2024 Ice-Out Guess Contest Now Open
<p align="center"><a href="https://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2024/" target = "_blank"><img border="0" src="https://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2024/iceout.jpg" width="560" height="100"></a></p>
The 2024 winnipesaukee.com Ice-Out Guess Contest is now open and accepting guesses. There are a few small changes this year: 1. Only the closest guess will win a prize (in the past the 3 closest guesses would win a prize). 2. If Ice-In does not occur in February the contest will be cancelled. 3. If Ice-Out is declared in February the contest will be cancelled. |
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Center Harbor was pretty locked in as of yesterday, so technically the Mount is iced in. Ice out may come in February at this rate.
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The Mount route is only for Ice Out being declared by Emerson.
The lake has to coat over for him to declare Ice In. |
It's the "Ice out" contest not the "ice in" contest and the Mount is definitely iced in.
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With it design, size, weight and power, don't you think the M.S. Mount Washington would have the easy ability to cut and move through that relatively thin, weak slushy ice just like a can opener if it really had to do it?
With this in mind, its not really iced in enough to keep it from escaping to open water just like a Coast Guard ice breaker in north Canada waters. |
The rules of the contest requires Emerson to declare Ice In.
He only does that when the lake is completely glazed over. He only uses the Mount route when declaring Ice Out. The Ice Out contest rules requires him to declare Ice IN. |
I just drove by Meredith, ice as far as I could see today. Same for Center Harbor. Snowmobiles on the side of 104. Trees covered with snow. Nice day.
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Obviously not enough for Emerson to make the declaration.
Per Rule #2, he has the month of February to do so. |
It's been crappy flying weather for at least a week, should be better by Saturday, maybe he'll get up then. Can't forget the rules...
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2024 Ine-Out Contest
Dear, dear FLL, I understand your observations about the M/V Mount Washington being able to power its way through the current ice conditions in Center Harbor (and probably most of the Lake), but this Forum has grown used to the annual Ice-Out Contest, and in order to have 'ice-out' there first must be an 'ice-in'. So, even this year, as questionable as 'ice-in' may be, we must hope for it so we can have he much anticipated annual "Ice-Out Contest.
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I'm not obsessed.
Just read the rules and understood what the Webmaster meant by them. |
No Ice In
Emerson Aviation declared no Ice In today...Just an FYI
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If there is no contest...technically, does this mean my streak of losing the contest ends?!
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I have March 1st 12:01AM
Emerson told WMUR still a chance if we get some cold by the end of February... |
I was skiing on Gunstock both yesterday and today. Yesterday most of the Broads was still wide open and with no sign of any floating ice. Today there were patches of shell ice floating fairly widespread all over the open water, so my guess would be if we hold the cold nights until the end of the week the Broads may finally have a chance to freeze over.
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My summary of this year's guesses:
Fine print: two guesses for 2023 were changed to 2024 |
This morning's observations:
Alton Bay - short section of open water from the bridge half way to the bandstand. Then ice up past the scenic overlook. Rt 11 to Diamond and Rattlesnake, open with many small chunks of floating ice. Glendale Bay, open but ice around the town docks. Smith Cove and Fay's - iced in Alan |
Harbingers?
Lily Pond? Crystal Lake?
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Dan |
Is ice out getting close
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more ice?
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I can see open water in the distance from my cameras on East Bear. The Glendale docks should be freed up by the weekend. |
Friday!
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Dan |
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Anyone have reports on the condition of the ICE on the norther portion of the lake? (Winter Harbor, Moultonborough Bay etc. )
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Moultonborough Ice
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View from my webcam right now. Still iced in, but very dark. That is Spectacle Island - with 19 and 20 mile bay out of view behind it.
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Graying ice
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The ice in Moultonboro Bay is getting grayer, but the cracks and bubbles aren't moving around yet. The rain tonight and wind tomorrow could start the end-game. Here's a shot looking north, with the Ambrose Cove barn visible just left of mid-picture.
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My view looking northwest from Camp Island. That's Mink on the top left and Bear on the top right. If I squint, I think I can see the C-Nile puttering between those two to Mark.
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Today:
Alton Bay – Open water nearly up to the bandstand, then mostly ice up to the scenic overlook. Lots of fractures. Glendale town docks – ice cubes shore to about 30 feet out, nothing that Dan can’t deal with. Smith Cove – mostly ice, some open water near shore. Alan |
N.H. Fish and Game ice dive training
On Tuesday, March 5 at about noon, on a very gray cloudy day, the NH Fish and Game had ice diving practice training in Center Harbor Bay. About five pick-up trucks, two dive team trailers, about ten(?) officers and a 20' jon boat powered by a large airplane propeller were present at the Center Harbor boat launch, town docks, and parking area.
