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-   -   "Official" Ice Out Thread (https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24296)

chaseisland 04-21-2019 05:58 PM

Oh fudge
 
Ice out was just declared in my vodka on the rocks, Woe is me!

MAXUM 04-21-2019 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 8gv (Post 310023)
So we are still on track for 4/22 at 3pm then.

I shall prepare my acceptance speech. ;)

That would be to controversial. :emb:

FlyingScot 04-21-2019 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joey2665 (Post 310037)
Are we really to the point that we do not believe anything anymore? We are questioning the agenda of an article written almost 100 years ago.

No on both counts--

It is the agenda of people using the article today that has been questioned.

It is climate change deniers who have a hard time believing things in the face of overwhelming evidence.

joey2665 04-21-2019 11:56 PM

"Official" Ice Out Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingScot (Post 310056)
No on both counts--



It is the agenda of people using the article today that has been questioned.



It is climate change deniers who have a hard time believing things in the face of overwhelming evidence.



Sorry on both accounts. They are denying the source author of the article and I do think climate change is over exaggerated


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sladd 04-22-2019 07:01 AM

Yesterday after I drive on Rte 11 from Alton to Meredith and didn’t see any ice. Anyone know how Wolfboro looks?


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TiltonBB 04-22-2019 07:22 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bear Islander (Post 310036)
Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.

Your presumptions could not be more incorrect. And I assume you know what is often said about people who assume things. The article was emailed to me by a friend. I laughed when I read it because of the last sentence and I shared it because I though other people would too. It's that simple.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingScot (Post 310024)
It's kind of silly to suggest that because somebody may have been wrong a hundred years ago that the entire scientific community is wrong today. And it's ironic to use a fact check site that may show one article in favor of climate change denial when that same site likely shows about a thousand (a million?) other references that support climate change

I am not sure when you had the time to interview "the entire scientific community" but you must have missed a few scientists. I can assure you that there are plenty of scientists that disagree with a lot of the global warming or climate change (or whatever they call it this week) theories.

I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true.

From another source:

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists.

The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times."


So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them.

In life, and in politics, that can often work against you.

And then there is this:

31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot) :)

8gv 04-22-2019 07:58 AM

Yeah but...

Did Emerson get the plane out of the hangar yet?

I have been running the fog machine all night...

MAXUM 04-22-2019 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sladd (Post 310062)
Yesterday after I drive on Rte 11 from Alton to Meredith and didn’t see any ice. Anyone know how Wolfboro looks?


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As of Saturday....

Ice in there nothing solid looked like ice that was blowing in from the broads that was chunks from elsewhere. It's pretty much an ice flow that shifts around with the prevailing wind. Guaranteed it will "sink" by mid week ;)

FYI water levels right now are HIGH!

It'll be gone this week.

In other news... parking lot was full at the state boat ramp in Alton Bay.

Top-Water 04-22-2019 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MAXUM (Post 310069)
Guaranteed it will "sink" by mid week ;)

Would you know how long it takes for Marine Patrol to have the sunken ice marked off. :D: What color buoys do they use for sunken ice. ;);)

ApS 04-22-2019 09:03 AM

When Did Climate Never Change?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingScot (Post 310024)
It's kind of silly to suggest that because somebody may have been wrong a hundred years ago that the entire scientific community is wrong today. And it's ironic to use a fact check site that may show one article in favor of climate change denial when that same site likely shows about a thousand (a million?) other references that support climate change

When politics (and money) is involved?

https://i.servimg.com/u/f91/18/11/38/95/1yn2xh10.jpg

webmaster 04-22-2019 09:30 AM

Just posted by Emerson Aviation:

Quote:

Center Harbor Bay and beyond. The Northern sections of the Lake is still encased in ice. This was from last night before sunset. We'll be back up later this morning. Probably a couple more days.

Slickcraft 04-22-2019 10:12 AM

2 Attachment(s)
I am surprised at that so long after mid lake being clear of ice.

In the mean time we got the water in on Welch yesterday and were rewarded with a pretty nice sunset.

MAXUM 04-22-2019 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Top-Water (Post 310071)
Would you know how long it takes for Marine Patrol to have the sunken ice marked off. :D: What color buoys do they use for sunken ice. ;);)

There was heated debate over this at the MP HQ.

DPW thought it appropriate to float some "frost heave" signs over them.

