively.) In the Industrial Revolution we started drawing the box. The USA's Founding Fathers were no strangers to plague. They lived in a world that was really dark, the king ruled, and he could have you beheaded for treason if you spoke against him. They created this country under darker conditions than we're now in. Surviving a winter sometimes required a lot of creativity. Then the Industrial Revolution started the trend towards "everyone's a number."

Based on the general trend I've observed (and there are outlier situations to be investigated later) this virus is attacking the crowd mentality and system approach our culture has increasingly adopted since the mid-1800s. It might very well be pushing us back away from the cities -- back to the pre-1920s way of life before Americans started gravitating toward cities.

Well written. Brings to light one of the major reasons each of us moved into this area, to avoid those situations


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I have one small rental cottage, no cancellations yet. It’s booked from the first of July through mid-August on a weekly basis. Most are people from MA, but my July 4th week peeps are from CA, so I guess we’ll see how it plays out.

Back before elevators?
:confused:

JFYI - neither is cheaper any longer. Gas last week and today - $2.09 where I go in MA, least costly found in Laconia $2.29 (for 93).

Hard alcohol - for the four types I normally buy each is $4-6 more per bottle at the NH state store than it is in MA.

Tobacco is still cheaper, but that's about the only thing left that is.

Cheap Cheap
 

$1.89 per gallon in southern NH yesterday.

Hard liquor prices
 

From Big Stan; Hard alcohol - for the four types I normally buy each is $4-6 more per bottle at the NH state store than it is in MA.

That surprises me. Does that include MA sales tax? I'm on the mailing list from NH outlets and usually stock up when things are on sale, or you get a $25 gift card if purchase is over $150. Don't know about MA but I have a friend in RI who gets a discounted price at the local liquor store because the store owner is his client on other business.

No tax in MA on booze any longer, we voted that away a few years ago.

Example from last time I looked a couple weeks back:

1.75L Fireball $23.99 MA / $28.99 NH
750ML Don Julio 70 $69.99 MA / $74.99 NH

I see a liquor store going in @ Market Basket / Tilton. That's where I go in MA, wonder if they will change the NH pricing to be in line with the state store pricing in NH ?

MARKET BASKET? Didn’t think you could by hard liquor anywhere but a state store in NH


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They are constructing a new State liquor store off exit 20 near the entrance of Market Basket and Walmart.

Apparently there’s a bunch, but I bet they have to standardize their pricing with NH state prices? If not then good deal for all..

https://www.shopmarketbasket.com/bee...tore-locations

That’s a beer and wine list in NH, but they are building a new store in the MB plaza that I though said liquor / Market Basket? I’ll go look tomorrow, they wouldn’t build a new store if they can just keep beer and wine within the old store.

And sorry to hijack the thread, but as we now know liquor is essential :)

Are you serious? Worked at a liquor store in MA recently...never saw this.

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Saw what, MB liquor stores or lower MA prices? MB prices are low as we all know, but NH are not lower then MA the way they used to be.

Haven't seen liquor prices at MB. Does the limit of number of grocery stores in MA still apply? Used to be only two in a chain could sell liquor. I was in a small, family-owned store near the NH border that couldn't compete with the mass buying in NH. But it was in a small outdoor mall with a Hannies as the anchor, so it did okay.

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You are correct. The Tilton store is just west of I-93’s Exit 20, on land owned by Market Basket, filling an undeveloped piece of property between the supermarket, a Northway Bank branch and a Wal-Mart.

MA actually has one of the highest tax rates on alcohol in the US, it’s in the form of excise. NH one of the lowest. MB in Waltham mA is currently the only MB to sell alcohol in the state. The NH liquor store at exit 20, will be a state of NH store, next to a MB.
There certainly are some very competitive stores in the state of ma, that have excellent prices sometimes lower than NH. However when NH can twist the arm of a supplier and make a large volume purchase , generally speaking their prices will be hard for Ma stores to compete with.

