2018 Ice Out Progress
 

Like many who begin getting anxious this time of year and check the webcams several times a day for "clues" of signs of a pending ice out...I am now on the constant web cam watch looking for the sign I find most telling. That sign is from the Black Cat cam where there is a set of rocks in the lower center of the shot. In general, when there is open water out to those rocks, we are on a two weeks to ice out phase. As open water begins...that shot becomes one of my focal points. To this point, there is NO open water even around the rocks telling me we definetly won't see ice out for the April 1 opener.

I'm wondering what others use to guage their ice out estimates and where they now think we are at. Are there any clues that recent rains and wind is accelerating our progress? Any hope for ice out in the first week or two of April???

The ice out watch has begun!

I was out checking water depths this morning for a couple of jobs in and around the black cat island area and we have a firm 22 inches of ice on the lake. It may differ in other locations but not by much. My best guess at this point for ice out will be the first week of April.

Based on what I have seen and experienced on the ice this year, I do feel the ice will go out much quicker than normal. For the past couple weeks old ice fishing holes are opening up to become 2’ - 4’ in diameter making the lake very unsafe to be out on without extreme caution. While this is a normal occurrence, it doesn’t usually happen as quickly as it happened this year. I believe there are a couple of factors that have caused this. The first is the lack of snow cover on the ice for most of the season. The suns rays have really been able to work deep inside the ice weakening it immensely. Digging a hole in the ice a week or so ago at my bob house I couldn’t believe how soft that 20” of ice was! The second reason I believe is the water in the lake is warming quickly. It doesn’t take much just a degree or two to really work at the ice from below and I believe that is happening.

I still think I will be at my Camp come April 1st just not sure if ice out will be declared by then...it will be close.

Dan

Here’s a pic of what the ice looks like today in the broads. Still has a ways to go but as you can see it’s getting that dark gray color....

I always use LILY POND as an Ice Out Indicator. When Lily Pond starts to go, Ice out will be soon. When Ice is Totally off Lily Pond, Winnie will declared ICE-OUT within 7 or 8 days. Not 9 or 10, 7 or 8...

I had picked April 10th for ice out, now it looks at least a week earlier than that. Large dark patches are forming meaning that the ice candles are forming. Each sunny day will melt more ice from the bottom up and the structure will weaken.


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I was just wondering if there were still any fishing shanties out on the lake, like in Meredith Harbor, and is there a particular date that they have to be removed? I see from the photos that the ice is beginning to have that look. I appreciate the photos, thanks.

Only saw one
 

As of Saturday afternoon, I only saw one hut out in Ctr Harbor. All huts have been removed from Meredith Bay. Saw them tryiing to get one off the ice earlier in the week using a flat bed at the ramp in Meredith. They extended the ramp of the flatbed out as far as they could but there was still about 10 feet of water between the end of the ramp and edge of the ice. Even with all of the straps and chains, the
Hut literally became a "bob" house until they were able to somehow get it up and out.
Good news though, the ice looked pretty well cleaned off of trash.

Bobhouses have to be off any lake by April 1st. I would imagine that means before midnight on March 31st! April fools!🤡

Wow...I just requested to pick up my boat from storage on April 6 in hopes of spashing her on April 7. I may have to push that up a week if this prediction is true. I'm suprised how many are anticipating IceOut at the beginning of April given reports of 20" of ice. Can't imagine we lose 20" in just 24 days but I like the optimism. I'm hearing a major storm may hit Wed. If heavy snow...I'm hoping that may accelerate Ice Out by pushing the ice underwater but am thinking it could insulate it and slow the process.

Mike,

I think a storm with significant snowfall on Wednesday would be a game changer as it would definitely insulate and impede the thawing process by blocking the suns rays.

Usually I love and want snow but at this point I’m ready for open water and spring salmon!

Dan

The warm weather really opened up the water near the shore around Cattle landing. open water extending a good 20 feet or more. It seemed like it happened in a matter of 3-4 days.

Currently looks like 8"-12" of snow this Wednesday-Thursday.

Of course, they were also saying 3"-5", or 1"-3", or just rain... depending on what time you looked at the reports.


Salmon - yum!

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Travel will be very difficult to
impossible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches are
expected.


This would have been nice a couple months ago, now not so much.

Gotta go and get more shear bolts for the snowblower...:(

Yup...could really screw up the early ice out I was hoping for!

Dan

Good news. Fire up the sled.............:cheers:

Winter fun is pretty much over
 

The thing is about snow this time of year, it is more of an annoyance. There are a lot of bare spots showing and a foot of snow will not be enough to groom or make the ice safe. The high temps after the storm are supposed to be around 40 for the next 5 days so melting will continue. Yeah, it might slow ice out a bit but no hard freeze is in the forecast. Accuweather only predicts one day through the end of March that will be below freezing for a high temp.

I have a dirt driveway and it is muddy now. The guy who plows will not be able to clear it fully because he would dig up the mud. So he will clear the upper layer and pack down the rest. All the rest will be slush the next day.

Yes, my driveway is dirt as well. I plow wth a blade on my Kubota and will need to keep the blade lifted a few inches to avoid the muddy mess below. As you say, the snow will pack well.