MP wanted to attach 2 foot long reflective hot pink noodles to them. Secretly it's believed the reason why is a trip to the hardware store is rewarded with free super duper coffee which does not compare to the stuff they have at the MP HQ and they are always looking to bling out their patrol boats with random trinkets from the discount bargain bin at the front of the store.

Who will win this epic battle? Guess we will wait and find out!

Unnamed, but well known sources from within Emerson Aviation familiar with this have assured the public that they will provide photos from the air of marked areas of sunken ice.

Bizer will be also updating their 2019 navigational charts with the newly created "seasonal" markings complete with GPS coordinates. Laminated charts will not be available till June.

First printed, Associated Press, April 22, 1922.

Bear Islander 04-22-2019 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiltonBB (Post 310064)
Your presumptions could not be more incorrect. And I assume you know what is often said about people who assume things. The article was emailed to me by a friend. I laughed when I read it because of the last sentence and I shared it because I though other people would too. It's that simple.



I am not sure when you had the time to interview "the entire scientific community" but you must have missed a few scientists. I can assure you that there are plenty of scientists that disagree with a lot of the global warming or climate change (or whatever they call it this week) theories.

I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true.

From another source:

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists.

The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times."


So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them.

In life, and in politics, that can often work against you.

And then there is this:

31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot) :)

It's incredible how people can get sucked into internet fakes. That "Petition" has been circulated for more that twenty years. Snopes declare it to be false. Included as signatories are the Spice Girls band and most of the character in Star Wars. And the funding originated with the oil industry.

It only takes a few seconds to check out things on Snopes BEFORE you post.

joey2665 04-22-2019 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by webmaster (Post 310076)
Just posted by Emerson Aviation:

I guess the wind blew all the ice into Center Harbor

Garcia 04-22-2019 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiltonBB (Post 310064)
Your presumptions could not be more incorrect. And I assume you know what is often said about people who assume things. The article was emailed to me by a friend. I laughed when I read it because of the last sentence and I shared it because I though other people would too. It's that simple.



I am not sure when you had the time to interview "the entire scientific community" but you must have missed a few scientists. I can assure you that there are plenty of scientists that disagree with a lot of the global warming or climate change (or whatever they call it this week) theories.

I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true.

From another source:

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists.

The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times."


So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them.

In life, and in politics, that can often work against you.

And then there is this:

31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot) :)

Here's a link to the Snopes article: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/30...limate-change/

The beauty of the information age - one can always find something to support a position!

An entertaining distraction while I wait for the ice to go out...

DEJ 04-22-2019 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bear Islander (Post 310080)
It's incredible how people can get sucked into internet fakes. That "Petition" has been circulated for more that twenty years. Snopes declare it to be false. Included as signatories are the Spice Girls band and most of the character in Star Wars. And the funding originated with the oil industry.

It only takes a few seconds to check out things on Snopes BEFORE you post.

:offtopic:
This is a thread about ice conditions on the lake, please stay on topic or start another thread.

Mink Islander 04-22-2019 12:50 PM

How many moderators does the forum need?
 
You gotta complaint about what’s happening on a particular thread, I suggest you relay your concern to the moderator rather than playing net nanny for the rest of us. He’s actually does quite a good job if you let him.

Just sayin’.

Oh, and I know, I’m contributing by bitching about the people who are bitching! LOL.

JasJackson 04-22-2019 01:03 PM

2 Attachment(s)
Center Harbor is clearing quite nicely from the pics Emerson posted on FB 4 hours ago. 2 views by Long Island Bridge near Trexlers.

JasJackson 04-22-2019 01:05 PM

Top: a view looking NW towards Center Harbor. Bottom: a view looking SE into Moultonborough Bay

Bear Islander 04-22-2019 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DEJ (Post 310093)
:offtopic:
This is a thread about ice conditions on the lake, please stay on topic or start another thread.

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

LIforrelaxin 04-22-2019 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bear Islander (Post 310100)
Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

I agree .....

However your stance of ice out getting later over time, indicates not necessarily global warming, but rather a shift in the timing of the season, in our "calendar year"..... These things can be shown or not scientifically, however screaming global warming has a much better chaotic effect to it.

I am not saying that global warming isn't a real thing.... but I also believe with more study we might find some additional shifts and re-alignments going on, as mother natures determines and figures out how to deal with the biggest environmental challenge on earth "MAN"

Yep I just went there............

DEJ 04-22-2019 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bear Islander (Post 310100)
Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

:offtopic:
PLEASE start another thread if you wish to discuss global warming, thank you.