BJ's
 

I understand that "some" BJs in MA sell liquor <Hard / Wine / Beer> (different rules from city to city to town in terms of if they are allowed to do so) but the ones that do are competitive and in some cases better pricing than NH State stores. They also have a lot of buying power I would imagine.

NH Liquor stores are far cheaper on the spirits I buy. Stoli, Jack Daniel's, Beefeater Gin. I can find the same deals on wine in my area of MA, if I know where to go. FWIW.

Big sale
 

NH stores seem to be having a mega-sale now, cheapest $ I have ever seen. Makes sense they want a revenue stream right now...

Serious question here.

What is the downside of a family from outside of NH that has been social distancing and showing no signs of Covid heading up to their lake house for the weekend that has been empty since early March?

Assuming they bring all the food/provisions they will need and stay contained to their property with the exception of some walks/hikes?

Other than potentially being in a accident driving to/from the lake what is the downside?


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As long as your walks/hikes are in areas with no people, there is no downside at all. Just stay away from Mt Major, Castle in the Clouds, and the like. Enjoy your weekend!

Assuming that all people do as you suggest, I doubt anyone would have an issue with that scenario.

The rub, it "feels like" there was a mass exodus from highly infected areas of the country (NY, MA) and ... again it "feels like" those people flooded the region..... I can tell you with 100% certainty that the areas around the lake were affected.

Right, wrong or indifferent the Lakes Region as well as other areas of the country had a tremendous influx of people over the last month that rightfully chose to escape this pandemic as best they could. So for the locals to feel uneasy is not beyond reason.

As I am sure you are aware, this influx added to the shortage of supplies at the local grocery stores. It is certainly not the single reason, but it did add to the shortage. Grocery stores usually ramp up as we approach Memorial Day.

It takes time to adjust to such an unexpected surge and it will take time to level off.

Nothing
 

I don't see one based on your plans. Have fun and welcome !

Starting in two weekends, this is exactly what my family and I will be doing!

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This weekend for us.

Sorry to hear that man. I understand the virus fear, but there's something truly unamerican about property rights being nullified by that fear seeping into government action. :(

The Governor doubled down, and the Lakes Region COC pushes back? Good for them....

https://www.laconiadailysun.com/news...5347e74af.html

Numbers to date
 

34 COVID deaths in NH for 2019/2020 to date
Source: The COVID Tracking Project. Last updated Apr 16, 2020, 3:40 PM
https://www.nh.gov/covid19/index.htm confirms NH Numbers

31 flu deaths in NH for 2019/2020 to date
Source: WMUR/State of NH (4/17/2020)

I understand your point, namely: We blithely accept the fact that a lot of people die yearly due to the flu; why then should we go crazy about covid-19, when the death rate seems comparable?

The answer is three-fold.

First, the death rate is not comparable, as the year has only just begun: you cannot say what the final, yearly death rate tally from covid-19 will top out at.

Second, there is a vaccine for the flu, but not for covid-19: this difference is extremely important.

Third, even with social distancing / closing businesses the infection / death rate from covid-19 continues to climb: it is not under control, it has not stabilized, and we've no idea what is yet to come.

Given that covid-19 is more virulent than the flu I submit it is a much more serious threat that must be taken very seriously.

Covid 19 has no herd immunity, has no vaccine, no medication (yet) and the actual illness has a lot of unknowns including potential serious long term sequale.

Flu has a vaccine, has treatment, has partial herd immunity, is widely and easily tested for and has known but rare long term complications.

The argument that it is no worse than the flu is nonsense IF you are trying to show that the present actions of the government are a silly over reaction.

Perhaps there is an overreaction..but comparing it to the flu is really not any more valid than comparing it to the yearly number of deaths to cancer or heart disease.

I've said it in a couple other threads, what a lot of people in NH are missing is the numbers are SIGNIFICANTLY under reported. Just today, I have had 3 people tell me that they know people that are unable to be tested in NH. One was told "go about thinking that you have it and if it gets worse we will test you". Another is a cop that has to wait a couple of days to get tested, he is coming down to MA, might drive to Pats Place, to get tested.
I'm not saying stay away from everyone, I'm not saying that we should "open" everything up. But if you are going to look at numbers in NH, look at what actually is happening, NH doesn't have tests, if they do, they are not using them as much as they can be using. I personally don't know which one it is, but do know I'm hearing daily that people can't get tested.

