Ice In
 

Ok, so I know it's been unusually warm, and we really can't define "Ice-In". But with the forecast now showing more normal nighttime temps well below freezing, and the water temperature approaching the 30's, it's time for ice reports. I expect we'll start seeing areas of skim ice within the next week. This thread will serve for those posts.

The lake normally is mostly iced-in by early January. Despite this year's warm Fall temps, the water temperatures seem to be fairly normal for this time of year (plus or minus a few degrees). It will be interesting to see how it evolves this year.

I know that I always do this to the first post about ice-in every year but we are weeks away from ice on anything but the smaller lakes and shallow ponds.

It takes quite a while for the top layer (several feet) of water to reach the uniform 39 degree threshold of maximum density that is required for it to freeze. Then you need several nights of clear, calm, and cold (0-10 degrees) to make it all happen. Time will tell....


BT

Agreed. As I said in the earlier note, it's usually early to mid-January , at the earliest, before the lake is considered mostly covered. But I would not be surprised to hear of shallow coves and other areas having a skim coat in the AM on some of the upcoming mornings with temps in the teens. I'm sure this will disappear as the day wears on, but it's the start of the process.

yesterday's water temp is 6 degrees warmer than last year on the same day

No worries
 

The law of averages. Too early to worry about ice in. Getting colder. Be patient.

This is from the Farmers Almanac:


DECEMBER 2011: temperature 29° (5° above avg. north, 1° below south); precipitation 3" (avg.); Dec 1-4: Rainy periods, quite mild; Dec 5-8: Flurries, seasonable; Dec 9-16: Snow showers; mild, then cold; Dec 17-21: Blizzard, then windy, cold; Dec 22-23: Heavy snow, seasonable; Dec 24-29: Snow showers, mild; Dec 30-31: Sunny, cold.

JANUARY 2012: temperature 23° (3° above avg.); precipitation 2" (1" below avg.); Jan 1-8: Sunny, then snow showers, mild; Jan 9-12: Sunny, cold; Jan 13-19: Snow north, showers south, then sunny, mild; Jan 20-26: Snowstorm, then snow showers, seasonable; Jan 27-31: Snow showers, very cold.

Lees Mills Ice Skim
 

On Sunday morning (12/11/11) there was a good skim ice in the Lees Mills area. The attached photo is showing Lees Landing.

It's been posted on this site before, but with ice forming over the next month, this reminder from the Farmers Almanac on safe ice levels is worth reviewing (though if we stay 4-5 degrees above average temps much longer, it may not happen this winter)

http://www.almanac.com/sites/new.alm...ethickness.pdf

Looking at the 15-day forecast through Accuweather there looks to be a brief cool down in the next week and then warmer again. There may not be a Ice In this year.

Perfect !!!!!! :eek: Bring on the boating season

Them's fightin' words!

According to today's Friday LaDaSun, the Gunstock ski area wants to get open for this season with maybe two trails open or something on this Sunday, December 18. What with today's sunny and mid-40's temps here in Meredith, that doesn't seem possible, but maybe they'll get enough snow making time crammed into the Saturday predicted cold snap? ....stay tuned....can they do it?

Most likely, the ground up on Gunstock mountain has yet to freeze up what with all the rainfall over the last two days.

...say-hey....there's always outdoor tennis at your local free public tennis courts and you don't need to purchase an expensive lift ticket to use the courts.....tennis!

water temp this year on Dec 14 was 43 same as last year on dec 2 so we are as of now running about two weeks later than last year

A couple of the web cams show some ice this morning. Alton bay cam looks the best.

No "Ice in"?
 

What will we do during February if we don't have "Ice Out" to monitor? I would miss the anticipation of returning to Rattlesnake.....

At 8 AM the ice was solid (no holes) past the bandstand in Alton Bay. That was when the temps were down in the teens, but now creping toward the 30° mark. An http://i52.tinypic.com/2s8k8lh.gif thought for many viewers.

http://i54.tinypic.com/2e56yqf.gif

Here's the picture
 

Taken from 28A near the old Oak Birch Inn.

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo.../IMAG00921.jpg

and from Railroad Park on the west side of the bay.
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...m/IMAG0093.jpg
small steps!!!!

Does anybody know the water temp?

Per Black Cat weather station
 

at 2 ft: 40.7 at 10 ft: 38.6

Here is a link to that site:

http://www.blackcatnh.com/

Thank you.