DEJ 04-22-2019 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LIforrelaxin (Post 310101)
I agree .....

However your stance of ice out getting later over time, indicates not necessarily global warming, but rather a shift in the timing of the season, in our "calendar year"..... These things can be shown or not scientifically, however screaming global warming has a much better chaotic effect to it.

I am not saying that global warming isn't a real thing.... but I also believe with more study we might find some additional shifts and re-alignments going on, as mother natures determines and figures out how to deal with the biggest environmental challenge on earth "MAN"

Yep I just went there............

:offtopic:
PLEASE start another thread if you want to continue to discuss global warming. Thanks.

thinkxingu 04-22-2019 02:34 PM

*Steps in, looking for discussion about ice out and climate change, finds DEJ posting more requests to separate off-topic posts than actual off-topic posts, steps out...after wondering for a moment whether or not someone will actually count the number of DEJ requests or will recognize hyperbole*

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webmaster 04-22-2019 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bear Islander (Post 310100)
Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

The problem is that this thread is for Ice-Out updates. If you want to start another thread about Climate Change and the lake you are welcome to do so but this thread should be about the status of the lake ice during this period.

For those interested in that other topic check the data on our Ice-Out page that shows the Ice-Out dates for the last 130 or so years.

JasJackson 04-23-2019 06:10 AM

With the latest view from Center Harbor Inn, it looks as though the Mount Washington can leave her winter port and head back to The Weirs...

https://centerharborinn.com/winnipesaukee-webcam/

Ice out 4/23/19 @ 6:10a? Wakey wakey eggs ‘n bakey Emerson Aviation!

ericnh 04-23-2019 07:55 AM

Still ice in Center Harbor bay
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JasJackson (Post 310144)
With the latest view from Center Harbor Inn, it looks as though the Mount Washington can leave her winter port and head back to The Weirs...

https://centerharborinn.com/winnipesaukee-webcam/

Ice out 4/23/19 @ 6:10a? Wakey wakey eggs ‘n bakey Emerson Aviation!

Drove through Center Harbor on Monday afternoon and still has plenty of ice.

rsmlp 04-23-2019 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by webmaster (Post 310113)
The problem is that this thread is for Ice-Out updates. If you want to start another thread about Climate Change and the lake you are welcome to do so but this thread should be about the status of the lake ice during this period.

For those interested in that other topic check the data on our Ice-Out page that shows the Ice-Out dates for the last 130 or so years.

Right on. BTW, a cursory review of ice out dates suggests the median to be right about now, maybe a day later or so.

ApS 04-23-2019 08:24 AM

Watching Ice Melt...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bear Islander (Post 310100)
Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake? I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

Yeah! Where was Emerson Aviation in 1887?

Oh wait: Emerson Aviation has just made an announcement—which I quote:

Quote:

"Covfefe"
;)

Fever29 04-23-2019 11:32 AM

Emerson just posted an update... looks like ice out could be this afternoon!

"Closing in on ice out. As of 11:00 Center Harbor is holding on but just barely."

nj2nh 04-23-2019 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bear Islander (Post 310100)
Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.



Earliest ice out ever was in 2016. So much for it getting later.


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Biggd 04-23-2019 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nj2nh (Post 310181)
Earliest ice out ever was in 2016. So much for it getting later.


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That was a strange winter. I remember walking around Meredith at Christmas time in a T-shirt.

pondguy 04-23-2019 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fever29 (Post 310175)
Emerson just posted an update... looks like ice out could be this afternoon!

"Closing in on ice out. As of 11:00 Center Harbor is holding on but just barely."

It could sink any minute now ! :emb:

MDoug 04-23-2019 02:27 PM

Bear Power Restored
 
NHEC crew got to Bear when ice cleared enough and restored power just now.:)

Pricestavern 04-23-2019 02:44 PM

10 Year Average Ice-Out Dates
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bear Islander (Post 310100)
Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

MAXUM 04-23-2019 02:49 PM

See there you go, proof that ice sinks faster today than it did in the late 1800's. ;)

nj2nh 04-23-2019 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pondguy (Post 310190)
It could sink any minute now ! :emb:



I read an article recently that sinking ice is a myth. It cannot and does not sink. Always thought it did, too.


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Fever29 04-23-2019 04:00 PM

1 Attachment(s)
So close!!

Barney Bear 04-23-2019 04:13 PM

Oh Well!
 
Missed my guess of 1:23 PM. this afternoon. Maybe next year. 🐻


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