Oh Well...
 

So much for my hopeful thoughts of an early April ice out! With the snow cover we received yesterday and the upcoming 10 day forecast for lows in the teens and low to mid 20's, things are definitely not looking good!! Possibly more snow on Monday now too!!

Here is a pic from this morning

Sheesh!...

Dan

It ain’t over til the fat lady sings, Dan!

Congratulations....way to ruin another thread with your insatiable desire to inject politics into any topic!

No politics...just an old saying with a pic of a fat lady! First one that came up when I googled fat lady!
:D:D:D

From the water temperature page, 39-degrees on March 6 is a lot warmer than other years, so what's warming up the water?

Is there a new nuclear power plant hidden away somewhere in Tuftonboro, that discharges warm water in the lake, or what?

There were active water bars flowing water to the lake the weekend of the Winni Derby and they never refroze. Earliest I recall seeing them in many years.

Your right! ...The last time the temperature was this warm at this time of year was in 2012 and ice out occurred on March 23rd! This recent storm and upcoming colder weather is what will extend ice out unfortunately!! :(:(

Dan

Nuclear reactors don't discharge warm water, the cooling towers takes some of the steam/water vapor and turns it back into water. This water along with fresh water is fed back into the reactor and starts the process all over again.
You must of seen the big cooling towers near the reactor.

Cooling towers.... not always
 

Some nuclear plants have cooling towers, but others (like nearby Seabrook Station) don't. Seabrook has a massive tunnel going into the ocean to cool the water.

From the picture link, you can see - no tower! But, I don't think it is close enough to the lake to be the root cause ;)

Seabrook Station discharged warm water back into the ocean after the cooling process. There are intake and discharge lines that extend a few miles offshore. There used to be good fishing in that area :)

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...charge_tunnels

Looks like someone beat me to it!

Your mostly right as Seabrook doesnt use cooling towers but it does have some as a backup for the unlikely evnt of an earthquake closing the intake tunnels.
From an article:
That step requires federal approval because the cooling tower is used as a failsafe in the event a major earthquake closes the tunnels that bring seawater into the plant to cool the reactor.

Good Lord!

4 degrees for a low on Saturday, 7 degrees for a low on Sunday, 9 degrees for a low on Monday, more snow on Wednesday and Thursday.... Being at my camp with an umbrella drink on April 1st is definitely out!! At this rate, I'm hoping to be out there May 1st!!! :eek::eek: I hate the month of March!!

Rant mode off...

Dan

I feel your pain Dan. I'm trying to find a silver lining in all this and it is: all this snow will insultate the ice someone from the frigid overnight temps this weekend and hopefully prevent ice GROWTH. Meanwhile, I'm hoping the ice is being eaten away from the water below. With higher sun and most daytime temps above freezing (except this weekend)...I've got hope that the ice is decaying everyday and that we still see ice out by mid-April (I'm a dreamer).

Boat pickup from storage is March 31....still dreaming....

May not be able to get the boat in on 4/1, but should be able to cast a few lines.

Where was the pic taken at??...

Dan

I drove by Massebessic today and was suprised that the entire west side looks wide open. The east side also looked mostly open with some ice in coves but in front of the park was wide open. I don't usually watch Massy as a sign for how close Winni is to ice out but have to imagine they can't be more than a few weeks apart.

Seeing the open water along the shorelines in the webcams in encouraging as it will give ice room to move in the wind and perhaps crack or weaken...though no signs of that on the big lake yet. I'm disappointed that a few cams are no longer functioning that were major indicators for me. One was Black Cat and the other was in Alton Bay. The remaining cams are not great for progress checking. I may have to take a drive around the lake next weekend.

When I lived in Chester, Massy was my indicator and a great one! When ice was gone at Massy it was exactly two weeks for ice out on winni like clockwork. That is encouraging!

Dan

So you're forecasting ice out in 2 weeks? The lows for the next 10 days are all below freezing. I would think they have to be above freezing with highs considerably higher for ice out.

Berlin was -21 this am without the windchill factor.


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No I’m not as Mike only said ice was mostly gone but not all gone. There will probably be some refreezing with this cold weather. Once ice is ALL gone on Massy it’s has been my experience, or at least for a ten year span, that ice will be out on winni in two weeks thereafter...

Dan

Sort of
 

Yes, it is encouraging that we are getting closer to summer. But, if you have docks on the lake the movement of the ice in the spring can cause major damage. Even if you run a circulator all winter the spring movement of multi ton icebergs can wipe out your dock or damage your waterfront in seconds.

That is discouraging! Been there and paid the price!

If you have an ice eater, controlled by a timer/temperature switch, you may have been surprised yesterday afternoon, about 4-pm, when your ice eater powered up, splishy-splashy, for the first time in maybe two weeks.

What was not so small areas of open water, expanding like 'The Blob', has re-froze back to ice ..... could be this winter's last blast?

If I remember correct, the tropic of cancer for the Unites States, is located between Florida and Cuba, somewhere in the ocean out there; on Tuesday, March 20, 2018 at about 4-pm, the sun will be directly overhead at noon, with 12-hours daylight, and 12-hours night, and marks the start of the spring season by custom in the U.S.