Ice in
 

I saw a sheen of ice on the Wentworth webcam in early morning yesterday. I fear real winter will never come, what a horrible thought!

Lilly Pond...
 

... is completely iced over. Drove by it today on my way to the Gilford recycle station.

Wonder if it's the same as Ice Out. "They" (whoever They are) say that Lilly Pond goes Ice Out 2 weeks before Winni, maybe it goes "Ice In" 2 weeks before?

The 10 day outlook on weather.com shows lows in the 20's. That is not ideal for ice making. I hope we don't have a repeat of 2006 when the derby was delayed and there were soft spots all over the place.

The thickest ice I saw on my way to work this morning was on I93 from Tilton to Manchester. Jeesh.....thanks for the heads up weather forecasters. The scene around the Hooksett tolls was down right apocalyptic.

And I think Winni is going to take a heck of a lot longer than 2 weeks to ice in.

This is a bad weather pattern if you enjoy snow and lake ice.

ice in
 

Has there been a year that the lake hasnt frozen over ?

I know there have been years when the broads never locked up.

I know it's still fall, but the bays should be locked up with ice by now right? (even if it's just a couple of inches)

Alton bay seems to be the only one holding any ice and Moultonboro bay seems like it's trying hard. My knowledge is only based on what I can see from the cameras.

Iceman cometh and goeth
 

It was surprising to see some of Moultonborough Bay frozen this morning. It had frozen about half-way across over the weekend, but blew out in Monday's winds. Tuesday AM, it was frozen half-way again with a light coat of snow on it. Now, the rains have come and it is looking very thin and gray. It will probably not last till tomorrow.

lake temp at 40 still two weeks behind last year

The water temp is pretty much where it was in December of 2006, a year when many also worried there would be no ice-in. The lake was still mostly open in late January.

But it got very cold in late January, and February, and by the end of January, there were reports of 10" of ice. It can change quickly. It is New England, after all.

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/...ghlight=iceout

And, this website reports today's Weirs Beach air temp at 1:33-pm to be 48-degrees......now that's pretty warm for December 22!

Winnisquam did not in 2001-2002.

Ice-out records have been kept for 125 years (beginning in 1887). Over that time, there hasn't been a single year that the lake didn't freeze over (although the broads might have remained open). Ice out has occured in April 109 times; 13 times in May; and 3 times in March.

The ice-out history can be found here.

I guess we can declare "ice-in" this morning (Dec 25). The Mt Washington can't make it down the bay today without cutting through a lot of ice. It moved in quickly this morning, and there is a thin sheet of ice at least 1.5 miles long.

a little ice in meredith
 

we went out to the island yesterday and just a little ice around the mainland dock... it was a beautiful day for a ride in the alumacraft... but the 'wind chill' was freezing when we got any speed up!

we didn't see any (other fools) out on the water

hoping for ice -PIG

With temps remaining in the 40's through the night and heavy wind and rain, We should see much of the skim ice in the protected coves and bays disappear tomorrow night.

But then the next night will be in the low teens, and it will stay below freezing for 24+ hours, so much of it will probably reform.

past Sandy Point in Alton Bay
 

On the way to the dump, errrr landfill, errrrr Transfer Station (ah, politically correct at last;)), we noticed the ice in the bay was out past Sandy Point. This too will probably change over the next day or so, and then start to reform Thurs.

Ice In Feb 1st??
 

If you look at this thread; http://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/...ad.php?t=11360 it looks like the broads finally froze right around January 14th last year. Based on this and the 10 day forecast we will be at least two weeks or more later this year.

Thoughts or predictions??

Dan

I look at long range weather models as a hobby. They are not always correct, but they do show a trend. Within the last week, two of these long range models have started to show that cold weather, below normal cold weather that is, is coming.

These two models are predicting each of the next three months of 2012 will be below normal temperature-wise in our part of the world. Since it appears the first week or so of January will be near or very slightly above normal, this tells me that it is possible the colder than normal weather will get going soon after the first week in January.

If this happens, it could "rescue" the winter activities on the lake. However, we are well behind where we should be this time of the year and as we get into late January, the sun angle gets higher and that starts impacting ice growth, especially if there is no snow on the ice to reflect back the suns rays.

Bottom line is, IF these two long range models are correct, we could still have a reasonable winter. However, if they do not have it right and the warm trend of the last six months continues, we will remember this winter as one with poor, unsafe ice conditions.