Watching the 20' ice air boat moving out across the gray ice, the weak gray ice didn't have strength enough to support the boat so it plowed through it and was partially supported by water and partially by soft ice for about 300-yards. F & G divers in complete black wet suits took turns making practice dives through the ice opening created by the air boat. This went on for a few hours time with repeated dive practice training drills with different divers making practice dives out there through the gray ice. Maybe the ice could support a person walking but could not support the weight and power of the ice boat which looked like it was mostly supported by the water, under the ice, or something, as it has the ability to move across ice, water, and soft slushy ice. It made a heck of a lot of loud noise, coming from the engine, as it powers across the weak ice. So, the ice dive, recovery team doesn't just magically happen, it takes practice and team work to be able to locate and remove a dead drowned body from under the ice, somewhere down there. |
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Dan |
Is it too late to adjust my guess? ;)
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So close
If the ice isn't gone by Monday then the higher winds that day should get rid of the last of the ice. Right now the webcams look like they are just showing slush. Unless anyone else sees more ice somewhere?
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Alton Bay still a hold out: mostly ice from the bandstand to the scenic overlook.
Smith Cove: a fair amount of open water, ishoot thinks open to Fay's tomorrow. Our Eastern is now in the water at Fay's but the Monday/Tuesday wind forecast may delay a trip to Welch until Wed. Alan |
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So, what's the difference between a rescue and a recovery? It could be wearing flotation like a pfd, or a foam noodle belt tied tight around the waist under a coat. Walking out onto the lake ice can seem so visually safe and solid at first until you go smash, crunch, wack and break through the ice in half a second as it breaks under your weight. |
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Smith Cove today looking from Fay's dock: Close. Still planning escape on Wednesday.
Alan |
One sliver at the end of the Glendale YC docks to go and we can reach our slips. By the time the Eastern is cleaned this week it will be good to go in.
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Alton Bay today- I was surprised with the amount of ice left given the wind. Mostly ice, with many open patches, from the bandstand to at least Loon Cove. Now open at the scenic overlook but the edge of ice may be just below that.
No ice out today. Even if it was, Emerson probably would not fly. The wind at the airport is NW 18 sustained gusts to 31. Smith Cove - We took just a quick look from the Glendale YC driveway, the ice sheet had moved away from the YC docks. So the ice sheet is free to be moved around by the wind. I do recall that in a recent year the west by NW wind pushed the ice sheet into the neck of the cove. Will take a look from Fay's tomorrow. |
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Lots of ice moving between East Bear and 5/6 Mile. A friend a bit further north has been sharing camera pics all day. We are seeing it roll into our shore and disappear. Lots of wind through early Wednesday and decent daytime temps should still give a solid chance of ice out by the weekend I think. |
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Dan |
Alton Bay lost a lot overnight. One band left south of Echo Point is the major blockage. About 100 yards north of the bandstand there is a strip of ice holding back a pile of slush. I expect that to go today, and the rest to the north by tomorrow.
I hear the ice in the vicinity of 5 Mile is gone, and Island Services are out and about. What does Center Harbor and Wolfeboro look like? Thinking Alton Bay may be the hold out. |
By late yesterday, the wind had taken out the ice between Long Island and the end of Moultonborough Neck from the bridge down to around FL64. This morning, the rest was gone, down to at least the six-pack and beyond Pleasant Island. I can see some ice off in the distance, in the direction of Tuftonboro Neck.
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Open water as far as one can see in this pic today from Harilla Landing in Moultonborough. Even have a boat in the water.
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As viewed from Fay's dock today, Smith Cove is ready for a jail break tomorrow when the wind takes a break. Alan |
Flew over Alton around noon, needs another day or two. I have a picture, but can’t make it small enough to post.
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Very close…
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Still some ice in Meredith Bay but view from the top of Red Hill looks pretty clear! Squam looks pretty socked in.
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Hopefully it makes up for last year's sucky rainy summer! |
Alton Bay is still hanging in there...Not today.
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Somewhat surprised it wasn't called yesterday. Driving through Alton Bay at 4, it just looked like a couple of patches of slush in the water at Echo Point.
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Ice Out Declared!
At 4:37 pm today!….
Dan |
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