Water Levels
 

Too soon to panic, but looking at my permanent dock and then the Bizer water level chart, it’s clear that we’ve got a very long way to go to get to full lake. Yes, this is the time of year when the lake typically rises with the spring runoff. But we’re starting from a lower point than typical, and we have not had a lot of precipitation this winter or recently.... Lakeport is only releasing 600 CFS right now which is very low and suggests to me that we’ve got very little mountain run off filling the pool right now and even slowing the outflow isn’t having a lot of impact - at least not yet.

Same
 

We're near Trexlers and our beach area looks exactly as it did in late October. Watch out props!

The current lake level is right at average for this time of year, perhaps only an inch lower than normal: https://www.des.nh.gov/sites/g/files...-graph2021.jpg

Will it catch up?
 

While the water level is a bit below normal, the snow pack was never deep and rainfall totals are also below normal. The melt was early this year and is well underway. All that points to an expanding gap between current and normal water levels unless we get an extended rainfall. Who knows. It has happened before.

Was it last year we started out very low and then got tons of rain?

Nope...this was Glendale last April 4th, a few days before official ice out. Level was pretty high!Attachment 16854

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Do you remember what year it was? It wasn't too long ago. I remember everybody was so worried.

If I am reading Bizer's chart correctly, it appears to have been 2019 and towards the end of April and the beginning of May, it went quite a bit above full lake.


Attachment 16855

Fuul lake on August 1?
 

Seems like DES aims for full lake the first week of June. This is a complex operation dealing with snow pack/melt, watershed saturation, predicted rain, actual rain, etc. They mostly do a good job.
I'd love for the goal to be full lake on August 1st, so that we could have good boating through October. Downstream lakes and rivers depend somewhat on Winnipesaukee, but there are also downstream dams for intermediate control. If we go overfull an inch or two and have a lake wide NWZ for a few days, I'm OK with that. Usually the lake wide NWZ has been when we are more like 6 inches over full. Pretty rare. Am I alone in this thought?

I would love to see it higher, later in the summer/early fall

Glendale docks today...little lower than last year...
.Attachment 16858

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I agree winni83, if I am reading it right also. :laugh: I don't think it's an unusual occurrence for it to be really low in Mar/Apr and then get very high. Some years of course are more so. Thanks for finding that. Glad I can still remember something!!

We need some rain....
 

I'm on Waukewan and it drains into Winni. We are very low this spring.
There are rocks in front of our neighbors house that usually don't show up until August and they are already above the surface quite a bit. :eek:
I just got my prop rebuilt because we were very low last fall. It sucks to be starting the season out this low.:(

Way too early to be concerned about the lake level in my view, for a few reasons. The lake is exactly at average level for this time of year (https://www.des.nh.gov/sites/g/files...-graph2021.jpg). And while we seem to be a little dry based on the same chart (about 3 inches below average year-to-date precipitation for this time of year), the NOAA long-range forecast has us with likely above-average rain for the next couple weeks and normal precipitation in the longer 3-month term. Considering April is generally a pretty wet month and rain is already forecast for next week (plus the “above-average” NOAA predictions), I think we’ll be in good shape.

The lake is only 7 inches below full lake level, which is right where it is on average this time of year. In the spring where the ground is still fairly saturated, it only takes 1 inch of rain to raise the lake 5 inches (per NH DES watershed website), which is part of the reason the lake increases so much in April/early May every year. Remember, ice-out was early this year, so it shouldn’t be surprising that folks think the lake seems low for boating season—it is, but that’s normal for early April.

If you look at the DES chart, the lowest the lake has ever been on May 1 (the data goes back to 1982), was 503.5 (so about 10 inches below full lake). We’re 3 inches above that now. We’re not so unseasonably dry to think that the lake will be anything other than around full the normal time of year by mid-May/June 1.

So actually this is the perfect time to be concerned about lake level. While I share your view that the lake is right where it should by based on Statistical data, I do not share your view that we are in great shape....

- The ground in the area is not saturated to normal levels
- we are still in the recovery phase of last years drought
- While they can give predictions of rain, that doesn't mean it is going too
- Not only do we have to be concerned with Winnipesaukee, but we need to look at the entire watershed itself....
-- other lakes are are not as full as they should be. Which means at some point their inflow into Winnipesaukee will get cut back. To preserve their lake levels. (MerryMeeting, Waunkewan, Kansakta)
- People still need to open there camps and start drawing from the lake and Water table in the case of wells, which does and will have an effect.

If you go look at the DES website and the lake level at the Weirs, it is actually starting to fall again... and the Dam is only at the minimum out flow....This is not Normal at all for this time of year.... Normally they are releasing more water, to keep the lake from rising to fast.

Forecast
 

On the TV forecast I'm hearing dry conditions, high fire risk, no significant rain in the next couple of weeks. DES has publicly expressed concern fort many lakes low levels, including Winnipesaukee.

Grafton Pond (not in the Lakes Region, but same principle), one of New Hampshire's prime kayaking destinations, was not kayakable last year. I heard they were working on the dam in fall 2019, but the water level never recovered in 2020. I heard that water was being diverted to other lakes in the area due to the drought. That appears to be persisting into this year. I have had a stream rushing across my property in the spring for the last 27 years. There is not a drop of water this year. Plus, I've never heard fire warnings in the spring before. I share your concerns!

What info are you looking at suggesting the lake level is starting to drop? The hourly DES data has the lake still slowly rising even without rain (https://www4.des.state.nh.us/rti_data/WEIN3_TABLE.HTML).

I agree it’s not normal for the dam to be at minimum output this time of year. But keeping the dam at minimum output will offset quite a bit of below-normal dryness.

I don’t think we’re in a once-in-many year situation where folks need to be so worried in early April. And it’s not like worrying is going to change anything.

Looking at the same data that you are...... You right worrying about it isn't going to change anything. But if you have boats in the water or going in the water you need to be monitoring the situation.......

Looks like the lake is just about full as of today.

https://www4.des.state.nh.us/Rti_hom...bove+sea+level

I think this is a testament of how well the dam operators can regulate Winni to offset a bit of dryness from Mother Nature. Hopefully there won’t be another drought this summer to avoid a repeat of last fall’s crazy low levels. But that worry is a long ways off...

How are the other lakes that folks were worried about a few weeks ago?

CowTimes--nice job forecasting early in this thread! :)