I only have been looking at temperatures, not the more complicated view on precipitation, so I am not saying these models are predicting big snow storms. They might or might not be doing this, I have not looked at this that deeply. We need to get it cold first.

I share this only to say there is a possible light at the end of the tunnel. Let's hope it is not another train! :)

R2B

As of now, weather.com (TWC) shows some pretty cold temps for the next 10days. The predicted 5* low will help give the ice a jump.

There was people on lake pemingewasset today

Wmur stated today that this could be a year that Winni does not completely freeze over. Let's forget about ice inane just concentrate on ice out, ha ha ha. :laugh:

How does the lake look this morning?

Cold.

Well, actually, with the sun out so brightly, the sky so blue, and no snow around as I look out over the water, it looks like a nice fall day. The wind isn't as strong as it had been, so there are no whitecaps between Long Island and the Neck. I do notice that in close to shore, for 50 ft or so out, the quieter water has allowed some ice to reform overnight. Further out, where the breeze is cooling the water rapidly, it also is turning over the surface and mixing it with slightly less cold water below it and delaying the freezing.

Given Up
 

I have given up on seeing any kind of decent ice fishing or winter sport season on Winni this year. With the 10 day weather forecast predicting above freezing temps during the day and mid forties on Saturday, the chance of the broads freezing over this year are slim. :(

Oh well, looks like the camp will open just that much earlier this year! :)

Dan

I'll settle for bare ice at this point and I'll leave the sled in NC. I just want to be able to fish and ride the atv's to my favorite spots.

If anybody is up flying around, I'd like to see some pics of the lake from the sky. The webcams give me a good idea of what parts are freezing, but it's only a handful of areas.

When I got up at midnight, the stretch between 20 Mile Bay and Moultonboro Neck/Black Island was entirely liquid & choppy. By the time I got up @ 6:15, the entire area was frozen, save for a small patch out toward #59 marker. However, most of Winter Harbor was still completely open. Once that wind calmed, the temps didn't take long to set it up.

Don't give up yet! There will be less wind over the next few nights and the lake is cold enough to freeze, as CLA has pointed out. We could see the bays locking up by this Friday night, some sooner.

Yes, there will be one warm day Saturday, but by the following Thursday, it will be very cold. Winter is coming and it looks to be below normal cold for the period Jan 11th onward for a few weeks, perhaps longer. I expect that in the end, Jan and Feb will be below normal temperature wise. Time will tell, but I am fairly confident with this.

Once it gets cold, the snow will follow.

R2B

See earlier reference to 2006... most were giving up that year too.

The lake was frozen solid by late January.

Check out the Weirs Cam time-lapse video for today. The wind goes down and the bay skims over. Wow!!!

R2B

Time for some skating

Giving up on winter in the first week of January????
 

C'mon!! My bet is we'll have plenty of ice by 28th, maybe a little earlier. It's been a little slow in coming this year, but the weather patterns are beginning to trend more towards real winter. Ice is forming in the bays and beyond. Patience....

The water temp has dropped the past few days and is sitting in the low 30's. It won't take much. A few days of no wind and temps below 32 and it will skim over.

R2B;

I'm saying that I am giving up to throw Mother Nature off. Old Ma Nature knows how much I enjoy my winter time activities on the big lake and she is trying to mess with my head with all this warm weather! She likes doing stuff like that, she can be bitchy at times! :eek: I figure if I say I have given up it will throw her off just enough to get some cold weather here and get the ice locked up. :D

I'm feeling much better now!

Happy New Year!

Dan

not nice to fool...
 

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/LLrTPrp-fW8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

S. Wolfeboro Bay
 

Just want to report that the water in front of my rental house has frozen in motion. For the past two months I've been watching the winds kick up this little bay and this morning, all of a sudden it was frozen in place. Just like that. It's a very thin veneer of ice because I can see the water undulating beneath and moving this delicate frozen surface.

Fascinating.

This am the area between Long Island and the Neck is wall to wall ice.

Somebody on iceshanty.com states there is 4" of ice in Alton bay. Great start!

Most of Winter Harbor has a very thin delicate layer this morning.

Dan,

Great strategy!

Happy New Year to you!

Enjoy whatever winter we get.

R2B

First Bobhouse on the Alton Bay
 

First house on yesterday with two guys chasing flags. Wow and only 4-5" of ice. I am anxious but not that anxious, one good warm rain could make a huge difference.