Numbers are underreported everywhere, not just here. There are guidelines as to who gets tested. So, at least for now, not everyone who wants to be tested will. At Concord Hospital, where my PCP is, they've tested 800+ people, but again, you need physician approval to be tested. Per the DHHS, 12,000+ have been tested in NH.

In today's press conference, the gov and DHHS just said we have adequate testing capacity, but of course would like more (an probably need more to start opening things up more).

Thank you.
Despite the availability of vaccine, I thin k we've all heard people say, every fall, "I'm healthy. I never get the flu shot." "I had it once, so I'm immune." When we see flu numbers, we never hear of the percent who were vaccinated in the last 12 months, or not, as the case may be.
Can you shed light on this? Thanks for sharing your expertise, doctor.

I 100% agree with the fact that all numbers are underestimate. Don't know if we have "enough test".

The CASES may be under reported but NOT the deaths which is way more important.

sanity!
 

Oh my goodness, I voice of sanity on the FORUM. Wonders never cease.

I was merely sharing facts of virus deaths in NH this season.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6907a1.htm

The CDC has all this data if the link works. As you might guess, the vaccination rates vary by age,location,sex,etc etc. Preliminary data suggest overall the vaccination rate is about 50% and efficacy of this year’s vaccine is about 45%. This varies some each year and the exact influenza viruses change each year and even during the same season.

The most important fact is that getting the flu vaccine does help prevent your getting it and if you get it, vaccination decreases the severity of the illness.

The benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks associated with it. Although Covid 19 is a greater risk for the elderly; this is not necessarily true of flu depending on the specific influenza virus.

The Coronavirus Task Force Conference happening at this moment is an EXCELLENT example of superb physicians discussing many of the issues that we on the Forum have been discussing. Reassuring that someone really gets it and can explain it.

A little off topic...but not really.

"Herd Immunity" Just Got a Boost...
 

But wait, there's more...

A German study is also examined—at the link.

Lady in the article very well spoken. A voice of reason when lots of folks are going a bit over the top in the fear/authoritarian department.

She sounds reasonable at first--plenty of room between people outside at campgrounds, etc. But she loses me when she pitches the midsummer pumpkin fest. I love large cultural events--I go to 2-3 concerts or music clubs per month. But just about everybody knows that as we figure out some reasonable way to ramp up, get togethers with hundreds or thousands of people in close quarters are the last thing we need.

I came across this article with some interesting thoughts about outdoor gatherings (full disclosure, I am on the Board of Directors for a large fair in Connecticut). A good read, and maybe an avenue for a directed study...

https://carnivalwarehouse.com/newsse...hy--1587254400

I think at this time, twice as many people feel the need to stay safe over those wanting to open up the economy. While I do believe that there will be many people that will be thrilled to be able to go to fairs etc., I feel there will be too many people that will not go because of safety fears.

Thanks, I agree this is a good avenue for directed study, and also that an enclosed space makes it worse. But the authors avoid the Mardi Gras experience--our closest test so far, and all agree it was a super-spreading event. A real bummer (I'd definitely rather go to a concert than a grocery store)

Susie, I think you're right, for a lot of us it won't be a question of can we, but will we. Maybe similar to 911, where it took people a while to be comfortable flying again, attending large events, etc.

I remember my first flight a few weeks after and seeing armed military patrolling MHT. But, eventually we all adjusted and got back to "normal".

Yes- it will be a "new" normal much like after 9/11. I am usually flying out every other week, so I am curious to see how many of my clients will drastically change how they do business.

My granddaughter was born a few days after 9/11 and the airport experience was surreal. Also ironic that my GD “class of 9/11” Is now a senior in high school and will miss the usual festivities.