Skating
 

We have been ice skating on the north end of the big lake since Christmas Day .

You're right...and that rain event will probably be here mid week next week. No real ice to speak of in Meredith unless you want to fish between the north shore and the little island with the Indian statue on it.

Paugus Bay
 

Had to visit the vet Wednesday morning and I noticed a lot of the bay was skimmed over, and then the breeze picked up. It was really kind of cool to see it all just kind of fade away.

Northeast quadrant ice is here to stay (hopefully)
 

North of Moultonborough Bay (think light marker 14) it is all but frozen over now. We had a heavy dusting of snow this morning, so the holes in the ice are easily visible. Near rocks and in strange (probably spring fed) places, there are still small open spots, but for the most part, the ice is thick enough to gingerly walk on. Two inches is enough to keep the winds from removing the ice (for the fifth time this year) but not thick enough for anything more than a cautious foray near the shoreline or the local minks.

My area of Merrymeeting was wide open as of Monday. Returned today to find somewhat thick ice several hundred yards out. Not enough to walk on, but more than a skim. But by afternoon it already seemed to be retreating as the temp came up.

What surprised me more was my drive to Alton Bay. At about 4PM this afternoon, there were 4-5 ice fishermen out on the Bay. Several were well beyond the bandstand, out in the middle Given the areas of open water showing in multiple areas, not sure I'd trust it. There was also 1 bob house already out, almost out to the bandstand, and beyond (north of) it.

Yep it is
 

Any body know how thick the ice is? Also any news on 19 mile bay?

On another site it was reported that Alton Bay has about 5".

I was gone from the area since Saturday, just returning today. It's interesting what has happened to the ice.

The Merrymeeting River is now almost completely closed in. It was still mostly open when we left on Saturday. So ice formation has continued. (For those who may not know, the Merrymeeting River flows into Alton Bay)

But at the same time, most of the ice that had formed in some of the coves on the lake has disappeared.

In any case, all the water bodies seem to be right at the tipping point needed to freeze. All it's going to take is extended, below 32 degree temps, something that appears to be coming next week.

Ice is singing
 

Much of the northeast quadrant of the lake is 95% frozen, with lots of it 4-5" thick. Today, it has been singing. Very cool sounds and a sign that it is getting close to being safe. If we get the snow on Thursday as advertised, XC'ing on the lake should be very nice this weekend.

THE WEIRS CAM HAS ICE THE WEIRS CAM HAS ICE

wow, i am getting excited here folks seriously

Great reports. Thanks!

Just curious, what is the Northeast quadrant? When I went through Wolfeboro yesterday it was 100% open. Winter Harbor was less than 50% too. Looking at my lake chart, isn't Wolfeboro the Northeast quadrant? or are you talking more northeast as in Springfield Point?

The lake charts do not have north on the top. North is near the top left corner. Once the chart is oriented, you will better see the northeast corner, generally Melvin Village area.

I do not think the entire northeast quadrant is frozen right now, but there is ice up in that area.

R2B

I think Resident 2B explained it well. Wolfeboro can best be described as being located in the south east portion of the lake.

Location by subwatershed
 

Sorry for the confusion. It is a bit obscure to talk about a north-east quadrant when the lake is laid out along the glacial NW to SE corrider. Perhaps a better way is to refer to the subwatersheds. The map of these can be seen at the winnipesaukeegateway.org site, under watershed maps (click the "display subwatersheds" button). So, in those terms, the Moultonborough Inlet sub-watershed is frozen solid and quite safe in most spots. The Moultonborough Bay sub-watershed (which would include Melvin Village) is somewhat frozen, but has large areas of open water. The singing sounds (in the M'bay Inlet sub) have been going on for over 24 hours. It is caused by cracks forming in the ice. Cracks can go for hundreds of yards, and as they tear along from one point to another, the sound moves like when a boat goes by.

I posted a few photos taken of Alton Bay yesterday.

Still shaking my head after watching the guy walking near the open water near the town beach! :eek:

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...m/DSC_3584.jpg

better view here http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...hp?photo=18288

Definitely looks like open water a ways outside Melvin Village too. Love that singing ice sound too. Seems it is louder without snow on the ice.

Official 2012 Ice-in Thread
 

In keeping with tradition and philosophy (well mine anyway...) I am declaring this thread the Official Ice-in Thread rather than start a new one. Traditionally I start this thread in late Decemeber when it looks like the water is getting cold enough to freeze. It has been warm and I have been attending to other matters so am too late to start a new thread as this one has so much good info and pictures!

I love it when ice-in pics and discussion are all in one thread for easy reading. (again, just my philosophy, not a demand! :))

The Ice-In Pageisup at www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm.

Here you can watch the lake freeze from many different cams. I think this is the 8th year the page has been live!

This year is a new cam.... one that has an incredible view, and is much welcome.

Please wander on over and see if you can find it! Thanks to our newest webcam operator!!!!

The lake temp reported by the dam operators is 35 degrees. The broads can freeze when this thermometer is at that reading or a little below. We don't really know what the lake temp is out there, this is just historically what has happened over the last several years.

Let it ice, let it ice, let it ice.......

IG :D

Sorry for being so late this year

You weren't IG! The ice is! You are right on time. Just in time for "Ice-In"

:D

Measured 8 inches of ice Blackey's cove, about 1000 feet from shore......

That was EASY...Mr. Hughes has a cam at Minge Cove now??!!!

Can you still see open water if you look out from the cove. I am doing the derby there and am interested on how much its freezing, i drove up this weekend and it didnt look very safe up there.Thanks

I'm about half way down the cove, I didn't venture out far enough to see the outlet but would guess that beyond the entrance of the cove was not frozen yet. I think the cove is pretty much frozen, I drilled three holes as I walked out, all were 8 inches, I stopped because I ran out of time.

Center harbor was beginning to freeze, with I would say about 75% frozen, but it didn't look safe to me.

Thank You i appreciate it, Im staying on Wilson road for the derby, which i would assume is closer to the outlet but cant be too much. Its our first time on this area of the lake for the derby, but everything i hear says its a good area.. Please update if and when possible as i live about an hour and 15 minutes away

I'm guessing you will be ok as long as you head into the cove versus toward CH. Just drill before you get too far. Good luck, I'm an hour and 45 minutes away but should be up again Monday or Tuesday.

Welcome to the Forum!!

Winter festival
 

Does anyone know when the Alton winter festival is scheduled this year? Praying for cold !

President's weekend
 

Alton Winter festival or carnival will be held on Sunday Feb 19.

Using reverse logic, technically we already have Ice-In.

If Ice-out is when the Mount can navigate to all it's ports without hitting ice, then I guess Ice-In is once it can't get to it's ports without hitting ice.

Given Alton and Center Harbor have ice.... :cool:

Question for you weather pros. I've been following the weather out there for the past couple weeks due to the warm weather. I'm a bit concerned about ice for our trip out next month. I typically look at Weather.com but today looked at Accuweather.com and noticed there is a fairly substantial difference in the forcasted temps from one site to the other. For example for tomorrow weather.com has H16 & L-5 whereas accuweather.com has H22 & L1.
So my question is (especially for those who live there year round) which site do you feel more accurately predicts the weather/temps? FYI our place is in Meredith so that is the location I always search. Thanks.:D

I wouldn't use either one. Too generic and vanilla. NWS Gray Maine will give you a more detailed forecast hands down.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...2=-71.5043&e=1

Ice in
 

I really enjoy watching the live stream in Alton. About 7:15 AM I watched about a dozen people crossing the ice to fish. Enjoy. Any other places on the Lake that firm?

4 degrees in Merecith tonight and NO ice on the bay yet. Yay!!!!!!!!! Ready to put the boat in. :)

A bit too much wind tonight.

The bay will freeze tomorrow night. Let's hope it thickens up before the wind gets going again.

R2B

Monday Morning
 

I agree with R2B. We will see the lake skimmed over Monday when we wake up!

Noooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:laugh:

I think there will still be too much of a breeze........you guys are the experts though.

High pressure will move over us tonight. No isobars, no wind. Wind will drop off to calm between 11 PM and 1 AM, and with the wind going away, the temp will get down well below zero.

High confidence with this.

R2B

It also expect that we will see a lot of areas freeze over the next few days if the wind dies. It's certainly cold enough.

But as CLA pointed out in his "double-digit dates" note, the solar gain is already getting stronger.

I was amazed this morning when looking outside. We have a porch roof on our house that can be seen from an upstairs window. The area under the roof is unheated. The outside thermometer reading was 4 degrees. Despite all this, the black-shingled roof, facing the mid-morning sun, was melting the snow on the roof at an amazing pace. The water was just pouring off the roof.

The weather, as always, remains fascinating.